LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. — Cliff Lee is enjoying the equivalent of winning multiple state lotteries simultaneously.
So many moons are aligning in his favor that even the lefty’s agent, Darek Braunecker, could not contain the giddy reality that “it’s good to be Cliff Lee.”
It is fortunate for Lee that money already is being spent lavishly throughout baseball, better still for him that there is no obvious high-end starter Plan B to fall back upon if you don’t get Lee, and undeniably great for Lee that the team with the thickest wallet has a huge hunger for the ace.
That would be the Yankees. So the only potential stop sign between Lee and a record pitching contract — one that exceeds CC Sabathia’s seven-year, $161 million deal — is this: Do the Yankees really have a stop sign? Do they have a number they will reach, but not cross?
“I know what I am willing to do and what I am not willing to do,” GM Brian Cashman said yesterday in insisting that his club has the discipline to spend a lot — but not whatever it takes.
Cashman met with Braunecker yesterday afternoon and chatted again with him last night. There still was no bid officially extended, as Braunecker has determined a slow process when it comes to proposals. But that fits within how the Yanks usually pursue huge free agents: Let the rep find out the most he can get elsewhere and then bring it back to the Yanks to beat.
Within that structure, how high would the Yanks go?
In their strategy sessions, the Yanks have set their outer limits on Lee at guaranteeing a sixth year if that is what is needed to complete a signing and coming in at a maximum total somewhere between Johan Santana’s total contract ($137.5M) and Sabathia’s ($161M).
So my belief is the Yanks would go to six years in the range of $144M to $150M. That is $24M to $25M a year, which would break Sabathia’s pitching record for highest average per season on a multi-year contract without exceeding Sabathia’s overall total.
It is very possible that is higher than any other team will go. But this is a player-sided market right now, and Lee arguably is the most attractive player available. Foxsports.com reported last night that a team has expressed a willingness to go to seven years with Lee. Which fits the trend.
Did anyone see the Rockies extending Troy Tulowitzki to a 10-year contract when they did not have to? Did anyone see one-time All-Star Jayson Werth getting what is currently the 13th-largest package ever, $126M over seven years, from the Nationals?
If Colorado and Washington can deliver this kind of outlay, what would the sport’s financial behemoth do for Lee? If Werth can get seven years through his 38th birthday, shouldn’t the more desirable Lee, at the least, demand seven years through his 39th birthday?
The Yanks are saying that is a deal breaker, and so is trying to go north of Sabathia’s total. They claim they do not have desperation anywhere near the kind they had two years ago, when they opened their wallet to Sabathia because they so badly needed a No. 1 starter. Sabathia’s presence as an ace makes Lee a pleasant addition, but not a necessity, according to Cashman.
And you can make a case that the Yanks can win without Lee. But it is fragile. More so if Andy Pettitte retires. Even more so if the Yanks cannot unearth another quality starter if Lee slips away at a time when that entity does not appear obvious on the free-agent or trade markets.
Look at it like this: The Yanks will spend a minimum of $185M on non-Lee payroll next year. Do they want to put that at great peril by not spending, say, $25M additionally in 2017?
It is part of those moons aligning that makes it a great time to be Cliff Lee.
Braunecker sees all of these advantages. My suspicion is that all the “buzz” about Lee wanting to stay a Ranger that is permeating these Meetings is a plant to overheat the Yankees.
The Yanks promise not to be manipulated or pressured by buzz, or by Werth’s contract or anything else. Cashman acknowledged Lee would make the Yanks better, but “it has to be better within (budgetary) reason. Whether he is here or not, we will have a good team.”
But take a look at that rotation beyond the heavily worked Sabathia. What if the Yanks, for example, already know Pettitte is not coming back? And even if he is, the Yanks still have to trust in A.J. Burnett, hope for progression from Phil Hughes.
It all gives Lee more leverage in an offseason of overflow leverage. In an offseason when it is great to be Cliff Lee.