The NBA playoffs kick off in a little more than three weeks, and it should be one of the more fascinating postseasons in memory, chock full of historical implications and what should be some stellar basketball.
But how many teams have a legitimate shot at winning a title this season?
Here’s our rundown of the title chase with about 10 games to go in the regular season:
1. San Antonio
The Spurs are amazing. A year ago, it was widely assumed they had missed their last and best shot to get a fifth title for Gregg Popovich and Tim Duncan when they made it into the Finals and came within a crazy bounce and a heady play by the Heat’s Ray Allen in Game 6 of winning it all.
Popovich has openly talked about the pain of coming so close, and it seemed the Spurs’ window had closed – particularly after a terrible 2012-13 season, by his standards, for Big Three member Manu Ginobili. But a funny thing has happened: The Spurs are back once again, possibly better than ever.
They re-signed Ginobili, who has bounced back in a big way, feeling much healthier and stronger. They let Gary Neal go, but replaced him with Marco Belinelli, who has taken advantage of the beautiful ball movement and spacing in San Antonio’s offense to hit nearly 44 percent of his 3-point attempts.
Despite playing through lengthy injuries to Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard, the Spurs have the best record in the NBA at 55-16 after winning their past 15 games in a row. They are on course to have home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. Rumors of their demise have been greatly exaggerated.
2. Miami
How can the defending champions not be at the top of this list? Simply because they haven’t been playing like the defending champions of late. With Wednesday’s loss at Indiana, the Heat fell to 4-8 in their last 12, and they are two games behind the Pacers (more like three, because they lose out on tie-breakers) for the top seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.
The Heat still have LeBron James, of course, which will give them a chance against any team. But Miami is working against history here. There’s a reason no team has gone to four straight NBA Finals since the Celtics of the mid-1980s. The constant grind of playing consecutive 100-plus-game seasons into June, including the added stress of playoff games, is enough to wear on any team.
Then you factor in that the Heat are relying on several aging players to varying degrees, including Shane Battier, Ray Allen and Udonis Haslem, all of whom have had prolonged struggles this season. The combination of the Heat potentially having to beat the Pacers and then the West champion makes their path difficult.
3. Indiana
If the Pacers hadn’t eked out a win over the Heat on Wednesday, they would’ve dropped to the bottom of this list.
Why? Because they need homecourt advantage to have a real chance to knock off the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals, presuming they make it that far. But homecourt is no guarantee the Pacers will be successful against the Heat – or even get there – because their offense has completely come unglued in recent weeks.
After a brilliant start to the season, Indiana has reverted back to its form from much of last season, when Roy Hibbert struggled to score inside and Paul George and Lance Stephenson were inconsistent offensively, particularly shooting from the perimeter.
But the Pacers are going to be in the mix because they still have an outstanding defense and employ the same physical brand of basketball that pushed the Heat to seven games in the East finals last spring.
Those two teams likely will square off in the penultimate round of the playoffs again. This time, they’ll likely have the chance to host a Game 7 and see if they can’t produce a different result this time around.
4. Oklahoma City
The Thunder’s chances of winning their first title could come down to whether or not Russell Westbrook’s surgically repaired right knee holds up. The explosive point guard has had three separate surgeries on the knee since tearing his meniscus during last year’s playoffs.
Everyone associated with the Thunder held their breath when Westbrook banged knees with Raptors guard Kyle Lowry last Friday and had to be helped to the locker room, only to later find out it was simply a knee sprain and he wouldn’t miss any time.
While Reggie Jackson has developed into a very nice sixth man and Kevin Durant is still a spectacular player, if Westbrook isn’t right, the Thunder cannot win the title. That was proven last year when they were quickly swept aside in five games by the Grizzlies in the Western Conference semis after Westbrook went down in the first round.
Here’s hoping Westbrook is right, and we get a chance to see just how far this Thunder team can go. It would be a shame if injuries kept that from happening.
