FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Inside the Vegas casinos, all hell is breaking loose.
“Eighty to 90 percent of the action comes in the last two days,” Vegas Hilton Sports Book Executive Director Jay Kornegay said. “So it’s pretty much the calm before the storm.”
The storm will arrive early Sunday morning, in the form of lines at the betting windows at virtually every house on the Strip.
“They’re gonna start at 8 o’clock in the morning and they’re gonna be there all day, probably until 20 minutes before kickoff,” said John Avello, director of race and sports for the Wynn Las Vegas Casino Resort.
The affection for proposition bets will make for a strange atmosphere at times.
“People are cheering for meaningless plays,” Kornegay said, and chuckled. “Cheers go up because so-and-so caught a pass longer than 10½ yards.”
Some of Avello’s prop bets:
Peyton Manning over/under 317 yards passing.
Drew Brees over/under 288 yards passing.
Reggie Wayne over/under 74½ yards receiving.
Will the two Reggies (Bush and Wayne) both score or not?
Will the two Pierres (Garcon and Thomas) both score or not?
The QB Combo: total TD passes, interceptions and sacks combined by the two quarterbacks — over/under 8½.
A Do or Addai: Which one will happen first — will Joseph Addai gain 25 yards rushing or score a touchdown?
Peyton Place: Pick the quarter Peyton passes for the most yards.
Miami Brees: Pick the quarter Brees passes for the most yards.
SAINTS-COLTS
Colts -5: GM Mirage race and sports book director Jay Rood took a $2 million bet early last week on the Colts laying 2-1 on the moneyline.
Avello, who opened the game at 4, took a $100,000 bet on the Colts minus 5 ½, but when a bettor took the Saints plus the 5½, Avello dropped the line to 5 on Thursday afternoon.
“If there was a barrage of sophisticated money on one of the regular playoff games, this game could get pushed to 4,” Avello said. But the rules are different for a Super Bowl. “In a Super Bowl game, it’s hard for sophisticated money to overwhelm general public money.”
Kornegay opened higher than most at 4½.
“We got as high as 6, but that was just for a few hours,” Kornegay said. “Most of the time we were at 5½. We’re down to 5 now.”
The 56½ total is the highest ever on a Super Bowl.
Dwight Freeney’s right ankle undoubtedly has influenced the betting public. The line had reached 5½.
“The ticket count’s still about 60-40 Colts,” Rood said. “Freeney might have slowed it down a little bit.”
“We actually waited until we got Saint money before we moved it down,” Kornegay said. “Freeney’s a borderline mover. We’re not sure if he’s worth half a point in the Super Bowl, where others believe he is. We think the key to pressuring Brees will be up the middle.”
If it begins to look as if Freeney could play, Sean Van Patten at the Las Vegas Sports Consultants said he wouldn’t be surprised to see the line move back to 5½.
“T.O. played with a broken leg and he had a great game so it’s not far out of reach he could play and still be disruptive,” Van Patten said, citing Terrell Owens’ return from a leg injury to play for the Eagles in Super Bowl XXXIX.
“I’d be interested to see if he can make a cut without grimacing,” Rood said.
Van Patten said he thinks bettors might have jumped on the Colts because they won their Super Bowl three years ago in Miami.
“There’s a belief out there that it’s such a huge factor for a teams that’s been there before and have done it before,” Van Patten said. “And [the Colts] have been there fairly recently in the same stadium.”
Kornegay also said he wouldn’t be surprised to see a move back to 5½.
“They tend to bet the perceived better team,” he said, “but I know there’s a lot of sentiment revolving around the Saints. Most of the bigger bets will probably be on the Colts. All of the smaller tickets might be on the Saints. It might creep up a little bit.”
Rood said he believes the total is high.
“People think the game will be an Arena Football game,” Rood said. “I think the game is gonna be played at a little bit slower pace. If that occurs, I think it improves the Saints’ chances of staying within the number.”
Van Patten agrees.
“I don’t really see it being very high-scoring,” he said. “I think the Colt defense is underrated, especially their pass defense.”
“I wouldn’t be surprised to see 27-20, 27-21,” Van Patten said. “To me, it’s a Peyton Manning thing. Freeney’s a great player, but Peyton Manning’s everything for that team.”
“I think that the Colts are the overall better team,” Kornegay said. “Freeney’s a big name and everything like that. Overall, the Colt defense is very underrated. And I think the Saints offense, outside of the Cardinals game, has really struggled down the stretch.”
“I kinda look for the game to start off a little slow,” Avello said. “But Super Bowls have a way of shifting gears real fast. I think the key to the whole game is Brees keeping his composure and keeping the turnovers down.
“The deciding factor will be if Peyton Manning has the ball last down by less than 7. That’s the key.”