As recently as February, a poll in Crimea showed just 41 percent support for joining Russia. But a referendum in Crimea Sunday claimed 97 percent now favor the same proposition.
Vladimir Putin no doubt regards this as a testament to his charisma. With a little assist, no doubt, from the thousands of Russian troops now sitting along the border.
On Sunday, President Obama called Putin. According to a “readout” of the call on the White House Web site, “President Obama reiterated that a diplomatic resolution cannot be achieved while Russian military forces continue their incursions into Ukrainian territory and that the large-scale Russian military exercises on Ukraine’s borders only exacerbate the tension.”
The next day, Crimea’s parliament asked Moscow to admit it as “a new subject with the status of a republic.” For his part, Putin signed a decree recognizing Crimea as “sovereign and independent.” In other words, Putin is sending his own message: Russia doesn’t give a hoot what Obama or the “international community” thinks.
Even in the best circumstances, a US president’s options in Crimea would be limited. But President Obama’s tendency to speak boldly and send in John Kerry has made his circumstances worse, by underscoring that no one need fear defying him.
The president does have options, but the costs of restoring American credibility against determined aggressors such as Putin have gone up because of his fecklessness. Cutting off Russia from Western finance; restoring missile defense to Eastern European allies; making clear that a ground invasion will mean US military aid for Ukraine — these are just some of the choices Obama has before him.
The truth is President Obama’s weakness and irresolution encourages aggressors. The point of tough measures is not to go to war with Putin. The point of tough measures is to check the Russian leader’s aggression before war becomes unavoidable.