The Post’s writers break down Sunday’s AFC and NFC championship games, with the two berths in Super Bowl XLVIII at MetLife Stadium at stake:
Broncos vs. Patriots (Sunday, 3 p.m., CBS)
Broncos offense vs. Patriots defense
The last time these teams met, the Broncos rolled up 412 yards and did it without a big game from Peyton Manning (19 of 36, 150 yards, two touchdowns, one interception). In November, the Broncos leaned on running back Knowshon Moreno (37 carries, 224 yards, one TD) and their offensive line controlled the line of scrimmage. Denver played conservatively last week against San Diego, with no pass longer than 21 yards. The Patriots defense intercepted Andrew Luck four times in last week’s game with the Colts. The unit was aggressive and stopped Indianapolis’ running game, but facing Manning and Moreno presents a much tougher challenge for the defense.
Edge: Broncos
Patriots offense vs. Broncos defense
The big question in this matchup is: Can LeGarrette Blount keep it going? Blount ran over the Colts last week, rushing for 166 yards and four touchdowns. It’s hard to envision him having that kind of day again, but he might allow the Patriots to play a ball-control game and keep the football away from Manning. The last time the teams played it was all Tom Brady (34 of 50, 344 yards, three TDs), but New England trailed early and was throwing for most of the game. That might not be the Pats’ game plan Sunday. Julian Edelman could be the key player for the Patriots. He had nine catches for 110 yards and two touchdowns when these teams played in November. The Broncos are missing cornerback Chris Harris, who tore his ACL last week. Belichick surely will attack this weakness in the Denver defense.
Edge: Patriots
Special teams
This is a matchup of two of the best kickers in football. Denver’s Matt Prater was named second-team All-Pro after making 25 of his 26 field-goal attempts this season. He did miss one attempt last week, though. His New England counterpart, Stephen Gostkowski, made 38 of 41 this season and showed his punting ability last week after rookie punter Ryan Allen injured his shoulder. Allen’s status remains a question mark for Sunday.
Edge: Broncos
Coaching
It’s hard for anyone to win a coaching matchup with Bill Belichick. The hooded one has done one of his best coaching jobs this season, overcoming major losses on both sides of the ball. Belichick has gotten the best of Manning through the years and surely will have something special planned for the Denver QB on Sunday. John Fox has done a good job keeping his team focused through the season, but the edge goes to the man with three Super Bowl rings.
Edge: Patriots
Player to watch: Broncos QB Peyton Manning
All eyes are on Manning. He is 4-10 all-time versus Tom Brady and if he loses this one, the talk Monday will be his legacy falls short compared with Brady’s. If he wins and then wins the Super Bowl, he improves his case as the best ever to play the position.
Prediction: Patriots 32, Broncos 20
Sorry Peyton, the Patriots are rolling and Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will have a strong game plan for you. New England will control the clock and hold off a late charge from the Broncos.
— Costello
Seahawks vs. 49ers (Sunday, 6:30 p.m., Fox)
Seahawks offense vs. 49ers defense
Time of possession needs to be circled. Seattle had the ball 36:43 in its September win, a season-high for a Niners opponent. Meanwhile, the 49ers’ TOP of 23:17 was their lowest of the year. The Seahawks kept the clock moving by rushing for 172 yards (only Indy with 182 yards had more vs. 49ers this season). Wilson didn’t have to do much, completing just 8 of 19 for 142 yards. But Seattle had the ball only 27:32 in the rematch, and rushed for just 86 yards, putting more pressure on Wilson, who was 15 of 25 for 199 in the loss. Accordingly, Seattle will look to make it a grind-out game of ball control. Hawks RB Marshawn Lynch must find a way to crack Niners Pro Bowl LBs Patrick Willis, Ahmad Brooks and NaVorro Bowman. The 49ers were the only NFL team not to allow a 100-yard rusher this season.
Edge: 49ers
49ers offense vs. Seahawks defense
Three interceptions and a lost fumble by Colin Kaepernick were among the season-high five turnovers the 49ers committed in their 29-3 Week 2 loss in Seattle. They suffered only a Kaepernick interception in winning the Week 14 rematch, 19-17 at Candlestick Park. Let’s assume neither team commits a turnover: The 49ers passing game will be the key. They have better receivers with the now healthy Michael Crabtree joining Anquan Boldin and TE Vernon Davis for a dangerous triple threat. RB Frank Gore had a 51-yard run against the Hawks in December and has gained clutch yardage in the playoffs wins at Green Bay and Carolina. Containing Kaepernick with an effective pass rush is critical for the Seahawks defense.
Edge: 49ers
Special teams
It’s easy to see this coming down to a game-winning field goal. The Niners’ Phil Dawson has been automatic. The longtime Browns kicker made four FGs, including the game-winner with 26 seconds left, to beat the Seahawks in December, and still has the leg — he hit a 56-yarder this season. Neither team has a kick return for a TD this season, but San Francisco punter Andy Lee is steady, averaging a net 41.7 yards, while Seattle Jon Ryan’s has had two punts blocked, including one in September against the Niners. Seahawks kicker Steven Hauschka is solid, making all three of his kicks from 50-plus yards during the regular season.
Edge: Seahawks
Coaching
Jim Harbaugh has reached the NFC Championship Game in all three seasons as head coach. He could easily be gunning for his third straight Super Bowl if not for a fumbled punt in overtime against the Giants in 2012. He keeps his team hungry and focused. The game-plans are versatile — capable of smash-mouth or the big play. He’s Belichick with charm. Pete Carroll’s legacy as a head coach continues to grow. He has made the Seahawks an elite team, cocky and talented just like his USC teams. San Francisco offensive coordinator Greg Roman has loosened the reins on Kaepernick, while defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s unit had five sacks and two goal-line stands against the Panthers. The Niners’ coaching staff can’t afford to burn too many timeouts early if crowd noise becomes a factor.
Edge: 49ers
Player to watch: 49ers TE Vernon Davis
Yes, Kaepernick has to avoid turnovers for the 49ers and Lynch needs a big day for the Seahawks. But expect the Seattle corners to try to lock down Crabtree and Boldin with man coverage, leaving Davis against linebackers, safeties or a nickel back. If Davis has a big day, it means Kaepernick is getting time to go through his progressions, which favors the Niners and hurts the Hawks. Davis might have six catches or two, but any could prove costly for Seahawks.
Prediction:Â 49ers 27, Seahawks 20
Kaepernick is 3-0 in road playoff games not counting the Super Bowl. The 49ers are also used to the 12th-man noise and weather shouldn’t be a factor. They look like the hot team taking the wild-card route to a championship. Barring a special day from Lynch, the 49ers have too many weapons for the Seahawks. They can run it, throw it and the Hawks’ defensive preference for man-to-man opens running lanes for Kaepernick.
— Willis