New York fans, meet the baseball season. Baseball season, meet the New York fans. We here at Hardball know you have been tied up with the Knicks and Rangers and life in general.
But it is Memorial Day weekend — the traditional time when folks begin zeroing in on and sizing up what’s what in the majors.
Sure, we know you have paid some attention. You know the Mets are good one day a week when Matt Harvey pitches, not so much otherwise. You know the Yankees have persevered despite asking a bunch of backups and backups to backups to play starting — and, at times, starring — roles.
Baseball, though, tends to be a parochial sport. You are aware of your team, but unless you are a fantasy warrior or an MLB Network devotee you might not know Didi Gregorius from Kiki Dee.
So this seemed the fitting moment to offer a catch-up primer so you can join the season already in progress with the kind of knowledge that can amaze friends and family.
So with no further ado:
5 MAIN STORYLINES
1. Strikeouts up/offense down
This is a continuing trend for which you could blame an era of power pitchers or tougher drug testing or some other combo of events. Teams are averaging 7.56 strikeouts per game, which, if it persists, would mark a record for the sixth straight year.
The collective batting average in the sport is .252. The last time a season finished that low was 1972, and the AL instituted the DH the following season. The NL may have to follow suit because run scoring per team (4.52) is at a 38-year low. But it also is because the everyday interleague schedule is made more problematic by the leagues having different DH rules (wait until big September games in the NL cities, when the AL team can’t start one of its regular players).
2. Winter blunderland
Another continuing trend: Those that steal headlines in the offseason following up with off seasons. The Dodgers, Angels and Blue Jays have transformed from most hailed to most disappointing in just a few months. Josh Hamilton, Zack Greinke, R.A. Dickey and Jose Reyes were glamour imports who, to date, have not helped their new squads do much more than increase payroll.
3. Blue-pers
High-profile umpiring miscues by Angel Hernandez and Fieldin Culbreth led to the question: What is worse, not seeing an obvious homer on replay or not knowing a reliever has to face a batter before he can be removed? They also initiated calls for tougher umpire standards and more replay, which we almost certainly will get in 2014.
4. Mig force
Miguel Cabrera produced the first Triple Crown since 1967 to great fanfare last season. That might have been an appetizer, for he might do it again this year while breaking Hack Wilson’s RBI record (190) and becoming the first player since Ted Williams in 1941 to hit .400. We are watching one of the great hitters ever at the top of his skills at a time when hitting is down in the sport. It feels Ruthian.
5. Is this the end of the closer?
Not as a job, but as a high-paid job. It would be fitting if this became a strong belief in the final season of Mariano Rivera, the only closer truly worthy of sustained financial outlay, then and now.
Last year Heath Bell received the most free-agent dollars as a closer and fell apart, while Sergio Romo, a fill-in closer, finished off the World Series. Last year Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, Jim Johnson and Fernando Rodney arguably were the best closers in the majors. This year they already have 13 blown saves — the same amount they had all of last year. The best closers not named Rivera in 2013 — probably Pittsburgh’s Jason Grilli and Seattle’s Tom Wilhemsen. Would you bet on that being true in 2014?
5 BEST ACQUISITIONS
1. Shin-Soo Choo, Reds
Cincinnati was last in the majors in leadoff OPS (.581) in 2012 and is first (.959) by more than 100 points this year because of Choo, which makes his sketchy play in center tolerable. But it should be noted he came via a three-way trade in which Arizona obtained Gregorius, a shortstop who has been a revelation.
2. Justin Upton/Chris Johnson, Braves
Upton has continued to have struggles with runners in scoring position, which is why he has just 28 RBIs with 14 homers. But he does have the 14 homers, and Johnson has been more than just a throw-in from Arizona. They have helped Atlanta move on from the Chipper Era.
3. Vernon Wells, Yankees
The team’s scouts claimed Wells had regained bat speed during the spring, but that felt like a group seeing what it wanted because the Yanks were so desperate. But Wells, along with other seemingly minor additions Travis Hafner and Lyle Overbay, has been central in keeping the Yanks afloat through the injury haze.
4. Nick Swisher, Indians
The two position players who received the most in free agency — Josh Hamilton ($125 million) and B.J. Upton ($75.25 million) — have been busts. But the third-place Swisher ($56 million) has dispelled the notion he would wilt if given the dough and asked to be a star rather than part of the Yankees’ chorus. He has hit cleanup, played first and right expertly and teamed with other imports such as Michael Bourn, Mark Reynolds, Mike Aviles and Ryan Raburn to help Cleveland create a formidable offense.
