The NFL may be a league of parity, but the powerhouses are in the house for Super Bowl XLIV. For the first time in 17 years, the No. 1 seeds in the AFC and NFC survived the meat-grinder that is the playoff tournament. The Colts won their first 14 games, then turned their backs on an undefeated regular season. The Saints won their first 13 games before a late-season swoon. The two will take their rightful place Sunday on the field at Sun Life Stadium, with two of the league’s top quarterbacks, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, at the controls.
The Colts are favored, mainly because of Manning, but the Saints are live underdogs even though this is the first Super Bowl appearance in New Orleans’ 43-year NFL history.
Quarterbacks and receivers vs. defensive backs
When the Colts have the ball: You can be sure the great Peyton Manning will keep a watchful eye on S Darren Sharper (nine interceptions), a gifted ball-hawk. The development of young WRs Pierre Garcon and rookie Austin Collie takes some of the heat off ultra-dependable Reggie Wayne. Best cover man is CB Jabari Greer. CB Tracy Porter is also solid, although not much versus the run. TE Dallas Clark is another matchup problem for Manning to exploit. Edge: Colts
When the Saints have the ball: The fast-break attack directed by Drew Brees doesn’t lack for anything, with size (WR Marcus Colston), speed (WR Devery Henderson), physical superiority (WR Robert Meachem) and toughness (TE Jeremy Shockey, who may be hampered by an injured right knee). CB Kelvin Hayden fits the Indianapolis system and is able to re-route receivers at the line. S Antoine Bethea is a solid leader. S Melvin Buttlit is a good hitter, but the absence of injured S Bob Sanders is a big blow. Edge: SAINTS
THE COLTS’ ROAD TO THE SUPER BOWL
THE SAINTS’ ROAD TO THE SUPER BOWL
Offensive line vs. defensive line
When the Colts have the ball: Manning sure makes his guys up front look good. C Jeff Saturday is a blue-collar grinder and extremely smart, but the tackles are only ordinary, with RT Ryan Diem relying on grit and LT Charlie Johnson sure to see his share of blitzes. Johnson will have his hands full with DE Will Smith (13 sacks). DT Sedrick Ellis is starting to develop some pass-rush skills, but can be run at. Edge: Colts
When the Saints have the ball: The key here is the health of DE Dwight Freeney, who has torn ligaments in his right ankle. He certainly will be slowed and may be ineffective. That’s a huge blow and great news for LT Jermon Bushrod, the weak link of the Saints’ strong offensive line. New Orleans has perhaps the best guard tandem in the league, Jahri Evans and road-grader Carl Nicks, but RT Jon Stinchcomb will be tested by DE Robert Mathis. Edge: Saints.
Running backs vs. linebackers
When the Colts have the ball: RB Joseph Addai doesn’t break many big plays, but is an effective one-cut runner who makes decisive moves and sees the field. Rookie RB Donald Brown has excellent quickness, but doesn’t get the ball much. Linebacker is not a dominating group for New Orleans. Jonathan Vilma in the middle is strong in coverage and will make tackles, but needs to be protected in the running game. Scott Fujita is fine on the strong side, but Scott Shanle is less solid on the weak side. Edge: Saints.
When the Saints have the ball: New Orleans has a three-headed attack at RB, with Pierre Thomas the jack-of-all-trades, Mike Bell the short-yardage hammer and inconsistent Reggie Bush the X-factor, capable of busting loose, especially in the short-passing game. Undersized MLB Gary Brackett also is underrated and Clint Sessions has good speed, but the Saints will try to run right at him. Edge: Saints.
Special teams
Bush is always a threat on punt returns, but he had a muff in the NFC title game and doesn’t always make the most of his returns. The Saints’ Courtney Roby averages 27.5 yards on kickoff returns, and when he got banged up, Pierre Thomas had a huge return in overtime versus the Vikings. Chad Simpson and T.J. Rushing are not quite as effective for the Colts. Edge: SAINTS
Kicking game
Garrett Hartley nailed the 40-yard field goal in OT to beat the Vikings in the NFC title game and is 22 of 24 the past two years. He replaced veteran John Carney during the season. Saints P Thomas Morstead is a rookie with great size and a big leg. Colts’ Matt Stover (in for injured Adam Vinatieri) is 43 years old and reliable, but only from inside 40 yards. Colts rookie P Pat McAfee has 21 punts inside the 20 and can angle the ball out of bounds. Edge: SAINTS
Coaching
Jim Caldwell has quietly and firmly got the Colts here and is aided by a veteran staff. Saints coach Sean Payton exudes confidence and has put together a devastating offense. The Saints must hope that mouthy defensive coordinator Gregg Williams didn’t alert the officials to watch more carefully for extra hits on Manning with his “remember me” shots comment. Edge: SAINTS
Prediction
Having Freeney at less than full strength could be a huge blow because giving Brees time is a recipe for failure. The Saints defense always seems to come up with turnovers and if Brees can provide his team a lead, Manning may feel the pressure to try to do too much by himself.
Saints 34, Colts 24