Three years ago in this space, I wrote that you could take the millions of words written in the lead-up to Super Bowl XLI and reduce them to two: Peyton Manning.
And while Manning was far from his best and others made memorable plays (from Devin Hester’s 92-yard touchdown return on the opening kickoff to Kelvin Hayden’s 56-yard interception return touchdown to clinch it), the legendary Colts quarterback did win MVP honors in the 29-17 victory over the Bears.
So, off of that reasonably accurate prediction, I’ll say this about Sunday’s Super Bowl XLIV between the Colts and Saints: The outcome will be determined by just about everyone else besides Peyton Manning.
That’s because Manning’s performance, if he is left to operate from the security of a normally air-tight pocket, is a given. If the Saints can’t get to him, Manning will throw for more than 300 yards, three or four touchdowns and get to hold another Lombardi trophy over his head.
The Jets tried to beat the Colts in a conventional war, hoping their No. 1 ground game would rack up some points and a lot of minutes, and their No. 1 defense would do the rest. It didn’t work, as Shonn Greene got hurt, then Manning picked them apart with Reggie Wayne and, for the most part, Dallas Clark tied behind his back.
Conventional warfare will not beat the Colts. But here come the Saints, who are able and, more importantly, willing, to fight a guerrilla war that, if waged perfectly, will bring a championship to Bourbon Street.
Here, then, are some of the people who — more than the great Manning himself — will help to determine whether that happens:
Drew Brees: In Super Bowl XLI, Manning’s counterpart was Rex Grossman, a lightweight who had thrown 23 TDs and 20 interceptions in the 2006 season. Brees threw 34 TDs, just 11 INTs, directed the Saints to an NFL-high 31.9 points per game and is the team’s emotional leader. On his best day, this is a quarterback who can outdo Manning at his best.
Sean Payton: The Saints’ leading rusher (Pierre Thomas) had 793 yards and the top receiver (Marques Colston) had a modest 1,074. That’s remarkable for a team that had 6,461 yards, and it means there are numerous other weapons (Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, Jeremy Shockey, Mike Bell, David Thomas, Lance Moore and, of course, Reggie Bush). Payton, the head coach and offensive brains of the Saints, uses them all. And he does it without any noticeable tendencies, as the ESPN crew pointed out during the Saints’ rout of the Patriots this season. He also has the guts of a burglar.
Reggie Bush: This is a guy who can ruin the game for the Colts as a runner, receiver and returner. He is coming off another injury- plagued season but has been devastating in the playoffs.
Gregg Williams: Now we’re talking! The Saints defensive coordinator has intimated they will get Manning by all means necessary. The Jets got two early sacks then never laid another finger on him, and didn’t try to stretch the rules even after Mark Sanchez got hit late in the back on a straight handoff.
The Saints are going to hit Manning — clean, dirty, late, it doesn’t matter. Even if they get a 15-yard penalty that leads to a touchdown, Williams knows Brees can get it back. Rex Ryan did not know that about his offense.
New Orleans has given up points in these playoffs but also has beaten Kurt Warner and Brett Favre to a pulp. Warner already has retired thanks in part to Bobby McCray’s vicious block on an interception return, and although Favre wasn’t sacked, he could’ve used a medi-vac helicopter pickup from the roof of the Superdome for all of the injuries he suffered in that game.
The prediction here is that the Saints will score a lot and harass Manning enough. So grab the Saints at +5 and Over 561⁄2.
Saints, 30-27.
TWO WEEKS AGO: 0-2 vs. spread, 2-0 Over/Under.
dblezow@nypost.com