Joel Sherman

Joel Sherman

MLB

Yankees need Pineda, Banuelos for strong rotation

When it comes to projecting positives from the Yankees farm system, we have learned to be cautious.

It was not long ago that future rotations were going to be built around Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy and then the Killer Bs of Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances and Andrew Brackman.

Remember when the Yankees were promoting themselves as catching central, yet Jesus Montero was traded and flopped in Seattle; Francisco Cervelli couldn’t stay healthy and now has a PED suspension on his ledger; and Austin Romine was so good the Yankees were starting Chris Stewart last year and paying for Brian McCann this offseason.

Thus, believe in Gary Sanchez and J.R. Murphy with some caution.

It was as recent as this time last year the Yankees thought they were moving a complete outfield in unison through their system in Tyler Austin, Slade Heathcott and Mason Williams and were not discouraging the notion Austin and Heathcott could be second-half major league assets in 2013.

Today it would be hard to make the case that any will help in 2014.

So take this for what it is worth, but there is still a Hail Mary route in which the Yankees’ rotation transitions in the near future from huge concern to strength. It involves — in no particular order of difficulty — signing Masahiro Tanaka, having Banuelos and Michael Pineda return to health and high-level form and seeing Ivan Nova be the pitcher he was upon returning full-time to the rotation last July (7-4, 2.59 ERA in his final 15 starts).

Is this likely to all happen? Well, I didn’t call it a Hail Mary for nothing. We are talking about obtaining a pitcher (Tanaka) in what is expected to be a substantial bidding war among many clubs. Believing two starters coming back from major arm surgeries can regain their best when one (Banuelos) never has pitched in the majors and the other (Pineda) hasn’t pitched in the majors the past two years. Also thinking Nova has tamed the roller-coaster dimensions of his up-and-down tendencies.

Masahiro TanakaAP Photo/Kyodo News

But here is the thing: There is not even a Hail Mary chance without talent, and there is talent in this foursome. Plus, Nova is the oldest, turning just 27 in January. So if this were to ever hit just right, then the Yankees potentially could let Hiroki Kuroda, 39, go after 2014; more easily transition CC Sabathia, 34 in July, down in the rotation; and perhaps even gain some cost certainty moving forward that would allow another attempt at getting under the luxury tax threshold in 2015 (when it is again $189 million) if they have to blow by it in 2014 in order to land Tanaka.

That is why — whether the Yankees sign Tanaka or not — there will be so much intrigue come spring training surrounding Banuelos and Pineda.

“I have no idea [how good they will be],” General Manager Brian Cashman said.

“It doesn’t matter what anyone thinks or says. It is about showing something now. Pineda is coming back from a very serious (shoulder) injury. Banuelos is coming back from Tommy John surgery that is not considered as serious, but he hasn’t even finished his development program.”

Cashman said both finished last season healthy, and both are expected to be fully ready when pitchers and catchers report. Banuelos began the 2012 season as a consensus top-30 prospect and ended it needing elbow surgery.

Owing to his left-handedness, similar slight build and high-end changeup, Banuelos, 23 in March, once drew comparisons to Johan Santana. But questions remain about his control and durability. Brackman is gone, Betances has been put in the bullpen and so Banuelos is the last chance for the Killer Bs.

Pineda’s arc is his surprise rise to an All-Star in 2011, then suffering second-half struggles that year, getting traded to the Yankees in the offseason, being out of shape for his first Yankees spring, developing shoulder problems, needing surgery in May 2012 and trying to recover his health and stuff since.

The Yankees sure could have used a good starter late last season when they were running out Hughes and David Huff, and whether out of caution or lack of trust in the stuff, they never summoned Pineda.

Now Pineda will be part of a group in spring with David Phelps, Adam Warren, Vidal Nuno and Huff vying for a back-end rotation job, while Banuelos will join Jose Ramirez, Shane Greene and perhaps Nik Turley trying to position themselves to be part of the Yankees’ near future.

“Both [Banuelos and Pineda] had a great deal of ability before the injuries,” Cashman said. “The projections were things you could dream on. Now, you have to careful about dreaming. Better to under-promise and under-sell and then over-perform. We had a lot of excitement about those guys. Now, they are going to have to translate that into performance. There are more steps now.”