BEST PICTURE
* Amour
* Argo
* Beasts of the Southern Wild
* Django Unchained
* Les Misérables
* Life of Pi
* Lincoln
* Silver Linings Playbook
* Zero Dark Thirty
What should win: “Zero Dark Thirty’’ is a film for the ages,
but the film’s handlers were slow and ineffective in responding to accusations that it endorses torture (which it doesn’t). The win just three years ago for director Kathryn Bigelow’s far less impressive “The Hurt Locker’’ is another debit in the academy’s eyes.
What will win: “Argo’’ swept the guild awards and sapped hopes for “Lincoln” after Ben Affleck was snubbed by Oscar’s director’s branch, and will become the first film since “Driving Miss Daisy,’’ in 1989, to win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination. Doesn’t hurt that, like “The Artist’’ last year, it’s the least polarizing film in the field.
BEST ACTOR
* Bradley Cooper, “Silver Linings Playbook’’
* Daniel Day-Lewis, “Lincoln’’
* Hugh Jackman, “Les Misérables’’
* Joaquin Phoenix, “The Master’’
* Denzel Washington, “Flight’’
Who should win: Day-Lewis’ performance towers over the more self-important aspects of “Lincoln,’’ as well as the other nominees.
Who will win: Admiration of Day-Lewis’ work is so universal that I think academy voters are comfortable anointing him as the first-ever winner of three Best Actor Oscars.
BEST ACTRESS
* Jessica Chastain, “Zero Dark Thirty”
* Jennifer Lawrence, “Silver Linings Playbook’’
* Emmanuelle Riva, “Amour’’
* Quvenzhané Wallis, “Beasts of the Southern Wild’’
* Naomi Watts, “The Impossible’’
Who should win: Lawrence, without whose performance “Silver Linings Playbook’’ wouldn’t be a contender at all. Chastain is also very good playing a far more restrained character.
Who will win: Lawrence took the Screen Actors Guild Award and has long looked like the favorite, but I see an upset looming — with the academy’s geezers giving it to the iconic French actress Riva, who will turn 86 on Oscar night, making her the oldest acting winner ever.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
* “Alan Arkin, “Argo’’
* Robert De Niro, “Silver Linings Playbook’’
* Philip Seymour Hoffman, “The Master’’
* Tommy Lee Jones, “Lincoln’’Christoph Waltz, “Django Unchained’’
Who should win: SAG winner Jones, who holds his own opposite Day-Lewis as a cranky but conscience-stricken abolitionist.
Who will win: Arkin will benefit from the “Argo’’ groundswell, while Jones will get snubbed due to the “Lincoln’’ backlash.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
* Amy Adams, “The Master’’
* Sally Field, “Lincoln’’
* Anne Hathaway, “Les Misérables’’
* Helen Hunt, “The Sessions’’
* Jacki Weaver, “Silver Linings Playbook’’
Who should win: Hathaway, who pulls off a Jennifer Hudson — a riveting number in an otherwise forgettable musical.
Who will win: The safest bet of the evening is Hathaway, who has swept precursor awards despite her seeming inability to deliver a single decent acceptance speech.
BEST DIRECTOR
* Michael Haneke, “Amour’’
* Benh Zeitlin, “Beasts of the Southern Wild’’
* Ang Lee, “Life of Pi’’
* Steven Spielberg, “Lincoln’’
* David O. Russell, “Silver Linings Playbook’’
Who should win: With Bigelow and Affleck out of the race, I’d give it to Zeitlin for his micro-budgeted triumph. But the academy almost certainly considers his nomination to be his award.
Who will win: Previous winner Lee is the default choice, largely because I don’t think Oscar is ready to make Spielberg the first three-time Best Director winner since 1959 for “Lincoln,’’ a film that seems to inspire more respect than enthusiasm from awards voters.