HEEEEEEERE THEY COME!
That has been the call since the mid-’70s from the track announcer for harness races at the Meadowlands Racetrack, where the first turn sits about 500 feet from the corner of the West end zone at MetLife Stadium.
And indeed the horses (otherwise known as the four best teams in the NFL) are behind the starting gate and moving up — the Patriots and Broncos in Denver, the ’Niners and Seahawks in Seattle. Any which way it shakes out, there will be a great matchup for Super Bowl XLVIII.
But before they get here, these four would-be Super teams will have to go one last mile, and bettors will have one final chance to win enough cash to turn that 6-foot sub and bag of chips into filet mignon and shrimp for the Super Bowl party, or better yet, a ticket to the game.
Patriots (+5¹/₂) over BRONCOS, Under 56: Everyone is going to look first to Tom Brady versus Peyton Manning. They have met 18 times, with Brady winning 14, including the first six and last three. Manning’s success came during a 4-1 stretch from 2005-09, when the Colts were at the height of their powers.
But when Manning plays the Patriots, he’s not so much going head-to-head with Brady as he is matching wits with Bill Belichick, and if you add the split of two AFC East games in 2000 (pre-Brady) to the record, Manning is 5-15 versus Belichick. (And that includes Belichick going for it on fourth-and-2 from his own 28, up by six with 2:08 to go in the 2009 meeting, virtually handing Manning a 35-34 win).
Even in recent times, Brady and the Patriots have gotten the better of the Broncos. Their last meeting was Nov. 24, when the Patriots survived a 24-0 ambush and roared back to win 34-31 in overtime. Brady made mincemeat out of the Denver defense in the second half. Just as he did in the last playoff meeting between the teams, when the Patriots nuked the Tim Tebow Broncos 45-10. New England’s most recent visit to Denver, earlier that season, produced a 41-23 Patriots’ romp. Manning was not there for those two games, but that was Brady-Belichick versus John Fox’s Broncos and are legitimate games to factor in.
Here’s another: Belichick is 19-8 in the postseason, and in only five of the 27 games has his team lost by more than this spread. (If you want to turn that around to say five of his eight playoff losses — including one with the 1994 Browns — have been by sizable margins, go right ahead … at your own risk).
Focusing only on current form, the Patriots seem to have the edge there as well. While all season it appeared Manning had the unstoppable offensive machine, now you can spot flaws (such as Eric Decker turning a touchdown catch into a tip-toe Chargers interception). Now it’s the Patriots’ offense that has all the answers, even without Rob Gronkowski. They’ll smash it all day with LeGarrette Blount and Stevan Ridley, who combined for six rushing touchdowns last week, and off of that, Brady will still find the mismatches with Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman and the kid receivers.
Lastly, going with the Under here. Figuring the strategy for both teams will be to play keep away from the other quarterback, not to outgun him. Looking for a lot of long drives and 2-yard runs on third-and-1 and some punts inside the 5 to keep the total down.
Patriots, 27-24
SEAHAWKS (-3¹/₂) over 49ers; Under 39¹/₂ : This is just a gut-feeling pick, because there’s no way to refute the arguments the Niner backers will be making. The Niners already have won two playoff road games, one in the single-digit freezer in Lambeau, another in a loud Charlotte stadium against a brass-knuckle Panthers defense. If you wanted to list the best 20 players between the Niners and Seahawks, you’d probably have 12 or 13 from San Francisco. They have a coach in Jim Harbaugh who has been to the Super Bowl and a mantra to get back and take what should have been theirs last season.
But here are the reasons for the Seahawks: They have won four of the last five at home against the Niners by a total of 139-58. The 12th man has a lot to do with that, believe it. Russell Wilson simply was better than Colin Kaepernick during the regular season — more yards, higher percentage, higher quarterback rating and better touchdown-to-interception ratio (26/9 to Kaepernick’s 21/8).
Mostly, it’s just a feeling this is the Seahawks’ year, that Pete Carroll will bring his team to the Meadowlands, where he once was fired by a Jets owner who just had to have Rich Kotite.
Seahawks, 14-10
LAST WEEK: 1-2-1 games; 2-2 Over/Unders
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Finished season 8-10-1.