The Post’s writers break down all four big games in this weekend’s NFL divisional playoff round.
Seahawks vs. Saints (Saturday, 4:35 p.m., FOX)
Seahawks offense vs. Saints defense
Seattle’s offense was unexpectedly anemic the last month of the season, managing fewer than 300 total yards in three of its final four games, but the return of Percy Harvin could provide a big boost. Rob Ryan’s defense ranked fourth in the NFL in the regular season, but allowed a season-high 34 points when the Saints visited Seattle in early December and has forced just two turnovers in the past six games combined.
Edge: Seahawks
Saints offense vs. Seahawks defense
Drew Brees & Co. were finally dangerous in a non-Superdome setting last week against the Eagles, especially when it came to running the ball (185 yards). But having to face the Seahawks defense — especially its best-in-class secondary — in Seattle is a different challenge altogether. The Seahawks allowed just 110 points at home this season (14 per game), including a 34-7 suffocation of New Orleans last month.
Edge: Seahawks
Special teams
The Seahawks only allowed 82 yards in punt returns all season, get to add the always dangerous Harvin to their own return game and boast one of the league’s most reliable kicker-punter duos in Steven Hauschka (33-for-35 on field goals) and Jon Ryan. Saints punter Thomas Morstead is outstanding and newly signed kicker Shayne Graham booted them past the Eagles, but their coverage and return units are pedestrian.
Edge: Seahawks
Coaching
The Saints’ Sean Payton finally had a team win a road playoff game last week, and New Orleans appears to have righted the ship after a rocky four-game stretch in December. Pete Carroll is just 3-4 all time in the playoffs, but beating this year’s Seahawks in Seattle amid the din of the “12th Man” in an important game is a tall — bordering on impossible — order for any opponent.
Edge: Seahawks
Player to watch: Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch
Lynch reeled off one of the great runs in NFL history against the Saints in Seattle in the playoffs three years ago, a 67-yard rumble in the fourth quarter that cemented his “Beast Mode” reputation. Lynch ran for 1,257 yards and a career-high 12 touchdowns this season, but it has been a slog of late. He hasn’t rushed for 100 yards or more since Nov. 10 and was held to just 45 yards in 16 carries by New Orleans last month.
Prediction: Seahawks 34, Saints 13
New Orleans would have a puncher’s chance if this was at the Superdome. But with the weather forecast calling for a 100 percent chance of rain, the crowd noise at airplane-runway levels and the Seahawks’ suffocating defense rested and ready, this one doesn’t figure to be competitive for long.
—Bart Hubbuch
Patriots vs. Colts (Saturday, 8:15 p.m., CBS)
Patriots offense vs. Colts defense
The Colts defense has coughed up 125.1 rushing yards per game, seventh-worst in the NFL, and this week starting CB Greg Toler and DE Fili Moala went on injured reserve and S LaRon Landry is dealing with a concussion. But OLB Robert Mathis had a league-high 19 ½ sacks, Pats G Logan Mankins is banged up and Tom Brady was sacked 40 times on the season, so look for him to get the ball out quick to WR Julian Edelman (career-high 105 catches for 1,056 yards) and hand off to Stevan Ridley and LeGarrette Blount, who combined for 1,545 yards and 14 TDs.
Edge: Patriots
Colts offense vs. Patriots defense
QB Andrew Luck threw for 443 yards and four scores to erase a 28-point deficit in Indianapolis’ 45-44 win over Kansas City last week. The Pats have lost LB Brandon Spikes and DT Vince Wilfork from their run defense, but the Colts don’t win on the ground. The Pats intercepted Luck three times in last year’s 59-24 win, and CBs Aqib Talib and Logan Ryan — a standout rookie from Rutgers — combined for nine picks this season. Watch Talib in a great matchup with T.Y. Hilton, who has 379 yards receiving in the past two games.
