Sports

Why 49ers? They are just better

ST. (KAEPER)NICK: Dynamic second-year quarterback Colin Kaepernick will deliver a Super Bowl victory to the 49ers’ fans and a cover to their backers on Sunday night in New Orleans. (Getty Images)

The First impression when the matchup for Super Bowl XLVII was set was to label the Ravens this year’s model of the Giants (twice), Steelers and Packers, recent teams with pedestrian regular-season records that got hot and roared through three conference playoff wins and then grabbed the ring.

But when you drill down into the numbers, you find the 49ers are just better in a lot of the key areas. Not a lot better, but with the spread at 3 1/2 points, a lot of “little betters” will add up to just enough.

Colin Kaepernick had a better touchdown-interception ratio than Joe Flacco (10-3 vs. 22-10), and a better QB rating (98.3 vs. 87.7).

Frank Gore statistically had a rushing edge over Ray Rice (1,214 yards at 4.7 per carry vs. 1,143 yards at 4.4 per carry).

At lead wide receiver, Michael Crabtree had 85 catches for 1,105 yards and nine touchdowns, compared with Anquan Boldin’s 65 catches for 921 yards and four touchdowns.

The 49ers had a better offense (361.8 yards per game vs. 352.5) and a better defense (294.4 yards per game allowed vs. 350.9).

Their top sack man, Aldon Smith, had 19.5 while the Ravens’ sack leader, Paul Kruger, had nine.

Even in a spot where the Ravens had a league-leader — Jacoby Jones led in kickoff return average at 30.7 — the Niners’ return man, LaMichael James, was less than a yard behind at 29.8.

Those are all regular season numbers, the ones that led to 11-4-1 for the Niners and 10-6 for the Ravens. A lot of things, mostly good, have happened in these playoffs, but they don’t change the baseline feeling that the 49ers have better players and the better team. Again, not by a lot, just by enough.

In the postseason, the Ravens have beaten three pure pocket passers — Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. They gave up 35 points in sub zero wind chills in Denver, but remember there were two return touchdowns in that game that didn’t go against the defense. Around that, they held Luck without a touchdown and shut out Brady in the second half. Very impressive work for a unit that is led by proud, old lions such as Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata.

But after three weeks of going against conventional offenses, can they handle the Pistol and read-option of Kaepernick? Can they handle the pounding of an enormous Niners offensive line while at the same time pick up the deception of the handoff or fake? Can their linebackers, not known for their pass-coverage skills, pick out and stay with tight end Vernon Davis? Can the cornerbacks corral emerging star Crabtree, who was the first Niner to develop a rapport with Kaepernick after the quarterback switch from Alex Smith?

Most importantly, can the Ravens catch Kaepernick, the biggest, fastest thing on two legs we have seen in the NFL maybe ever? It’s easy to say the Ravens should take away his run option and make him pass, but harder to do once the game begins and he’s gashing them with Gore runs and wide-open passes.

The Ravens say previous games against Michael Vick and Robert Griffin III have helped prepare them for the Colin Kaepernick Experience. Probably not, though, considering they lost 24-23 at Philadelphia and 31-28 at Washington in the game finished by Kirk Cousins. Anyway, Vick is not a good comparison to Kaepernick, and RG3 got hurt in that game.

The Ravens have a good, diverse offense as well. They can run it with Rice and pass it to him. Flacco has been uncanny with the deep ball and can hit home runs with Jacoby Jones and Torrey Smith and move the chains all day long with Boldin. Baltimore has the more reliable kicker, operaman Justin Tucker over David Akers, which could be a factor in a close game.

But this Super Bowl’s about Colin Kaepernick, who’s getting better and better with each passing (and running) game. With him, the Niners are the better team. Not by a lot, just by enough.

The picks: Niners -3 1/2, Over 47 1/2.

49ers, 28-23

Note: Lock of the Week finished 8-11-1 in 2012.