5. Mark Melancon, Pirates
Melancon was terrible in the AL East for the Yankees and Red Sox, but in the NL Central for the Astros and now the Pirates he has been terrific — one walk and two runs in 25 innings. He was part of the return from Boston for closer Joel Hanrahan, who needed Tommy John surgery and is now out for the year (again, emphasizing closers not named Rivera is a mistake). Melancon and Hanrahan’s replacement, Grilli, have given the Pirates the NL’s best endgame.
5 KEY PROSPECTS
1. Michael Wacha, Cardinals
Baltimore’s Kevin Gausman (fourth overall pick last year) beat Wacha (19th) to the majors by starting on Thursday. But Wacha, who blew scouts away in spring, may not be far behind, especially because the Cardinals lost Jaime Garcia (shoulder) for the season and are uncertain if, when or in what condition they will get back Chris Carpenter and Jake Westbrook.
2. Wil Myers, Rays
The key return from Kansas City for James Shields, Myers has not dominated Triple-A. But Tampa Bay is dreaming of the outfielder joining Evan Longoria to form a powerhouse middle of the order.
3. Zack Wheeler, Mets
Unlike Wacha or Myers, who can impact playoff races, Wheeler cannot do that in 2013. But the Mets and their fans need a reason to care this year beyond the days Harvey starts, and Wheeler could bring that.
4. Kyle Gibson, Twins
His climb to the majors was stalled by Tommy John surgery, but he is close now. The Twins hope he will be a mainstay at a time when they are desperate to find young, high-end starting pitching.
5. Gerrit Cole, Pirates
The No. 1 pick in the 2011 draft has had some control issues at Triple-A. Nevertheless, the Pirates look like they just might be in the NL Central race all year, and he potentially offers a difference-making arm in the second half.
5 TRADE POSSIBILITIES
1. Cliff Lee, Phillies
Philadelphia GM Ruben Amaro is going to have incredible strain to determine if it is best to try to make a run with an old, brittle, declining, flawed roster or begin the heavy lifting of rebuilding in a more serious fashion. He made some concessions last year by trading Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino, but refused to move Lee when the lefty was claimed on waivers by the Dodgers. Will Amaro change his mind this year?
2. Matt Garza, Cubs
He is a free-agent-to-be who returned to start Wednesday for the first time in 10 months. If Lee does not make it to the marketplace, Garza could be the best starter available.
3. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays
This is really about the Blue Jays’ mindset if this season continues to be a washout. Do they press on under the belief next year will be better or try to reconfigure/recoup some lost prospects by moving a few pieces? At a time when the sport is dying for offense, Bautista is an intriguing figure on a good contract (three years at $42 million after this season, including a 2016 option). Toronto could dangle him and Edwin Encarnacion just to see what suitors are willing to surrender.
4. Alex Rios, White Sox
Should a team hurting for offense trade its best hitter? The answer again is maybe, based on just how much interested clubs are willing to give up for top hitters on good contracts (Rios is owed $26.5 million over two years after this season, assuming his option is picked up).
5. Justin Morneau, Twins
In his walk year, Morneau has yet to deliver power. But, importantly, he finally has remained healthy and hit well.
5 KEY INJURIES
1. Michael Pineda, Yankees
With all the injuries to Yankees players of pedigree — especially position players — perhaps the most important for the team now and in the future is Pineda. With CC Sabathia possibly diminishing and Hiroki Kuroda and Andy Pettitte aging free-agents-to-be, the Yanks need to find high-end, long-term answers in the rotation. Could Pineda come back this year to help a franchise and ease minds?
2. Matt Harrison, Rangers
We picked Harrison, but it could have been a bunch of Texas pitchers, since so many are on the disabled list. Yet the team has thrived. Can the Rangers run away in the AL West if they can begin to get back Harrison, Neftali Feliz, Alexi Ogando, Colby Lewis, Joakim Soria, etc?
3. Chris Carpenter, Cardinals
Like Johan Santana, Carpenter appeared an exceptional pitcher whose season looked done in spring and maybe his career, too. He had a nerve problem in his shoulder/neck. But then word came a few weeks back that he was throwing, feeling good and wanted to try to pitch out of the pen. Now, he wants to come all the way back to the rotation. If he can, well, it would be a great story plus a great boost for the Cardinals.
4. Brandon Beachy, Braves
Washington has not run away with the NL East as expected, and one way Atlanta could hold onto its surprising lead is strengthening its pitching staff, especially after losing lefty relief specialists Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty for the season. Beachy led the majors in ERA (2.00) before needing Tommy John surgery late last June. He is nearing a return.
5. Josh Johnson, Blue Jays
Do you see the pitching trend in this category? Toronto may be too far back for even an elite-level Johnson to make much difference. But he was a key part of the Jays’ blockbuster with the Marlins, is in his walk year and did not look like his one-time ace self when healthier early in the season. Toronto needs him to return and pitch well before late July to make him either an interesting trade chip or potentially someone it might want to keep around beyond this season.