‘Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on the strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter.”
So wrote Winston Churchill in 1930; he could just as easily have been taking note of America’s mission in Iraq.
Yesterday marked five years since the start of the invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s brutal Ba’athist regime.
Certainly the invasion’s planners underestimated the ethnic and sectarian tinderbox they were igniting by removing Saddam from power – not to mention the toll in American blood and treasure the effort would extract.
On the other hand: Who would have thought, not two years ago, that al Qaeda’s decision to engage American forces in Iraq would leave the group on the verge of a strategic catastrophe?
Clearly, Churchill’s “hurricanes” blow in both directions.
Indeed, it’s hard to survey the still-unsettled Iraqi landscape without seeing the gains that American grit has won.
Sectarian violence is down 90 percent since January 2007 – a figure that’s held basically steady since October. The once-fearsome al Qaeda in Iraq, meanwhile, is under siege in the northern city of Mosul, its sole remaining base of power.
To be sure, top-down political “reconciliation” has come slowly: Iraqi society remains factionalized, and new elections still are needed to bring America’s “Sunni Awakening” allies fully into the political process.
Nonetheless, the stabilizing security situation reveals a grassroots rejection of al Qaeda-inspired fanaticism and strife.
And that brings with it a spreading recognition that when it comes to a decent future for Iraq, the United States – and the functioning federal system it’s pushing – is the only game in town.
Still, America must beware of surprises:
* While on the ropes, al Qaeda in Iraq is by no means defeated – especially near Mosul.
* Any number of hostile influences, Iran included, could find a way to adjust their tactics to Gen. David Petraeus’ “troop surge” strategy and engineer reverses of their own.
But it’s not unreasonable to expect a stable, relatively well-governed Iraq to emerge in the end, reaping dividends for US interests in the region and checking Iran’s aspirations to regional dominance.
The path to defeat, however, is remarkably straightforward – and that’s to panic Iraqis with hints (or worse) of premature American withdrawal.
It’s more than a little bit alarming, then, that both Democratic candidates for president are tripping over themselves to promise rapid troop drawdowns.
Sen. Hillary Clinton even insisted this week that “we cannot win” in Iraq.
So let’s be clear: Not only are such remarks stunningly reckless, they’re as divorced from the reality of Iraq as the most starry-eyed predictions of easy triumph were in 2003.
Five years on, the blunders of America’s enemies in Iraq – along with the steadfast determination of the US Armed Forces – have put victory within reach.
What a pity to throw it away.