DOMINO EFFECT: If Phil Hughes misses the start of the season, both Ivan Nova and David Phelps (above) will make the rotation, while Adam Warren would be the next man up in the pitching staff. (Charles Wenzelberg)
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TAMPA — A reporter (not me, by the way) recently was peppering Brian Cashman with what a lineup containing Ichiro Suzuki, Brett Gardner and, perhaps, Eduardo Nunez would offer in excitement.
Every few seconds, the Yankees general manager would interrupt by saying, “We are going to score fewer runs.” But what about the hit-and-run and stolen base? “We are going to score fewer runs.” Yeah, but you will put the ball in play and bunt more. “We are going to score fewer runs.”
Cashman’s belief — backed up by 100-odd years of baseball math — is that getting on base and hitting the ball over the fence are the best way to amass the most runs, even if that can sometimes look lumbering and unappetizing to fans.
He is hoping the on-base skills of Gardner, Kevin Youkilis and Travis Hafner help in 2013, but the departure of significant power has Cashman expecting — unless you didn’t get it the first few times — these Yankees to score fewer runs.
But there also is this: The way to get better is to either score more or give up less, and Cashman still views the Yankees as title contenders because he anticipates a 1-to-12 pitching staff strength.
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Which is why the bulging disk Phil Hughes developed in his upper back is worrisome. Hughes may never have become the front-end starter of the Yankees’ dreams. But he ranks among the better fourth starters in the game.
However, if he were to be downgraded by yet another injury, then what right now appears thin rotation depth becomes arguably a bigger trouble spot for the Yankees than the loss of those 100 or so homers from last year’s roster.
Instead of battling for the No. 5 spot, both Ivan Nova and David Phelps would make the rotation. Adam Warren then rises to next man up and, yes, that is the Adam Warren who had one of the worst starting debuts (six runs, 2 1/3 innings) in Yankees history last year.
This is why the Yankees are fishing around for a veteran to put at Triple-A (they plan to watch Chien-Ming Wang in the World Baseball Classic), though Cashman reiterated yesterday he has no interest in free agent Kyle Lohse. It is also why they are all but praying Michael Pineda could return from shoulder surgery in June.
Obviously, though, this is why the Yankees need their front four — CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettitte and Hughes — to stay healthy. If that quartet gets close to 120 combined starts, the Yankees should be fine.
At this moment, the Yankees are saying Hughes should only be shut down for 10-14 days and — without setbacks — should be in the season-opening rotation. But Hughes has never been a good health risk.
Sabathia, 32, had offseason elbow surgery. Pettitte, 40, and Kuroda, 38, are projected to be the oldest and fourth-oldest starters in the majors. But the greatest pitching predictor of being a workhorse is if you have been a workhorse, which each of that trio has.
Hughes, 26, has yet to put together two full, healthy seasons as a major league starter. And his most recent injury was incurred, of all things, covering first base in a drill. It makes you wonder if like, say, Nick Johnson, it is always going to be one physical breakdown after another that keeps Hughes from being all that he can be.
“I don’t think so,” Hughes said. “I have dealt with a lot of freak things. It has been nothing more than bad luck. I really worked hard this offseason and felt strong. My arm has felt great. If [the injuries] had been to the same spot over and over, then maybe there would be something to it.”
This is such a vital year for Hughes. Because the Yankees need him so badly and because this is his walk year. Even if he just does what he did in 2010 and ’12 — 30-ish starts, 16-18 wins, 4.20-ish ERA — he would solidify the back end of the Yankees’ rotation. Plus, he would hit free agency at 27 and probably shoot for something between Edwin Jackson’s four years at $52 million and Anibal Sanchez’s six years at $90 million.
Hughes insists when he felt that grab in his upper back the other day he never thought about the free agency. And, now, as the pain has subsided with initial treatments, he offers confidence at being ready April 1.
That feels mandatory. The Yankees’ playoff margin for error is smaller than any time in the last 15 years, and that margin is particularly thin in rotation depth. They can’t afford any significant setbacks there because if you haven’t heard, this is the anticipation of the Yankees’ own GM:
“We are going to score fewer runs.”