The vote for president looks like a squeaker – with Democrat Barack Obama edging out Republican John McCain by a razor-thin eight electoral votes, according to a Post analysis of a dozen battleground states.
Obama would win 273 electoral votes – just three over the 270 required to capture the White House, the analysis found.
Sen. McCain would win 265 votes, but a change of even one state could put him over the top.
A national CBS poll released yesterday shows Obama leading McCain, 48 percent to 42 percent, in the popular vote. But there are concerns for Obama, with 12 percent of Democrats saying they will back McCain.
Each candidate is doing surprisingly well on the other’s turf, polls show.
Obama is running ahead of McCain in two usually GOP states near the Republican’s home state of Arizona, a review of surveys posted by Rasmussen Reports and Pollster.com shows.
Obama is up by 6 percentage points in Colorado and 9 points in New Mexico. He is trailing McCain by only 6 points in Nevada.
President Bush won all three of those states, but carried New Mexico by only 6,000 votes.
Winning Colorado and New Mexico would take 13 electoral votes from the GOP and put them in the Democratic column.
Taking those states would put Obama in the White House – if he manages to hold on to all other states that Democratic nominee John Kerry won in 2004.
“This is going to be fascinating to watch,” said pollster Scott Rasmussen. “There are lots of Hispanics in New Mexico. Gov. Bill Richardson will help Obama there.”
Obama also is poised to win Iowa, which Bush narrowly carried in 2004. He is virtually tied there, with 44 percent to McCain’s 43 percent, in the latest Rasmussen poll.
The Democrat also will attempt to capture the 13 electoral votes of Virginia, which hasn’t voted for a Democratic president since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. McCain is favored in the commonwealth, but it has trended Democratic in recent state races. Conversely, McCain is faring well in a few of the industrial states near Obama’s Illinois.
A Rasmussen poll conducted last month had McCain ahead of Obama, 45 percent to 44 percent, in Michigan. A USA Survey showed McCain up by 4 points.
Michigan, a solid Democratic state in recent presidential elections, is worth 17 electoral votes. The controversy surrounding the Michigan Democratic primary vote could be hurting Obama, Rasmussen said.
Obama leads McCain by only 2 percentage points in Pennsylvania, worth 20 electoral votes. Winning the Keystone State would likely put McCain in the White House.
Ohio, with 20 electoral votes, will again be fiercely contested.
Of three polls taken in the Buckeye State within the past month, two show McCain ahead.
The McCain campaign is making a push with ads in these industrial states, as well as New Hampshire, with four electoral votes.
McCain also is expected to carry Florida, where polls have him comfortably ahead.