Sports

Sweet 16 picks: Dance with the ones that brought you

INDIANAPOLIS — It’s hard to shake off the last thing you saw. There have been no games since Sunday, but the memories of last week’s games linger much more than the four-plus months that preceded it. It makes sense. Teams change, players develop. What was then isn’t now. The only problem is the sample size is too small.

Don’t overreact to last week’s games. It’s a guide, not an overriding factor.

Florida (-4½) over UCLA: The Gators were the best team all season. One subpar weekend — which still resulted in two double-digit wins — isn’t any reason to go against a team that hasn’t lost since Dec. 2. The Bruins’ offense is rolling, but it hasn’t faced a defense like Florida’s. The Gators’ acclaimed senior class will reach its fourth straight Elite Eight, and then, its first Final Four.

Wisconsin (-3½) over Baylor: The Bears looked better than any team last week. Shooting nearly 64 percent from the field always looks good. That won’t happen again, and neither will Baylor’s zone defense being so fortunate to face consecutive perimeter-oriented offenses going ice cold.

San Diego State (+7) over Arizona: The Aztecs can’t get any respect, despite Steve Fisher having taken the team to the NCAA Tournament for the fifth straight season. The Wildcats looked like an unstoppable force against Gonzaga, but one that can easily be slowed. Going up against San Diego State’s second-ranked defense, Arizona will get sucked into a slow pace.

Dayton (+3) over Stanford: It’s amazing. One of these two overachievers will be one win from the Final Four. Though the Cardinal have the advantage inside, they’re averaging less than 60 points over their past three games. Another low-scoring game bodes well for Dayton’s stingy defense.

2014 record: 24-17-1

2011-13 record: 72-47-2