As we emerge from our holiday hibernation and discover Ike Davis is still a Mets employee, let’s frame the question this way:
What scenario would prompt another club to switch gears and pay a high price for the high-ceiling, high-struggling first baseman? What would the Mets need to happen to reach their current asking price?
A spring-training injury? A slow start by a fledgling first baseman elsewhere? A fast Grapefruit League start by Davis?
An unforeseen swarm of locusts in Arizona?
We come today not to rip, as more than six weeks remain before the Mets welcome their position players to Port St. Lucie. Consider this instead a piece of friendly advice for the most improved baseball team in New York: If they prolong the “Where’s Ike Going?” saga into spring training, the Mets are crazy. The rewards don’t validate the risks.
Sandy Alderson said of his first-base surplus, on Dec. 17, “If we don’t get what we want in return, we’ll have to think of other options, which would be to wait or to even go into spring training with more than one [first baseman].”
Here’s what Brewers general manager Doug Melvin, whose club could use a first baseman, told MLB.com on Monday: “First base, I’ve had ongoing discussions with [Mets general manager] Sandy Alderson, but we haven’t gotten to anything where we’re comfortable with the deal from our side, and he’s not been comfortable with the deal from his side.”
The Mets want pitcher Tyler Thornburg, regarded by the Brewers as a possible back-end-rotation starter, from Milwaukee. Another pitcher with that sort of potential, Baltimore’s Eduardo Rodriguez, caught the Mets’ attention in trade discussions. The Pirates still have a void at first base, and they, too, haven’t been able to match up with Alderson and his crew on Davis.
Trading established commodities has been Alderson’s greatest attribute since he took over the Mets three-plus years ago; his deals of Carlos Beltran (to San Francisco, in 2011) and R.A. Dickey (to Toronto, in 2012) have stocked the roster with high-ceiling players. Maybe Alderson’s patience on Davis will pay off similarly, if not as spectacularly.
Or maybe the Ike Sweepstakes should be viewed as one talent evaluator from a National League club put it Monday, on the condition of anonymity:
“It’s like running a Mercedes dealership and saying, ‘We’re going to charge you $55,000 for this car, but it’s used and banged up, and you have to figure out how to fix it. Not us, you.’”
To say Davis is a talented player coming off a terrible season represents oversimplification. His mechanics scare the devil out of scouts just as much as his raw power worries opposing managers and pitching coaches. And he plays the position that is most easily replaced in a National League lineup.
Yup, he easily could haunt the Mets by going elsewhere and launching 30-plus homers again, especially in a hitter-friendly ballpark like the Brewers’ Miller Park. Yet his best overall offensive campaign came in 2010, his rookie year, so a) that’s four years ago already, and b) he tallied a relatively modest 2.0 oWAR (offensive wins above replacement) that season, as per Baseball-Reference.com, and Lucas Duda hit the same peak in 2011. Odds don’t favor a rise to superstar level.
To bring Davis and Duda into camp together, a concept the Mets have discussed internally, is to tilt the media focus away from exciting newcomers (Bartolo Colon and Curtis Granderson) and rising hopes (Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard) and toward the daily first-base derby. It would place excess scrutiny on spring-training plate appearances by two guys who have struggled with their confidence previously.
And what happens if Davis actually does hit well in Grapefruit League action? Do the Mets get tempted to place their emotional chips on their former first-round draft pick once again?
No, it’s time for all parties to move on. Davis, who has handled his rises and falls with dignity, deserves a fresh start.
The Mets owe themselves a clean break. To get that, they’ll likely have to blink on their asking price.