Opinion

Slapping down Iran’s hope for peace

Since his election as the next president of the Islamic Republic in Iran, Hassan Rouhani has inspired some optimism in certain Washington circles. Former national Security Advisers Brent Scowcroft and Zbigniew Bzrezinski have made the media rounds to spread the good news that Rouhani will deliver what America has wanted for three decades. The more sober Dennis Ross, a former presidential adviser on Iran, has sounded uncharacteristically optimistic.

Yet, even before being sworn in, Rouhani has had his leash tightened by “Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei.

It started last week, when pro-Rouhani sources published lists of his “dream Cabinet” that included personalities close to former President Muhammad Khatami.

Khamenei reacted through Kayhan, the daily controlled by his office. “We will not allow members of the George Soros club to become ministers,” the paper said. Soros’ name has become a code word for what Khamenei believes is a plot to overthrow the regime with a “velvet revolution.” As president, Khatami met the businessman during the World Economic Forum in Switzerland.

The next sign of tension came when the two men offered contrasting views of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s record. Khamenei received Ahmadinejad and his Cabinet for a “farewell” party at which the outgoing president was praised for his “courage, dedication and success.” If Khamenei is to be believed, despite its shortcomings, Ahmadinejad’s presidency was something of a “golden age.”

Two days later, Rouhani claimed in a speech that Ahmadinejad had led Iran into “catastrophe,” including “the highest rate of inflation in the world” and record unemployment, with 4 million or 5 million university graduates shut out of the job market. He also made another astonishing claim: that, under Ahmadinejad, Iran had created only 14,000 jobs a year while a million people annually entered the job market.

The third indirect clash came over former British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw’s media campaign to portray the new Iranian president as “a statesman and wise leader.”

Straw and Rouhani have been friends for years. When in office, Straw visited Tehran six times to meet Rouhani, then national security adviser. In his autobiography, Straw claims that, with the then German and French foreign ministers, Joschka Fischer and Dominique de Villepin, he’d reached an agreement with Rouhani to continue negotiations as a means of preventing US military action against Iran. “I told Rouhani that we three were Iran’s human shield,” Straw asserts.

Thus, it was no surprise when Rouhani spokesman Morteza Bank suggested that the “human shield” trio could attend the inauguration. Then, hours later, Khamenei’s entourage burst that balloon.

“Straw is a vagabond in search of attention,” said Khamenei adviser Mujtaba Zolnour. “If that sneaky Englishman shows up, we shall break his legs.” Rouhani’s office had to deny that Straw & Co. were invited.

The next clash came when Rouhani’s office announced that all UN members were invited to the inauguration. After a phone call from Khamenei’s office, Rouhani’s spokesman issued a correction: That didn’t include Israel.

But Khamenei was still angry; the Rouhani camp had to issue a statement that the United States wasn’t invited, either.

There’s more: Rouhani tried to fly three kites to indicate he seeks changes in foreign policy. Khamenei shot down all three.

First, Rouhani’s office had announced that his first foreign visit would be to Saudi Arabia to ease tension with pro-US Arab states; Khamenei vetoed that. Now Rouhani’s first foreign visit will be to Tajikistan, then Russia.

Khamenei’s resolve to forge an Iran-Russia-China axis to exclude America from the Middle East is highlighted by the announcement that the first foreign leader to visit Rouhani will be Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The “Supreme Guide” believes the United States is in terminal decline and that Iran need not be accommodating. If Rouhani is of use, it’s to hoodwink Washington with formal negotiations to prevent military action during the final phase of US decline.

Second: Earlier this month, Rouhani spoke of “fresh opportunities” regarding ties with Washington. Khamenei reacted in a speech, ruling out any thaw in relations. “Americans are dishonest, illogical and untrustworthy,” he said. He also referred to the United States as “the enemy of humanity.”

For his third kite, Rouhani refused to take a phone call from Syrian despot Bashar al-Assad. Instead, he sent a cable responding to Assad’s congratulating Rouhani’s victory. Rouhani’s cable expressed hope that “Syrian sufferings” will end but offered no support for Assad.

Khamenei contrasted this by publicly insisting that “Syria’s security is Iran’s security” and that he won’t allow Assad’s fall.

It’s too early to know whether Rouhani will clash with the “Supreme Guide,” repeating the pattern set by the Islamic Republic’s six presidents so far. Yet both men have signaled that the power struggle will continue.