Roy Halladay would increase the Yankees’ chances of making the playoffs by 15 percent.
Forecasted to make 15 starts if acquired by the Yankees this week, their winning percentage in their remaining games would improve significantly, according to AccuScore.com.
In 10,000 season simulations, the Yankees improved by an average of 2.1 wins and their chances of making the playoffs improved from 65 percent today to nearly 80 percent with the right-hander in their rotation.
With Halladay, the Yankees have the second-most forecasted wins and second highest chance of making the playoffs in the American League. The Red Sox are No. 1 in both categories.
Today’s AccusScore projection: 90-72; 30.3 percent chance to win AL East; 65 percent chance to make the playoffs.
The projection with Halladay: 93-69; 43.1 percent chance to win AL East; 79.5 percent chance to make the playoffs.
The Yankees will begin the second half with a 51-37 record, three games behind the Red Sox in the division but with a 2-1/2-game lead over Texas for the wild card.
Halladay’s projection with the Yankees is a 9-3 record with a 2.84 ERA. This is better than the 8-3 record he is projected to have with the Blue Jays.
AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, matchup, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 Season one at bat at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game, AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the World Series.