For someone with two epic September collapses on his watch, Omar Minaya sure is a confident guy.
The Mets GM essentially brought back the same lineup that missed the playoffs on the final day of the season for the second year in a row, laying the blame instead on a bullpen that blew a mind-numbing 29 saves.
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With a revamped relief corps and a manager in Jerry Manuel under whom the Mets actually like playing, Minaya is convinced he found the answers to his club’s repeated late-season gagging.
Was it really all Aaron Heilman’s fault? We’ll see about that. For now, let’s start with a position-by-position outlook:
CATCHER
Brian Schneider is solid defensively but wields a highly suspect bat and can’t seem to stay healthy. The same injury issues dog backup Ramon Castro, which is why the Mets could quickly find themselves carrying three catchers again. That’s not good.
FIRST BASE
Carlos Delgado was a monster the second half of last season, hitting .308 with 27 homers and 80 RBIs from June 27 on — perhaps not coincidentally, soon after Willie Randolph was fired. Delgado is 36 but is healthy and in a contract year. If Citi Field turns out to be a hitter’s park, watch out.
SECOND BASE
Luis Castillo was Public Enemy No. 1 at Shea Stadium last year, at least when the since-traded Heilman wasn’t pitching, and will be in the fans’ crosshairs again this year. Castillo looked healthy and rejuvenated in spring training and appears determined to prove the boo-birds wrong.
SHORTSTOP
After flirting with dropping Jose Reyes to the No. 3 spot in spring training, Manuel wisely kept him at the top of the lineup. Reyes’ maturity remains a question mark and his career .336 on-base percentage is low for a premier leadoff hitter, but he still is the engine that makes the Mets go.
THIRD BASE
Reyes might make the Mets go, but David Wright is still The Franchise. Hits for power, hits for average, and his defense is getting better. He also is the consummate professional who took the Mets’ two collapses harder than anyone. Needs to hit better in the clutch, but Wright will remain a cornerstone for years to come.
LEFT FIELD
Daniel Murphy has all of 131 at-bats in the major leagues and will be an adventure in the field, but his bat and his determination at the plate had the Mets buzzing this spring. He’s a relentless and patient-beyond-his-years hitter who can hit righties and lefties with equal skill. A star in the making?
CENTER FIELD
It’s high time Mets fans stop harping on Carlos Beltran’s passive demeanor and start savoring arguably the best defensive center fielder in the game. Not only that, but Beltran also can be counted on for his usual 30-35 homers and 115 RBIs. Beltran’s monstrous showing in the World Baseball Classic was just a taste of what’s to come.
RIGHT FIELD
Signing 40-year-old Gary Sheffield at the end of spring training was a cheap gamble ($400,000), but it’s a gamble nonetheless. Sheffield hit .225 last year, hasn’t played the outfield regularly since 2006, and is known as a polarizing figure in the clubhouse. Ryan Church and Fernando Tatis could still end up with a lot of playing time.
BENCH
Tatis and Castro offer the Mets plenty of power, which isn’t something a lot of benches can boast. Reed is a very productive fourth outfielder, while Alex Cora is a dependable middle infielder with championship experience. Overall, a promising group.
ROTATION
Johan Santana is a beast who probably would have won his third Cy Young last year if not for the bullpen blowing a whopping seven of his games. After that, it gets dicey. There’s a lot of promise, especially with No. 2 starter Mike Pelfrey, but Oliver Perez and John Maine are question marks and the fifth starter could be a revolving door.
BULLPEN
From Heilman to Duaner Sanchez to Scott Schoeneweis, the nightmare figures from last year’s relief disaster have been cleaned out. Replacing them was expensive, particularly $37 million for Francisco Rodriguez, but Minaya considers it money well spent and the problem solved. K-Rod and J.J. Putz had better live up to expectations early, though, or the atmosphere at Citi Field could turn as ugly as it was at Shea.
MANAGER
Manuel is an affable, popular boss who seems to get the most out of his players. At the same time, he’s not afraid to lay down the law and won’t be a pushover. Manuel is signed for just two years at a mere $1 million per season, so consider him on a short leash. Not making the playoffs could get him fired.
PREDICTION
94-68, first place in the NL East, lose to Cubs in the NLCS.
METS ESSENTIALS
Most important everyday player: Jose Reyes. His bat, energy, speed on the basepaths and defense are all essential to everything the Mets hope to do.
Most important pitcher: The obvious choice is Johan Santana, but the Mets missed the playoffs last season because the bullpen blew 29 saves. So we’ll go with new closer Frankie Rodriguez.
Will have a bigger year than expected: Luis Castillo. Mets fans might openly loathe him, but his poor 2008 season had more to do with since-resolved knee problems than declining skills.
Likely to disappoint: Oliver Perez. The Mets took an awfully big gamble giving the erratic left-hander $36 million over three years. That’s a lot of money and security for someone with no long-term track record of success.
Key call-up: Nick Evans. This is assuming, of course, he doesn’t make the team out of spring training. The kid can rake and might be the starting first baseman in 2010.
Biggest managerial decision: What will Jerry Manuel do if the volatile K-Rod falters early? Keep in mind Manuel has another former All-Star closer, J.J. Putz, as the current set-up man. Watch the sparks fly if Manuel has to make the switch.
Don’t be surprised if … Carlos Delgado picks up where he left off with the bat during the second half of last season. Delgado is healthy, likes playing for Manuel and is in a contract year. Watch out.
Sure to make Mets fans grumble: The first blown save by the retooled bullpen, simply because of all the horrible flashbacks it will cause.
The Mets will make the playoffs if … the bullpen is passable. Keep in mind that, even with the eye-popping 29 blown saves, the Mets didn’t miss out on the playoffs until the final day of the season.
The Mets will miss the playoffs if … both K-Rod and Putz falter. The closer position is that important, especially in the NL East (see Lidge, Brad).
Injury that would hurt the most: Anything involving Santana’s pitching arm. He arguably is the best pitcher in baseball, and the Mets are toast if their $137.5 million ace goes down for a lengthy amount of time.