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In the fourth of a six-part series to get you prepared for your fantasy draft, Roto Files analyzes starting pitchers. Next week: closers and catchers.
What do aces CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Zack Greinke, Felix Hernandez and that creepy digital doppelganger of Tim Lincecum from the video-game commercials have in common? They all are trying to be a little bit more like Tim Lincecum.
In fantasy baseball realm, that is. Lincecum, the two-time reigning NL Cy Young winner and strikeout king, is the clear No. 1 in draft day’s arms race. He is 33-12 with 526 punchouts over the past two seasons for the Giants and an innings eater working in a pitcher’s park. The scary thing is, Lincecum turns 26 in June — he still might be getting better.
That’s not to say there’s anything freaky about the options after “The Freak.” First, there’s Halladay, who takes his precision workhorse act to Philadelphia, where at the very least he will trade seven or eight starts against the Yankees and Red Sox for seven or eight against the Nationals and Marlins. Atop the rotation of one of the best teams in a lower-caliber league, Halladay will ring up 17 wins or more with the usual 180-200 Ks and 3.00-ish ERA, fighting off the effects of homer-friendly Citizens Bank Park.
Next on Files’ list is Sabathia. A strikeout pitcher with the collective might of the pinstripes behind him, he should repeat as the AL wins leader. Greinke and Hernandez are studs who nonetheless present some question marks. Last year’s eye-popping 2.16 ERA and 1.07 WHIP were a kind of perfect storm for Greinke. Still, he won just 16 games for the dreadful Royals. The ERA inevitably will rise, and Kansas City will do him no favors in the wins column. King Felix also is coming off a lights-out ‘09 (19-5, 2.49, 217 Ks), but took a major innings leap (200 to 238) that could come back to haunt him.
AHEAD OF THE CURVE
The Tigers’ Justin Verlander heads the class of Cy Young contenders in the draft’s next tier, good buys in Round 4 and great pickups afterward. Verlander led all of baseball in strikeouts and innings last year; watch him closely for signs of wear and tear.
Dan Haren uses superb strikeout-to-walk ratios to quietly put up great numbers for the Diamondbacks — his 1.00 WHIP last season was the lowest since 2006 — and he is very durable, with at least 33 starts five years running. And lefty Jon Lester (10 strikeouts per nine innings last season) is ready to assume the mantle of Red Sox ace with a big 2010.
RISKY BUSINESS
Four of the past nine Cy Young winners enter this draft with a truth-or-dare vibe about them because of injury.
The Mets’ Johan Santana (2006 AL, elbow) still is an ace if you have the nerve. Jake Peavy (2007 NL, ankle) could be a mid-round gem for the White Sox. Arizona’s Brandon Webb (2005 NL, shoulder) is a non-starter until he actually makes it onto the mound. And Chris Carpenter (2006 NL, ever-present arm fears) was dynamite last season to the tune of 17 wins and a 2.24 ERA, the kind of dynamite that could blow up at any moment.
The other Cy Young winners, besides Lincecum, Greinke and CC, were Cliff Lee, a flyball pitcher who will benefit from Safeco Field’s dimensions and the Mariners’ terrific outfield defense, and Bartolo Colon, who should be drafted right after Sid Fernandez.
YOUNG GUNS
The best No. 2 starters available for fantasy purposes are youngsters without short enough track records to slip to the middle rounds. Personal favorites are Marlins flamethrower Josh Johnson and the Dodgers’ electric southpaw Clayton Kershaw. The Phillies’ Cole Hamels is poised for a major revival at age 26.