MLB

Yankees likely will make run at Lee — in offseason

The Yankees are just one of many teams that have begun to proceed as if Cliff Lee — not Roy Oswalt — will be the prize of the July 31 trade market.

That means they have increased their scouting attention on a pitcher they already were following closely because he projects as the best pitcher of the coming free-agent class. Remember that the Yankees had a scout on almost every start CC Sabathia made in 2008 in anticipation of the lefty’s free agency after the season.

One AL executive went so far as to say last week, “I have no doubt that the Yankees will sign Cliff Lee.”

The assumption is logical. Javier Vazquez ($11.5 million) will come off the payroll, and Andy Pettitte ($11.75 million) contemplates retirement annually. Their combined salaries are roughly what it is going to take on an annual basis to secure Lee.

There is no doubt the Yankees front office is enamored of Lee. The Yankees can imagine going forward with Lee and his former Indians teammate, Sabathia, heading the rotation followed by A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes, and if he wanted to come back again, Pettitte. If not Pettitte, then the presence of horses such as Lee and Sabathia would more comfortably allow the Yankees to break in someone such as Ivan Nova as a low-cost No. 5 starter.

But having their eyes on Lee does not mean the Yankees will be at the forefront of the derby come July 31. Consider these reasons:

1. When Sabathia was available during the 2008 campaign, the Yankees did not make a push despite their desperate need for a starter. They figured they were better off saving the prospects and simply spending the money in the offseason to buy Sabathia.

The Yankees have had to expend a lot of prospects in recent years to trade for, among others, Damaso Marte/Xavier Nady, Nick Swisher, Curtis Granderson and Vazquez.

But if Vazquez were to continue to struggle and/or the Yankees incur an injury then their in-season lust for Lee could change.

2. Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik told Hardball this week, “I hope we get back in this and that we have what we expected, Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee as a dynamic duo atop the rotation.” But Seattle entered the weekend 10 games under .500.

And it is informative to remember Seattle was four over and within 31⁄2 games of the wild card last July 31, when it traded Jarrod Washburn to Detroit, though the lefty was 8-6 with a 2.64 ERA as the No. 2 starter behind Hernandez. That means Zduriencik will be pragmatic. Thus, if his team is struggling and he feels he can get more than the equivalent of two compensation picks for offering Lee arbitration after the season, he will trade him.

Outside executives, for example, see the aggressive Zduriencik as much more likely to act than Astros owner Drayton McLane will with Oswalt. That’s unless McLane actually reverses his history of not trading cherished veterans, especially — if as expected — interested teams are hesitant to give up too many prospects for a pitcher due $16 million in 2011 and 2012 (if his option is picked up) with a pre-existing back problem.

But, again, that does not automatically put the Yankees out front. Last year, the Yankees did have interest in Washburn. Nevertheless, Seattle asked for Austin Jackson and either Manuel Banuelos or Zach McAlister. The Yankees thought that was way more than Seattle ultimately extracted from Detroit (Luke French and Mauricio Robles). The Yankees often feel they get asked to pay a higher cost in trades dating to a time when George Steinbrenner was truly in charge and more apt to impetuously order a deal regardless of the cost.

3. Seattle badly needs catching, and the Yankees are rich in that area. But, again, the Yankees could be hesitant to tap into their strength for a player they may be able to buy in the offseason.

Last offseason the Yankees wanted Roy Halladay, who was at the time a Blue Jay and also was scheduled to be a free agent after the season. Toronto requested the Yankees’ top prospect, Jesus Montero, whom they envisioned as a first baseman not a catcher. The Blue Jays then said they needed one other high-end youngster from among Jackson, Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. If the Yankees were willing to put Montero and one of those players in a package, then Toronto felt it could find secondary prospects to conclude a deal.

The Yankees were willing to include Montero, but then offered more secondary prospects such as Kanekoa Texeira, whom they coincidentally lost in the Rule 5 draft to the Mariners.

Considering that the Yankees were willing to include Montero for a full season of Halladay (at the time the Yankees were not sure they would extend Halladay, as the Phillies did at the reasonable cost of three years at $60 million beyond his $15.75 million 2010 contract), would the Yankees be willing to deal Montero for a half season of Lee with the potential to either get the two draft picks or sign him long-term?

Montero has endured a tepid offensive start this season. But the Yankees have come to strongly believe that his defense has improved and he will catch in the majors. A veteran scout backed up that thinking, saying, “His body looks better, leaner, and he is moving better and quicker behind the plate. He also is throwing much better. He has shown indications he can catch.”

The Yankees have another touted catcher, Austin Romine, performing well at Double-A. With Francisco Cervelli showing he can be, at the least, a backup catcher in the majors, perhaps the Yankees think they can trade from the depth for the pitcher, Lee, who beat them twice in last year’s World Series.

But there is history to suggest the Yankees will wait to go after Lee until the offseason.

joel.sherman@nypost.com