Edge: Colts
Special teams
With 60 percent chance of rain, the game could get sloppier than expected. “If [the weather’s] going to worry you, you’d be worried every week in New England,’’ Pats kicker Stephen Gostkowski said. Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri is still going strong at 41 years old. But Indianapolis has had issues covering both punts (13.6 yards/return, third-worst) and kickoffs (25.2 yards, sixth-worst). The Pats are hardly explosive in that area, but one or two short fields could be all Brady needs to tilt this one.
Edge: Even
Coaching
These teams have seen so much of each other — meeting for 10 straight years before this regular season — it’s hard to imagine there are any secrets to be uncovered and tricks to be played. With respect to Colts coach Chuck Pagano, if anyone can pull something out of his sleeve, it’s Bill Belichick, He’s adept at taking away an opponent’s best threat: Will he do that with Hilton?
Edge: Patriots
Player to watch: Colts QB Andrew Luck
Luck added to his winning aura with last weekend’s comeback, making him 14-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less. He threw three picks in last year’s meeting, but both his coaches and his foes praise him as a player who doesn’t make the same mistakes twice. Luck has a great showcase against Brady, of whom he gushed: “He’s definitely set the standard for success at the quarterback position. … He’s a barometer and he is the standard.’’
Prediction: Patriots 27, Colts 21
The Colts have a habit of starting off slowly, and with New England corner-turned-safety Devin McCourty roaming around in center field, they can ill afford to have to play catchup. Expect Brady to give the Pats the lead, and close the game out with Blount and Ridley against a suspect Colts run defense.
— Brian Lewis
Panthers vs. 49ers (Sunday, 1:05 p.m., FOX)
Panthers offense vs. 49ers defense
It looks as if Panthers WR Steve Smith will play, but he has a sprained left knee and it’s hard to believe he’ll be close to 100 percent. That’s a huge deal, as he’s the only potential game-breaker in the passing attack, even after 13 years. TE Greg Olsen is Cam Newton’s favorite target. With RB Jonathan Stewart (knee) in bad shape, DeAngelo Williams and Mike Tolbert will be hard-pressed to dent a Niners rugged front group and exceptional LBs Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman, who are outstanding tacklers. This could be a day for Newton to rekindle his Auburn days and run it early and often, as he threw for only 169 yards in the November victory over the 49ers. Panthers RT Byron Bell is going to need help vs. LB Aldon Smith, who could not be blocked last week by the Packers and can wreck a game with his pass-rush skills.
Edge: 49ers
49ers offense vs. Panthers defense
This is where the Panthers do their best work, ranked No. 2 in the league in total defense, almost impossible (86.9 yards a game) to run against, not much easier to pass against (214.3 yards per game). Up front is where it’s at for Carolina (NFL-high 60 sacks), with DE Greg Hardy third in the league with 15 sacks leading the pass rush and DE Charles Johnson (11 sacks) not far behind. Add in Luke Kuechly, the best middle linebacker in the NFL (156 tackles four INTs) and it’s quite a challenge. Colin Kaepernick might not be able to rely on steady Frank Gore on the ground, so he’ll need to get rid of the ball and find Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis against an average secondary.
Edge: Panthers
Special teams
Take your pick between kickers Phil Dawson of the 49ers and Graham Gano of the Panthers — both hit 88.9 percent of their field-goal attempts this season. Gano hit the game-winning kick to beat the Niners back on Nov. 10; Dawson made three field goals kicking a frozen football last week in Green Bay. Niners punter Andy Lee has far more experience than Panthers’ Brad Nortman but they finished with near-identical net punting averages, both in the top five in the league. LaMichael James has great speed on kickoff returns for the 49ers, but Ted Ginn Jr. is a dual threat on punts and kickoffs.
