THE Yankees found $181 million lying around last offseason, and made a late, victorious bid to corral Mark Teixeira, so never say never when it comes to the Yankees and spending.
But the initial read as the winter bazaar opens is that the Yankees do not intend to make a play for the three biggest free agents: Jason Bay, Matt Holliday and John Lackey. After signing the three biggest free agents last offseason (Teixeira, CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett), the Yankees just might be boring this winter.
This is not about need, because corner outfield and starting pitcher are priorities to fortify what is now a champion. But based on conversations with multiple Yankees officials, I sense that financially and philosophically the Yankees will not big-game hunt in free agency.
Will they investigate? Of course. They are the Yankees, so they will stay connected if for no other reason than to make sure their adversaries pay premiums (think the Red Sox taking Sabathia to dinner last offseason with no intentions of signing him just to make sure the Yankees paid top price).
But these are the Yankees of Hal Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman now, so there is greater prudence when it comes to dollars and age. In order to incorporate Teixeira into the budget last offseason, Cashman promised Hal to cut elsewhere with a long-range plan to drop under a $200 million payroll, possibly as early as 2010.
That would be some trick because $100 million will be spent on Alex Rodriguez, Sabathia, Teixeira and Derek Jeter alone next year. In all, the Yankees have roughly $170 million committed to 13 players for 2010, including Kei Igawa, Andrew Brackman and Juan Miranda.
Also, over the past two offseasons, the Yankees have guaranteed $800 million to land Teixeira, Sabathia and Burnett plus retain Rodriguez, Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera. And the Yankees know they will have to sign Jeter to a long-term extension (think four years, $100 million) when his current deal expires. So behemoth payrolls are assured for a while, and so, therefore, are age concerns.
When next season begins, Rivera (age 40) and Jeter (35) will have one year left on contracts, Posada (39), Marte (35) and Swisher (30) will have two years left, Burnett (33) will have four, Sabathia (29) six, Teixeira (30) seven and Rodriguez (34) eight. The Yankees remained remarkably healthy in 2009. But they know age is a live grenade, and will be judicious about adding more for the long term.
When next season begins, Holliday will be 30, and Bay and Lackey will be 31. Holliday’s agent, Scott Boras, already has compared Holliday to Teixeira (eight years, $181 million). Lackey wants Sabathia money, but will probably fall to around five years at $100 million. Bay still could return to Boston, but if he leaves, expect a price in the $90 million for five-years range.
So signing any of the three would push the Yankees further into long-term financial or age issues they want to better control. In addition, many teams have fear over Lackey’s health because he has been on the disabled list each of the past two seasons. The Yankees think Bay is a below-average defender, whose shortcomings would be exposed more in Yankee Stadium’s big left field than playing in front of the Green Monster.
The Yankees like Holliday despite a worrisome AL cameo with Oakland, but they do not have the same concerns he could join the Red Sox that they did last year with Teixeira.
So what will the Yankees do? They will push to re-sign Johnny Damon and Andy Pettitte to one-year contracts, hoping that mitigates concerns about their age. Both Damon (37) and Pettitte (38) would have markets elsewhere, so if they want more dollars or years they must weigh how much being a Yankee means to two players who do seem to adore being here.
A tough call to let Hideki Matsui go was made tougher by his World Series MVP showing. His clutch, productive bat is not easy to dismiss. But at 35, on wounded knees, he is a designated hitter, and the Yankees want that slot for multiple older players. The heart says keep him, but logic dictates otherwise, unless, perhaps, Damon leaves.
My gut says the Yankees will try to get another productive season from an outfield of Damon, Swisher, Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner, with prospect Austin Jackson in the wings. Health permitting, the Yankees could try to re-sign Xavier Nady to a low-base plus incentive deal to augment the outfield corners/DH with his righty bat. Then, I think, they would push to sign Carl Crawford as a free agent after the 2010 season.
As for the rotation, the Yankees could go with Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes as their Nos. 4-5 starters with Chad Gaudin, Ian Kennedy and Alfredo Aceves for depth.
But they clearly will investigate surer rotation possibilities, specifically if Pettitte does not return. If Roy Halladay is again on the trade market, the Yankees will inquire, but they would have stronger interest if Seattle makes Felix Hernandez available. Robinson Cano could potentially be used as bait to play for a high-end pitcher, but the Yankees — as always — have to be careful not to rob too much of the lefty power (Cano, Damon, Matsui) so central to their success.