Ken Davidoff

Ken Davidoff

MLB

CC Sabathia’s slump is biggest what if for Yankees

BALTIMORE — Baseball’s marathon format, its reliance on a village full of ballplayers to attain the ultimate goal, allows you to play “What if…” longer than a Daisuke Matsuzaka start. These 2013 Yankees have provided enough material to last through the winter and then some.

What if Mark Teixeira had decided against playing in the World Baseball Classic? What if Yankees ownership hadn’t mysteriously soured on Russell Martin last November?

Most pertinent Monday night, here at Camden Yards: What if CC Sabathia had simply replicated his performance from last year, rather than decline precipitously into fifth starter territory?

The Yankees dropped this crucial series opener, 4-2 to the Orioles, primarily because they couldn’t hit Baltimore starting pitcher Chris Tillman, who struck out nine and walked none in seven-plus innings of work. In the bigger picture, Sabathia’s 7 ¹/₃ innings in a losing effort carried value because the Yankees’ savaged bullpen gained a greatly appreciated breather, with only Adam Warren called upon to record two outs.

In the biggest picture, however, the Yankees desperately need wins, and their highest-paid pitcher once again didn’t pitch well enough to lead his team to a victory in a game that produced the most excitement when Joe Girardi and his Baltimore counterpart, Buck Showalter, had to be restrained (by umpires) from attacking one another after Girardi’s accusation of Orioles sign-stealing.

“It’s frustrating, but it’s baseball,” the always accountable Sabathia said. “You’ve got to go out and try to keep the game close. It’s up to me to try to keep the game close and give these guys a chance to win.”

The Yankees (76-68) now trail the second wild-card Rays (78-64) by three games, four in the loss column, and also stand 1 ½ games (two in the loss column) behind the Orioles and Indians, both of whom are 77-66. Their chances of a miracle playoff run look grimmer than ever, as they’ve now lost four of their last five.

The culprits behind this predicament are too many to list in one newspaper column, yet for argument’s sake, think how many blemishes Sabathia could have covered with a characteristic campaign.

By allowing four runs (three earned — the unearned run came on his throwing error), Sabathia actually dropped his ERA from 4.86 to 4.82. He struck out six and walked two.

“If we had been scoring runs like we did the last week, he gets a win tonight,” Girardi said.

Then again, it’s because of the Yankees’ recent offensive surge that Sabathia (13-12) picked up an 8-5 win over the Orioles on Aug. 30, as he allowed five runs in 5 ²/₃ innings. The big lefty knows he has zero grounds for complaint.

“I made some pitches when I needed to,” Sabathia said, “but not enough.”

He shined as one of the American League’s best pitchers during his first three seasons in The Bronx, and though he dropped off last year because of two stints on the disabled list, he still put up a 3.38 ERA in 200 innings. His offseason featured surgery to remove a bone spur from his left elbow, and he hasn’t pitched with the same velocity or sharpness as in the past all season long.

When Alex Rodriguez launched career home run 652 to give the Yankees a 1-0 lead in the first inning, Sabathia gave the advantage right back, giving up a double to O’s leadoff man Nick Markakis and then seeing Markakis come around on Manny Machado’s sac bunt and Adam Jones’ sac fly. Three shutout innings and several loud outs later, the home team jumped ahead in the fifth, 3-1, on J.J. Hardy’s leadoff double, Michael Morse’s groundout to third base, Matt Wieters’ sac fly and back-to-back singles by Alex Casilla and Markakis.

Just as the limp offense needed to give the stellar pitching an occasional break earlier in this Yankees season, so the arms need to come through when the bats are quieter. And who better to honor that creed than the titular ace?

By using the advanced metric Wins Above Replacement, we can see that Sabathia has provided the Yankees with two-to-three fewer victories than he did last year. Think of what a difference those two or three Ws would make right now. Remember, too, that Sabathia still has another three guaranteed years on his contract plus a vesting option for 2017.

There’s no one scapegoat here in this foundering Yankees mission. If you engage in the “What if…” conversation, though? Sabathia’s a pretty good one on which to wonder.