Edge: 49ers
Coaching
When the Panthers were 0-2, speculation was rampant the firing of head coach Ron Rivera was imminent. Cooler heads prevailed and now Rivera is a strong candidate for Coach of the Year. His Panthers are tough and rugged, the way Rivera likes it. Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers made it to the NFC Championship in his first year and were a few seconds away from winning the Super Bowl in his second year. He is a rarity in that he’s a former quarterback yet his team is defense-oriented and likes to pound away on the ground.
Edge: 49ers
Player to watch: 49ers WR Michael Crabtree
Crabtree did not play in the regular-season meeting and his presence makes a huge difference. He’s coming off a big game (eight catches for 125 yards) in arctic Green Bay and shows signs he can be the No. 1 target the Niners need.
Prediction: 49ers 27, Panthers 16
Figure the 49ers will be thawed out after their time in the Green Bay freezer and this is the sort of backyard brawl that suits them. They have far more experience dealing with playoff pressure and seem to be peaking at the right time.
— Paul Schwartz
Broncos vs. Chargers (Sunday, 4:40 p.m., CBS)
Broncos offense vs. Chargers defense
The best offense in the NFL had a week off to recharge its battery. Now, Peyton Manning tries to make his historic regular season translate into the postseason. Manning (5,477 yards, 55 touchdowns, 10 interceptions) is sure to win his fifth MVP in a few weeks, but it will be hollow without a Super Bowl win by the Broncos. Chargers defensive coordinator John Pagano devised a terrific game plan against the Bengals last week and totally confused Andy Dalton, but this is not Andy Dalton. When these teams met last month, the Chargers held the Broncos under 300 yards for the only time this season. Linebackers Donald Butler and Melvin Ingram were everywhere for the Chargers last week.
Edge: Broncos
Chargers offense vs. Broncos defense
Philip Rivers (4,478 yards, 32 TDs, 11 INTs) had a career rebirth this season under new offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt. He was not the main reason the Chargers beat the Bengals last week, but he did what he needed to in the second half to get the victory. Running back Ryan Mathews (285 rushes, 1,255 yards, 6 TDs) has been dealing with a sore ankle and sat out a portion of the win over the Bengals. The Broncos lost linebacker Von Miller to a torn ACL, but have had strong seasons from linebacker Danny Trevathan and defensive lineman Terrance Knighton.
Edge: Chargers
Special teams
The Broncos have one of the best special teams units in football. Kicker Matt Prater (25-of-26 field goals) may be the best kicker in football and kicking at Mile High helps. Punter Britton Colquitt (44.5 yards average) is near the top of the list for the league’s best punters. Denver returner Trindon Holliday has a punt return and a kickoff return for a touchdown this year. The Chargers have been led on special teams by ex-Jet Nick Novak (34-of-37 field goals) and the always reliable punter Mike Scifres (43.2 yards average).
Edge: Broncos
Coaching
This is the third straight trip to the playoffs for Broncos coach John Fox, but he has not made it past the divisional round in Denver. He guided the Panthers to the Super Bowl a decade ago. Fox overcame a heart condition to return to the sideline at the end of the season and you can tell he senses how close this team is to winning it all. Mike McCoy was the offensive coordinator under Fox in Denver until taking over the Chargers this year. He has gotten the best out of Rivers and guided his team into the playoffs with a strong finish to the season.
Edge: Broncos
Player to watch: Broncos QB Peyton Manning
Who else could it be? This is all about Manning. He is 9-11 in the postseason as a starting quarterback and has lost his last three games. Manning put up historic numbers this season, but people question whether he can get it done in January. Last season’s loss to the Ravens will be in people’s minds until Manning puts up a win. Manning has lost his first playoff game eight times in his career. The Broncos are overwhelming favorites to get to the Super Bowl, and the pressure is on Manning.
Prediction: Broncos 42, Chargers 20
This one won’t be close. Manning has had to live with that Ravens loss for a year, and all of the old “he can’t win the big one” talk it stirred up. His historic season continues with a monster day on Sunday. The Chargers beat the Broncos a month ago, but they won’t be able to do it again.
— Brian Costello