THE Yankees dream. That is why Joba Chamberlain is being groomed now as a starter. The team’s main executives envision a day soon – in their fondest imagination, perhaps as soon as the August – of having a rotation in which the Nos. 1 and 2 starters are Chamberlain and Phil Hughes.
They won’t say that publicly because they don’t want to elevate the pressure on their young starters. But their scouting projections are that Chamberlain and Hughes are legitimate front-end mainstays. The Yanks want to believe if they get to the playoffs that they could unleash a quartet of Chamberlain, Hughes, Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte that would be as formidable as any.
In the bigger picture, the Yanks think that in the near future (maybe midway though 2009), Andrew Brackman will join Chamberlain, Hughes and Wang to give the Yanks four high-end, homegrown, twenty-something starters. Then they will fill in the backend with pitchers such as Ian Kennedy, Darrell Rasner, Alan Horne, Jeff Marquez and Daniel McCutchen.
Of course, nothing ever goes as diagrammed, especially when you are dealing with delicate young arms; especially when Hank Steinbrenner is going to have an itchy wallet when C.C. Sabathia comes waddling by. But because Brian Cashman gained greater autonomy in 2005, he has dedicated his administration to obtaining and developing as many quality young pitchers as possible. He is building the organization’s future (and probably his) around turning the Yanks into an arms factory.
He believes, after a lot of expensive mistakes, that homegrown pitchers are not only less costly, but are familiar with the organization’s culture and, thus, mesh more organically into the Yankees environment than a Randy Johnson or Javier Vazquez. Cashman hoped that if he populated the system with enough arms, it would work as a counter to the natural attrition from poor performance or injury.
But he also was determined to follow as cautious a path as possible to try diminishing arm injuries. That is why Chamberlain is currently in a middle ground between set-up genius and the rotation.
In 2008, Chamberlain always was a math problem to the Yanks: How do you best utilize 140 innings? If Chamberlain opens in the rotation, you have to shut him down around August when he reaches that plateau. If you keep him in the bullpen, Chamberlain finishes with about 80-100 innings and you have the same issue next year, limiting him to no more than 140 innings.
The question really is: Should the Yanks be limiting him to 140 innings?
“If you feel like you have one of these type players, you ride the horse as long as you can, but if you do it the wrong way, the horse will not run very long,” Cashman said. “We want to make sure we have this horse for as many races as we can and for the longest period possible.”
The Yanks studied the data and it strongly suggests that if you overload young pitchers – generally described as 25 or under – too hard, the chances for breakdown rises significantly. No one has better illustrated this over the past decade than Tom Verducci at Sports Illustrated, who annually shows the near across-the-board physical and/or statistical breakdown of pitchers under 25 asked to increase their workload by 30 or more innings over the previous year. This data is one reason for the Magic 140. Including the minors, regular season and postseason, Chamberlain threw 116 innings last season. Thus, 140 falls generally into the safe area.
Now many baseball people will tell you it is all hogwash, that deliveries and genetics are the most important factor. Of course they are vital. But the data is hard to ignore.
And for a cautionary tale, I suggest scrutinizing the so-far disappointing Tigers. A key to Detroit’s Motown Meltdown has been poor starting pitching. Jeremy Bonderman, Justin Verlander and Dontrelle Willis should all be in their primes; Willis is the oldest at 26. As recently as 2006, the trio was a combined 43-29 with a 3.87 ERA. Now, however, they are 5-11 with a 5.20 ERA. Maybe it is a small sample. Or maybe it is about heavy usage on young arms.
Bonderman threw the most innings by a pitcher 22 or under (543) than any righty since Dwight Gooden, who was done as an ace by 25. Maybe that was the drugs. Or maybe it was the 1,172 2/3 innings he had before his 24th birthday.
In 2003, his first year in the majors, Willis threw 51 more innings than the year before. The only lefties to throw more than Willis’ 1022 2/3 innings through their age-25 season over the past 20 years are the durable Sabathia, and Jim Abbott and Steve Avery, two more stars who burned out quickly.
In 2005, Verlander threw 130 total pro innings. In 2006, his first full major league season, that total climbed to
207 2/3 (playoffs included).
Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski said his organization has “guidelines” to protect young arms, especially when it comes to pitches per outing. Willis before this year was with the Marlins, but Dombrowski said when it comes to Bonderman and Verlander that both were never pushed on short rest and were given extra rest as much as possible between starts.
“I don’t believe there is a correlation” between the workloads and the performance, Dombrowski said.
And, again, it could just be coincidence. But the data is pretty strong that if you push early, you may get short-term benefits at the much greater risk of long-term despair. That is why Chamberlain is only in the migration period now, traveling between bullpen and rotation. The Yanks hope, with their caution, that his final destination is a lengthy stay as a No. 1 starter.