PITTSBURGH – Cue the small-market soundtrack to the days of whine and lockouts. The cap is increasing again next season, and, according to NHLPA projections presented on Wednesday at a meeting of certified agents chaired by union executive director Paul Kelly, it will do so rather dramatically.
Slap Shots has learned that the Players Association – with input on the number from the NHL – projects revenues to reach $2.575B this season, an 11.1-percent increase over the 2006-07 Hockey Related Revenue (HRR) of $2.318B. The cap should increase at a slightly higher rate because the players’ share of the gross increases from 55.5 percent to 56.333 percent at the $2.5B revenue threshold. It assumes the players will once again exercise their option to approve a five-percent inflation bump.
Thus the PA estimates that the cap will be approximately $56.3M – give or take in concert with the final HRR number that will be determined by playoff revenues – next season, an increase of $6M from this year. It means clubs will be able to maintain summer rosters of up to nearly $62M in payroll before personnel decisions come due at the end of the training camp.
It also means the floor next season will be $40M, or slightly above that. It seems like expensive flooring, but not so much, actually. For of all 30 NHL teams, only Columbus (barely), Nashville and Phoenix will have invested less in payroll this season.
If HRR continues to increase annually by approximately 11 percent, the players’ share will increase to its upper-limit of 57 percent at $2.7M, then the team cap will hit approximately $62M in 2009-10, and $68M in 2010-11. In other words, should they wish to do so, the Penguins will have no cap issue to prevent them from keeping both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, just as the Blackhawks will have ample space to retain both Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews.
According to multiple sources, the PA contends the growth of NHL revenues since the end of the lockout is 100-percent attributable to a combination of the increased strength of the Canadian dollar and steadily escalating ticket prices. Sixth Avenue could argue fans’ willingness to pay higher prices speaks to the strength and popularity of the NHL, and they would not be all wrong.
The CBA is set to expire following the 2010-11 season, though the PA has the option of either terminating the agreement after next season (Sept. 15, 2009), or extending it a year through 2011-12. There is essentially no chance of the union opting out early, not even Scott Boras would recommend that. It is more likely the union will extend the agreement, though that issue has not been addressed at any length.
The PA estimates the players’ total payroll has increased by approximately $12M from the final uncapped season of 2003-04. The union believes the players will receive 98-percent of the face value of their 2007-08 contracts after final escrow accounting.
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No; the Rangers may not independently negotiate a transfer fee with Omsk Avangard in order to secure the release of 2007 first-rounder Alexei Cherepanov. They may agree to coincidentally schedule a couple of exhibition games this summer in Omsk – will Jaromir Jagr play for both sides? – before the Blueshirts’ preseason matches in Switzerland and regular-season-opening series in Prague, while Omsk generously allows Cherepanov to attend training camp and try out for the Rangers, but money may not pass hands.
The league contends paying transfer fees to international clubs somehow equates to benefits flowing to the player and is thus banned by the CBA. It has sent memos to all of its teams reinforcing that position. But theirs is a rather liberal interpretation, one that an arbitrator might not uphold.
The league does also happen to have an agreement with the PA authorized in 2005 by Ted Saskin that forbids team-negotiated transfer fees, but that agreement happens to expire on June 30, and, the PA does not seem inclined at the moment to re-up so quickly.
The NHL/IIHF transfer agreements expire in June. Currently, 18- and 19-year-olds who do not make their NHL clubs must be offered back to their European clubs. The NHL and PA are believed to have talked about expanding the provision to also include 20- and 21-year-olds as an inducement to the European federations to sign a new agreement, rather than opting to go it alone as has Russia.
If Omsk were under some circumstance willing to release Cherepanov from the final year of his contract, surely it would be part of an agreement with Glen Sather that the winger would return to Russia, rather than be assigned to the AHL Wolf Pack, if he could not make the Rangers.
In other words, Broadway or Siberia.
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Brendan Shanahan’s recommendation on the icing/no-touch debate: “Make any infraction that occurs on an icing touch-up an automatic double-minor.” We’d add a game misconduct, as well.
Finally, you know the great thing about watching the NHL Network’s classic games? Getting to listen to Bob Cole. And you know the great thing about having the NHL Center Ice Package? Getting to listen to Bob Cole.