MLB

‘PEN DOOR OPEN

JOBA Chamberlain is going to be a starter this season. Yankees officials still are privately saying that this is the plan, to make the transition during the 2008 season, not some distant date.

Of course, that strategy can be disrupted by the absence of injury or poor performance by the currently projected starting five. However, that is as likely as Jessica Simpson becoming Secretary of State. You are going to get a performance plummet by a Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy, or a physical breakdown by a Mike Mussina or Andy Pettitte – as Pettitte’s back spasms showed yesterday.

But the Yanks, to date, had avoided those issues in spring, which has enabled them to stay true to the policy they forged in the offseason: Use Chamberlain for a few months out of the pen (about 30-40 innings). In that time, hope a young reliever working the sixth and seventh innings emerges to replace Chamberlain as the main bridge to Mariano Rivera. (Right now, Ross Ohlendorf is catching attention by pounding the strike zone with a 94-mph sinker and burgeoning splitter against lefties, and the touted Humberto Sanchez is due to throw off the mound this week for the first time since Tommy John surgery). Then transition Chamberlain to the rotation, maxing his innings at about 140.

Why have the Yanks so fixated on Chamberlain as a long-term starter: Because of the Joba Tools.

“The bottom line is the guys that wind up in the ‘pen wind up there because they do not have enough [different] pitches to start or are mediocre starters whose stuff plays better in the ‘pen,” Yankees GM Brian Cashman said. “Mariano Rivera was moved to the pen because of a limited assortment of pitches. He is a remarkable reliever. In Joba’s case, he has four pitches that in our opinion will make him a very good starter. We felt he was a starter or set-up/closer type when we drafted him. I would rather have the starter.”

A half-dozen executives unanimously said if they had a pitcher they believed could do either, they would take the top-of-the-rotation starter over the late-inning stalwart.

As Pirates GM Neal Huntington said, for example, “K-Rod [Francisco Rodriguez] failed as a minor league starter. Joe Nathan failed as a starter. They both turned into tremendous closers. But you don’t have many surprise 200-inning starters who give you a quality 200 innings. It is a much more demanding role.”

If you chose to see the best-case scenario, you could frame this as: Would you rather have Justin Verlander or the 1996 version of Rivera? The Yanks believe Chamberlain will be comparable to Verlander as a starter. But it could be argued Rivera was the AL MVP in 1996. Once Rivera was installed in late April into his main set-up role, the Yankees went 45-9 in the games he pitched. The Yanks were 17-2 when Chamberlain pitched last season.

Cashman said he would never permit Chamberlain to throw 100 innings as a reliever. But keep in mind that in 1996 Rivera pitched 1072/3 innings in 61 appearances. There has been much theorizing that arm problems arise not because of the 100 innings but because of the frequency of use; for example, throwing 100 innings in 80 appearances rather than 60.

So what would be more valuable: To use Chamberlain near exclusively in late innings of close contests so that just about every one of his 100 innings would be incredibly precious or to use him as a starter when a percentage of the innings will be in blowouts? Keep in mind that Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte finished second and third in the majors in run support (Verlander, coincidentally, was first). It doesn’t mean anyone could win 15-plus games. But when you average seven runs of support per game, it does mean a lot of the innings come with the Yankees well ahead.

“I hear the argument, but I just think it is harder to find a top-notch [No.] 1 or 2 or even a No. 3 these days,” Cashman said. “It is easier to find someone to pitch the seventh, eighth and ninth inning, than someone to do the other thing.”

For now, the Yanks will try to get a little of both with Chamberlain; penmanship for a few months followed – they hope – by a touch of Verlander.