Sports

Supe ’dogs will cover vs. favored Niners

Today

RAVENS +3 1/2; Over 47 1/2: Young 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick is seeking to break significant new ground.

Just two quarterbacks who have made fewer league starts than Kaepernick have started in a Super Bowl: Jeff Hostetler, close to a touchdown underdog, but blessed with a superior defensive cast when the Giants took out Buffalo in XXV, and Vince Ferragamo, whose Rams were double-digit dogs against the Steelers in XIV but came from ahead to lose by a dozen. Kaepernick is looking to make it happen as a favorite.

It took Jerome Bettis, a significant defensive effort and some fascinating officiating to save Ben Roethlisberger’s bacon in a roughly parallel situation in Super Bowl XL in Detroit.

The Ravens arrive on the scene, employing linebacker Ray Lewis’ imminent retirement as a battle cry. It has worked so far, with the key troops healthier than they have been all year, because of judicious seasonal planning and the wonders of modern sports medicine. At his peak, Lewis was one of the handful of epic linebackers. Lewis isn’t that anymore, but crusades frequently work in this sport, and Lewis continues to effectively prod the troops.

Meanwhile, the Ravens seek to circle back toward new performance peaks, with their 2001 Super Bowl win against Jim Fassel’s Giants in the rearview mirror. They continue to prosper with their defensive core, a rapidly developing Joe Flacco at QB, and his unsurpassed postseason road record, the reliable former Rutgers RB Ray Rice, and the emotional rallying points of Lewis and Ed Reed (not to mention their late owner, Art Modell, who established the Ravens’ re-situation in Baltimore, to Cleveland’s eternal sorrow).

Though these Ravens snuffed San Fran by a modest 16-6 last year in Jim Harbaugh’s lone coaching loss to an AFC opponent to date, harbor a measure of confidence this will go “over” under Superdome conditions.

The Niners enjoy advantages in speed/quickness, and expect Coach Jim to seek to exploit these edges, especially their substantial stat edge when defending against the run. Look for RB Frank Gore to have a workmanlike rushing evening, and Kaepernick’s efforts should bring the “over” into range against the midrange interior of the Ravens pass defense, where Lewis is of scant aid. Expect an old-time effort from Randy Moss, as well, though Jerry Rice chuckles at Moss’ recent boast of being the best ever.

Since the Giants toppled the mentally exhausted Patriots in Super Bowl XLII, this space has highlighted seven of the eight beneficial Super Bowl spread/totals positions, with the Steelers’ near-miss against Green Bay in XLV the exception.

This is not the dream stylistic matchup the Ravens defense enjoyed against such exceptional historical (though largely immobile) pocket passers as Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, but while respecting the exceptional footspeed of a Kaepernick and the offensive system which has brought grief to Niners opponents, reflect upon the wrecking-crew carnage inflicted by Bernard Pollard upon multiple key Patriots offensive operatives at Gillette two weeks back and understand why we are reluctant to disembark from this runaway train.

This space did anticipate straight-up wins against the Broncos and Pats, and we not often are given to such extreme flights of fancy as forecasting touchdown-plus upsets.

The 49ers slapped the Packers around twice this year, and beat the Pats at Foxborough, but they were ground to gold dust by the Giants, had sustained problems with divisional rival St. Louis and were among those who couldn’t handle Seattle. We also continue to be less than sold on Kaepernick’s ability in domes. The Niners started slowly against Atlanta, as the Falcons built their substantial early advantage, then (much like in Atlanta’s narrow escape vs. the Seahawks) Matt Ryan and friends appeared to lose their focus.

The Harbaugh brothers? You have to love their intensity, and they know their business, but from true confidence comes poise (Horror Show Example A: Dick Vermeil’s Eagles, against the Raiders), and we anticipate Brother John displaying greater grace under pressure.

Even the “bizarre coincidence” gremlins are lining up on our side: In the four most recent home openers of the Eagles, the visitors (from 2009, forward), were the Saints, Packers and Giants — Supe winners, all … and the Eagles’ guests at The Linc in 2012, Week 2: the Ravens. Buy the ticket, take the ride, and dance with the girl who brung ya.

The pick: Ravens, 31-24.

LAST WEEK: 1-0-1, games; 0-2 over/unders.

POSTSEASON: 5-4-1, games; 4-6 over/unders.

Follow Richard Witt

on Twitter: @rich_witt1.