5. Clippers
The Clippers have been outstanding in their first season under Doc Rivers, improving on defense while seeing a big leap from Blake Griffin to make a legitimate run at the No. 2 spot in the Western Conference, two games back (three in the loss column) of the Thunder.
Griffin’s leap, in particular, has been eye-opening. He took on a greater role in the offense – including more ball-handling – during Chris Paul’s lengthy stint on the sidelines with a shoulder injury. That it has continued since Paul returned is both a good sign that Paul is willing to cede some control – something he’s never been the best at doing – and that Griffin is taking advantage.
Then there is DeAndre Jordan, the enigmatic center who at times can look utterly dominant, and at others can still look quite lost on defense, where he can tend to be preoccupied with padding his blocks or rebounding stats. Rivers has done his best to lift Jordan’s confidence, at times even ridiculously comparing him to Bill Russell, but Jordan still has a long ways to go.
Then there’s the Clippers’ series of issues with their wing players, most notably J.J. Redick’s season-long injury woes and Jared Dudley’s struggles. Ex-Pacer Danny Granger has given them some life after being picked off the scrap heap, but it’s hard to see them being able to rely on him in a critical role for a deep playoff run.
Still, they are clearly in the running.
6. Houston
There was going to be a sixth team on this list. The Rockets have been excellent in Dwight Howard’s first season with the team as Howard has formed arguably the league’s best 1-2 combination with dynamic shooting guard James Harden. But that was before Patrick Beverley, Houston’s best perimeter defender and a league-wide nuisance, went out indefinitely with a torn meniscus in his right knee suffered Thursday night. Now it doesn’t appear the Rockets will have the kind of defense necessary to truly contend for a championship.
Mark Jackson re-assigning Warriors assistant coach Brian Scalabrine this week – first reported by Yahoo! Sports – is only the latest sign that things aren’t exactly harmonious in the Bay Area.
There has been pressure mounting on Jackson for most of this season, after the Warriors went out last summer and splashed a lot of cash and made a lot of tricky salary cap maneuvers to sign Andre Iguodala – a move owner Joe Lacob believed could move Golden State into title contention.
Instead, the Warriors are sitting in sixth place in the Western Conference, only two games ahead of the ninth-place Mavericks with 11 games to go. Though this is mostly a by-product of how difficult the West is these days – the Warriors are on pace to win 51 games – there’s no question Lacob expects more from this team.
There’s a feeling around the league that Jackson – who hasn’t gotten an extension on his contract, which runs through next season – will determine his fate by how he does over the final few weeks of the regular season and in the playoffs. If Golden State is unable to get out of the first round, his days could be numbered.
Still, it is rather fascinating Jackson chose to make this kind of move with Scalabrine (who has been assigned to the team’s D-League affiliate in Santa Cruz) after so publicly defending Jason Kidd when a similar situation occurred with Lawrence Frank earlier this season. Kidd re-assigned Frank to doing “daily reports” during the team’s struggles in the opening months.
“I cannot speak about Jason Kidd and Lawrence Frank, because I do not know it,” Jackson said when the Nets played the Warriors in Brooklyn in January. “But everybody has to know who is in charge, and that’s the head coach. He’s the one calling the shots.
“I’ve never seen anyone of the Pips try to lead. That’s Gladys’ role. Let Gladys be Gladys.”
Apparently, in this case it was, “Let Mark be Mark.”
A quick note on the insane rush to judge college basketball players – and their future pro prospects – after losing one game in the NCAA Tournament.
When Duke lost to Mercer and Kansas lost to Stanford, people came out of the woodwork to condemn Blue Devils star Jabari Parker and Jayhawks star Andrew Wiggins after poor showings in their final collegiate games.
It’s a symptom of the times that both players have been destroyed in the many forums for instant opinion since their teams lost. But both guys are terrific talents and almost certainly will be among the top three picks in the draft – and very easily could be the top two picks, in some order – when we get to draft night in June.
This draft class has been hailed as special for a reason. That doesn’t change because two of the top prospects had poor games and went home the first weekend of the tournament.