THERE is a Cooperstown South tinge to Yankee camp. Special instructors Yogi Berra and Reggie Jackson already are enshrined in the Hall of Fame, and Goose Gossage will be part of the Class of 2008.
Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Alex Rodriguez are among the surest active players to one day have a plaque in upstate New York. It is not inconceivable that one day, that trio will represent the all-time hit leader, the all-time saves leader and the all-time home run leader.
But does the Cooperstown collection end there for this group of Yankees? Maybe, but not definitely. There are four thirtysomething current Yankees – Bobby Abreu, Johnny Damon, Mike Mussina and Jorge Posada – who have built candidacies that will warrant inspection and possibly even more than that if they still have high-caliber play left in their bodies.
A brief aside here: I am a Hall voter and my belief is that we keep watering down entrance requirements. I think the Hall was designed to honor not the exceptionally good, but the elite among the elite. Greg Maddux and Pedro Martinez, for example, could be part of any conversation of the greatest pitchers of all-time, right there with Tom Seaver and Lefty Grove and Walter Johnson.
There is a tendency to think that when you do not vote for a candidate, you are debasing his career. That could not be further from the truth. What child who picks up a glove would not want to have the careers of Steve Garvey or Dave Parker or Jim Kaat? I admire each of them, and vote for none. Because ultimately the vote is about where you put your personal borderline to distinguish between candidates.
At present, Abreu, Damon, Mussina and Posada do not cross the borderline. My first litmus test always begins with an emotional barometer: Did I feel like I was watching an historic player, an all-time great who deserves to be immortalized – remembered as among the elite of the elite. None of these players fits that category.
I then turn to statistics to make sure my eyes and gut feelings did not overemphasize someone I liked or undervalue/overlook someone I did not quite think made it over my personal borderline. The more advanced metrics have done wonders to provide numerical profiles of players. And if Abreu, Damon, Mussina or Posada were to make a Cooperstown run, I think it will be mostly from winning a statistical debate.
Here is where I think each candidate stands right now. The Lookalike represents a Hall of Famer whom the Baseball Prospectus 2008 has as one of four main statistical comparables to the player:
BOBBY ABREU
What he said: “I’m still only 34 and obviously everyone wants to be there. I am going to have to put up some more numbers.”
Lookalike: Carl Yastrzemski.
Helps him: One of 23 players all-time in the .300 batting average/.400 on-base percentage/.500 slugging percentage club (minimum 4,000 plate appearances). Every player who has finished his career at those levels and been eligible for the Hall has been enshrined.
Hurts him: Has led the league once in doubles and triples, but nothing else, and made just two All-Star Games and won one Gold Glove. Never finished higher than 14th in MVP voting.
The skinny: What do you think of the .300/.400/.500 thing when you learn Lance Berkman and Todd Helton also qualify? Abreu (221 homers) and (296) steals really would help his candidacy if he became a 400/400 guy. Also, he is right at .300 (BA) and .500 (SLG), so he is more likely to drop below those thresholds late in his career. He has a real shot of finishing in the top 50 all-time in doubles, walks and on-base percentage. He really will be helped as more statistically sophisticated voters replace old-timers, because those who favor advanced metrics consider his prime (1998-2006) to be severely undervalued by the mainstream.
What I think: He is Brian Giles. Good on-base skills, power for a defined period and a good defender in his prime.
JOHNNY DAMON
What he said: “When you get to the tail end of your career, you look at the numbers and what is it going to take.”
Lookalike: Enos Slaughter.
Helps him: One of just 11 players to score at least 100 runs in nine straight years.
Hurts him: Just two All-Star Games and never finished higher than 13th in MVP voting.
The skinny: It is simple for Damon. He might not make it even with 3,000 hits, but he has no shot without reaching that plateau, and maybe 500 steals, too. He is at 2,102 and 333 at age 34 with his body looking as if it is breaking down. Does he seem the type who can average 178 hits and 34 steals over the next five years?
What I think: He is Kenny Lofton. A very good player on very successful teams who never had the kind of stretch of greatness to elevate his candidacy like Tim Raines did.
MIKE MUSSINA
What he said: “If I scratch out 4-5 years to get to 300 [wins], does that get me in when that would be my very worst pitching? If I am a Hall of Famer, I am already. I already have done my best pitching.”
Lookalike: Jim Bunning.
Helps him: Eight top-five finishes for the Cy Young. Six Gold Gloves. Every pitcher since 1900 who has finished at least 100 games over .500 and has been eligible is in the Hall. Mussina is 106 games over .500 (250-144).
Hurts him: He is Mr. Almost. He has never won 20 in a season, and is the only man to ever reach 250 without a 20-win season. He has been one, two and four outs from perfect games. He nearly has been a Cy Young winner and a World Series champ.
The skinny: Bert Blyleven has had his vote percentage rise annually since 1999 from 14.1 to 61.9 (75 percent is needed for induction) helped by an onslaught from many statistical analysts who have championed Blyleven’s cumulative numbers and work against the league average rather than his lack of symbolic greatness such as 20-win seasons and Cy Youngs. Mussina will have quite the similar case.
What I think: He doesn’t have the postseason heft of a Curt Schilling or John Smoltz or the regular-season high-water of a Pedro Martinez or Greg Maddux. Mr. Almost.
JORGE POSADA
What he said: “I don’t even want to think about it. I can’t play when I am thinking about that.”
Lookalike: Carlton Fisk.
Helps him: Five All-Star Games and Silver Slugger awards. Fourth-best OPS ever for a catcher (.860) behind Mike Piazza, Mickey Cochrane and Bill Dickey (minimum 3,000 plate appearances).
Hurts him: Started as a regular late (age 26), so his cumulative numbers such a 1,334 hits and 218 homers are not overly impressive.
The skinny: Does the lack of wear and tear on the front end of his career enable him to stretch excellence into his late 30s? He did have his best year last year at 35. Three more high-level seasons might be the magic number.
What I think: Without the overwhelming defensive component at his position, he needs more offense. Right now, he is somewhere between Ted Simmons and Fisk.