The Mets want to be the Red Sox. They want to use the model Boston deployed so successfully last offseason, eschewing the top of the free-agent and trade markets and, instead, aggressively working the middle market as a way to add as many good players as possible.
Think of it like diversifying your portfolio rather than putting all your money in one dynamic, but combustible stock.
But there already are a few problems with this strategy beyond trying to get as many moves right as Boston did:
1) The Red Sox invested more than is generally perceived, about $61.5 million in 2013 alone, to land Ryan Dempster, Shane Victorino, J.D. Drew, Joel Hanrahan, Jonny Gomes, Mike Napoli, Koji Uehara, David Ross and Craig Breslow, or roughly twice as much — I have been told — as the Mets are aiming to inject into their 2014 payroll.
From conversations with multiple executives, I sense the magic number is about $30 million for next year’s budget, to get the overall payroll into the $90 million-ish range again, with plans to steadily increase that over subsequent seasons.
The better model, therefore, might be another AL playoff team, the Indians, who spent roughly $36 million in 2013 on Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn (who was a Mets target last offseason), Brett Myers, Drew Stubbs, Mike Aviles and Mark Reynolds. Cleveland’s success rate with that group was not nearly as good as Boston’s.
2) The Mets are not the only team talking about the Red Sox plan. There are a lot of teams with available cash — more now with the new national TV contract putting an additional $20-million to-$25 million annually in each team’s coffers beginning in 2014 — and many of those clubs are indicating they are going to shun Shin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury at the top of the market and, well, diversify the portfolio.
Which means the middle class is about to become the upper-middle class as the good-to-very good free agents are going to get bid up by multiple teams. Thus, the prices and competition are about to become more problematic for the Mets.
Nevertheless, Sandy Alderson has vowed this was the offseason when real upward mobility — in better spending and more elite talent accumulation — would begin. His administration has had three years to refurbish the farm system and, more importantly, the pacts of Johan Santana, Jason Bay (for the most part because he has deferred dollars) and Frank Francisco now are off the books.
Alderson said he expects a winning record and a contender next season. Jeff Wilpon added: “I want to get out of the hope business. It’s not a good business model.”
This would all be easier if Matt Harvey topped the rotation next year. Because having an ace is a great starting point for any contender. But also because it would make trading some of the organizational pitching depth easier. The
Mets will know by Dec. 1 if Harvey will have Tommy John surgery, and the expectation is still that he will go under the knife. But even if he doesn’t, the tear in his elbow is a time bomb that hangs over all plans.
Still, the Mets have enough financial and prospect flexibility to see if Alderson can upgrade the team. Here is where I think they are headed:
MOVE A FIRST BASEMAN — There is a sentiment in the organization wanting to trade Ike Davis, either deal Lucas Duda or put him in the minors for depth, shift Daniel Murphy to first and trade pitching depth for someone like Angels’ second baseman Howie Kendrick. The Angels are certainly open to using Kendrick to get controllable pitching.
This would be a plan favored by Terry Collns, who loves that Murphy is one of his few hitters not spooked by Citi Field’s dimensions.
But the call is going to be made by Alderson, and he believes in an offense that gets on base and hits homers, and that puts Duda more in line if the Mets do not get outside help.
What I sense is the growing feeling in the organization to trade Davis. Yes, Mets officials worry his power might play elsewhere. But they worry more that he opens next season 2-for-25 with 12 strikeouts, and they run on the same old Mets treadmill to nowhere again.
Every team is on the lookout for the next needed-a-change-of-scenery lefty slugger (think Chris Davis, Brandon Moss, Mike Carp), and so there will be interest in Davis. Colorado and Milwaukee definitely need a first baseman, and Tampa Bay, Toronto, Minnesota, Cleveland and a few others could shift pieces around. Davis needs to be used by himself or in tandem with other pieces to bring back items that help the 2014 club.
DON’T BE AFRAID OF BIOGENESIS — The Mets might look into the top of the market, but there seems almost no chance they land big fish like Robinson Cano, Choo or Ellsbury. And, again, there is going to be competition in the middle.
That is why the expectation is that despite just finishing 50-game Biogenesis-related suspensions, Jhonny Peralta will get a two-year pact in the $16 million range and Nelson Cruz three years in the $35 million area. Both provide greatly craved righty power (both delivered it even after Biogenesis was closed down, perhaps instilling belief that if they didn’t find PEDs elsewhere that their power is real). Shortstops also are in limited supply, which will help Peralta.
The Mets should not be scared of the drug stigma. These are the kind of salaries they can afford and the kind of risks they should consider. They can’t open next year with Ruben Tejada at short and tepid power in the outfield corners.
If not Peralta — a limited defender — Oakland’s Jed Lowrie and Cleveland’s Asdrubal Cabrera are both a year from free agency, and you wonder if those proactive organizations would move a shortstop this winter. As for outfielders, the Dodgers have to turn four (Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig) into three. Crawford (who failed in a big northeastern city, Boston) and Puig are off-limits.
Kemp is fascinating for his high-end abilities. But multiple injuries leave you wondering about his durability. Ethier has four years at $71 million left and probably the more of that a team is willing to assume, the less it would have to give up in prospects.
The Rockies could make Carlos Gonzalez available, and the Mets would be part of a long line trying to land him, though it feels as if Colorado wouldn’t do it without the inclusion of Noah Syndergaard, and the Mets do not want to move him. NL batting champion Michael Cuddyer is a much more likely Mets-Rockies match. For now, Giancarlo Stanton is a pipe dream, unlikely to get on the trade market this offseason.
GET A VETERAN STARTER — With or without Harvey, the Mets should add a veteran who, besides ability, brings experience and leadership to a mostly young rotation. This is not Daisuke Matsuzaka. Tim Hudson fractured his ankle in a collision with Eric Young Jr. in July. He is 38 and probably would prefer to stay in Atlanta.
But if his physicals are good and he is available, he is just the kind of starter who would help the Mets in multiple ways.