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It’s a global chess match, as revealed by last week’s market gyrations. When will Fed head Ben Bernanke taper? But for small investors, the only concern is not getting rooked by central bankers.
The Fed chief told a congressional panel that he did not foresee an immediate reduction in the $85 billion monthly creation of digital funds used to buy Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. But hours later the release of the minutes from the May Fed meeting revealed that a growing number of his fellow governors at the central bank stated they wanted the amount of printing to be curtailed sooner — as early as next month’s meeting.
This is uncharted territory for the markets, and the reaction was swift. Japanese equities cratered 7 percent on Thursday and the broader US equity exchanges had their first 3-day loss of the year and European exchanges snap a 4-week winning streak.
Without Fed liquidity, both stock and bond market will feel the hurt.
Some market analysts say the Fed’s actions have chased ill-equipped investors into markets where they should not be.
“I think the Fed’s policy of keeping rates so low is somewhere between reckless and not having much impact,” said David Giroux, portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price.
“It has contributed to a bond bubble that has forced many investors into asset classes they shouldn’t be in to earn higher yields, such as high-yield bonds, emerging markets bonds and longer-term corporates.”
The Fed is the 800-pound gorilla in the bond pits, and it has forced many baby boomers out of the safety of the government debt markets into the platforms where the pros play.
These markets can move very quickly, and during any type of pullback they could whipsaw passive investors.
“Our concern is what happens when the Fed pulls back and takes the punch bowl away. Even though I think the benefit of the Fed policy has been modest, we don’t know how the market will react when the Fed is no longer as aggressive or when it starts raising rates in a couple of years,” Giroux said.
“Don’t play a game you can’t win,” says Josh Brown of Fusion Analytics, an investment advisory firm. “It’s a fool’s game for the small investor to think they can time this market.”
Brown advises, “If you have 40 years’ life expectancy, there’s no way you should be in bonds yielding less than inflation. It’s a losing proposition every year.”
Contrarians see the Fed governors talking of reducing the monthly infusion as lip service.
“All of the so-called ‘chatter’ about reducing bond purchases or raising rates is nonsense. The Fed is a year away from doing anything except continuing bond purchases, perhaps two years away. They are even further away from raising rates. I would not look for that until 2015 or later,” says Jim Rickards, senior managing director, Tangent Capital Partners.
“Bernanke is looking to get inflation rising, to boost nominal GDP, but the economy is on the verge of disinflation,” Rickards adds.
Pimco’s bond guru Bill Gross believes the tapering of Fed buying will be gradual.
“I think we’re looking at a potential tapering in the next few months and probably around September,” he told reporters on Wednesday.
The takeaway seems to be that bond yields will probably rise over the next few months. The 10-year note has already moved from 1.65 percent two weeks ago to close at 2.01 percent on Friday, and when yields rise, investors lose on price.