IN the first three months of 2008, murders were up 25 percent in New York City com pared to the same period last year. New Yorkers hearing of the rising violence will surely worry that the bad old days might be returning.
Most remember when murderous drug gangs carried on wars in our streets – mowing down hundreds of victims including scores of innocent bystanders.
Of course, that carnage brought a reaction – New Yorkers said Enough! And – thanks to increases in police strength by thousands of officers and the institution of new anti-crime strategies – crime began to fall steadily. Yearly murders dropped from 2,245 in 1990 to 496 last year.
Having spent many years charting trends in crime and policing, I’m frequently asked whether violence is likely to return to the levels of the early ’90s. The answer is clearly “no” for the short run – but the longer term holds reasons to worry.
The NYPD can deal with crime surges such as the present spike in murder. It will deploy officers to “hot spots” and, by using tactics tail- ored to specific problems, bring the situation under control.
But problems nationally and locally could cause crime to literally shoot up.
In the ’80s, the crack-cocaine explosion spread from other parts of the country to New York, triggering the drug wars. Something similar could be in the offing now – for murder rates rose in many US cities last year. This year’s early numbers show murder rising in Los Angeles and Chicago – the country’s second- and third-largest cities. This may be the harbinger of a national trend.
Another area of concern is the pending US Supreme Court ruling on Washington, DC’s gun-control law. One reason New York is much safer today than in 1990 is that firearm murders have fallen from the neighborhood of 1,500 a year to the 300 range. And key to that has been enhanced NYPD enforcement of the Sullivan Law (forbidding unlicensed persons to possess a handgun), which has deterred criminals from carrying their weapons.
But a federal appeals court last year struck down DC’s gun-control law on the grounds that it violated the Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms. If the Supreme Court affirms that ruling, statutes like New York’s Sullivan Law will likely face court challenges. And any undercutting of the NYPD’s authority to arrest gunmen will inevitably lead to a rise in shootings.
Finally, there is the question of the NYPD’s size. In 2000, there were nearly 41,000 officers in the force. But budget cuts and difficulties attracting recruits have reduced the number to the 35,000 range – and falling.
Department strength is scheduled to rise to 36,838 when a new police class is appointed this July. But the paltry starting salary of $25,100 a year – the result of collective bargaining – has discouraged recruits from entering previous classes, so that quota most likely won’t be filled. In any event, normal attrition will bring the force down to the 34,000 range in 2009.
All this, when the NYPD has had to detail a thousand officers to counterterrorism operations – compared to just 17 before 9/11.
Given the challenges it faces, it’s unreasonable to expect the NYPD to accomplish with 34,000 officers more than it did with 41,000. To keep New York safe, the NYPD needs a realistic staffing level – and to obtain that requires a much higher starting salary for recruits.
Thomas A. Reppetto, a criminologist, has authored five books on police and crime, including “NYPD: A City and its Police.”