Entertainment

JAY-BC

THE smart money’s on ABC.

That’s the consensus that emerges when you talk to TV industry types about where Jay Leno will go after he turns “The Tonight Show” over to Conan O’Brien.

Why? Because ABC has the most to gain by hiring Leno and plunking him down between Letterman and Conan at 11:35 p.m.

With Leno, ABC has a once-in-a- blue- moon opportu nity to suddenly seize the lead in late- night after decades of play ing also-ran to NBC and CBS.

But what of “Night line” and Jimmy Kim mel, you ask? They will have to get out of the way.

And it won’t matter to the higher-ups at Disney if the news-di vision suits get their noses out of joint over losing their half- hour in late-night after 29 years.

Nothing against “Nightline” – it’s a fine show, better and livelier these days than it was in the last years of the Ted Kop pel era.

But Leno’s “Tonight Show” made hundreds of millions of dollars for NBC and stands to do the same for ABC. Moreover, Leno, 58 and still good to go for years to come, is the top-rated personality in late-night TV. If he was available, along with all that money, wouldn’t you move “Nightline” out of the way?

As for Kimmel, hopefully he understands what a Leno lead-in will mean for him – higher ratings (and more money) certainly, plus the opportunity to play in the same league as NBC and CBS, which have long had a one-two punch in late-night, while Kimmel, 40, has been out there on his own at the oddball time of 12:05 a.m. following “Nightline,” a show which is not compatible.

For Leno, moving to ABC carries almost no risk. He famously claims to not care about the money, but it’s easy to guess that ABC will pay him in the neighborhood of $30 million a year to come over and do what he’s always done. (It is estimated in most published reports that NBC pays him around $27 million.)

Best of all, he stands to preserve his traditional leadership in late-night by benefiting from the best lead-ins in television – the ABC prime-time lineup on some nights and the 11 p.m. newscasts on the ABC stations on every night since many of them are No. 1 in their cities (including the 11 p.m. news on Ch. 7 here).

What’s the best reason ABC emerges as the front-runner for Leno? Because that’s where the job is (or will be). CBS does not know when David Letterman, now 61, plans to call it quits (he’s signed up through 2010), which means the “Late Show” job simply isn’t available.

Now the stage is set for something historic – probably beginning in January 2010 with the launch of a new Leno late-night show on ABC.

ABC has the chance to emerge as America’s late-night leader, replacing NBC for the first time since television began.