Realists know that all the kabuki diplomacy last week won’t slow Iran’s nuclear-weapons drive one bit. But there is a way to punish Tehran, dent its military capacity and — who knows? — maybe even complicate its nuclear plans: Have Israel take out Iran’s Lebanon force, Hezbollah, once and for all, when next a conflict erupts.
The likelihood of a new war is growing. Israeli President Shimon Peres recently raised alarms by claiming the terrorist group had gotten Scud missiles — which are more accurate and much longer-range than the Katyusha rockets Hezbollah has fired in the past. The head of Israeli army intelligence, Brig. Gen. Yossi Baidatz, echoed the claim this month.
US officials won’t confirm the Scud reports, and French and UN officials on the ground downplayed them. But Defense Secretary Robert Gates has accused Syria and Iran of “providing Hezbollah with rockets and missiles of ever-increasing capability.” And he’s warned that Hezbollah now has “far more rockets and missiles than most governments” — an estimated 40,000 — which “is obviously destabilizing for the whole region.”
Nicholas Blanford, reporting for Time magazine from Lebanon, says Hezbollah has “built new defensive lines and firing positions” and may be planning, for the first time, to have fighters “infiltrate Israel to carry out raids and sabotage missions.” Retired US Maj-Gen. Paul Vallely, relying on local sources, also believes Hezbollah may try to penetrate Israel, possibly through tunnels. He predicts fighting by summer.
One fear is that Iran will push Hezbollah to strike Israel, particularly military sites and airstrips, to preempt an Israeli attack on Tehran’s nuke program.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev recently described the situation as “very, very bad,” adding that any more tension could lead to “catastrophe.”
Maybe things will calm down, instead. But if a new conflict does erupt, it could be a chance to humble the Iranian regime.
Consider: The Lebanese terrorist group, founded under Iranian auspices in 1982, is the closest thing Tehran has to a major foreign-deployed conventional military force. Crippling this key Iranian asset — now positioned smack on the northern border of Iran’s most motivated foe — might rattle even the most Allah-trusting mullahs. No, it probably wouldn’t end Iran’s A-bomb threat — but it might make Tehran think twice as it moves ahead.
Many had hoped that Israel would crush Hezbollah the last time — back in 2006, when the terror group’s attacks prompted Israel to strike into Lebanon.
“The world must deal with Hezbollah,” President George W. Bush said, initially resisting calls to rein in Israel.
Even some Arabs leaders openly criticized Hezbollah, no doubt rooting for the Jewish state to deliver a powerful punch — and send Tehran a message.
Alas, Israel wasn’t prepared to deliver a final blow, and the world’s patience — including Washington’s — ran thin. After 34 days, the war was halted, with Iran’s Lebanese contingent alive enough to brag about it. Hezbollah (and Iran) had won.
Since then, Hezbollah has only grown stronger, politically (it’s now a major part of Lebanon’s government) and militarily. Iran continued to arm and fund its Lebanese pawns, sending them as much as $200 million a year. It also forged ahead with its nuke program, starting large-scale uranium enrichment the next year.
Today, “with Iranian support, Lebanese Hezbollah has successfully exceeded 2006 Lebanon conflict armament levels,” the Pentagon reported last month. And “Iran, through its long-standing relationship with Lebanese Hezbollah, maintains a capability to . . . threaten Israeli and US interests worldwide.”
Let’s face it: President Obama (like Bush before him) is loathe to use military force against Tehran, even to stop its nuclear climb. But a decisive rout of Hezbollah could sock the mullahs while avoiding a direct attack on their soil.
Since its 1979 revolution, Iran has repeatedly used proxies, including Hezbollah, to strike America — from the 1983 slaughter of Marines in Beirut to the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing to attacks now in Iraq and Afghanistan. If we won’t fight back ourselves, why not at least copy Iran’s tactics and use a proxy: Israel?
Yes, the Jewish state could fall short again, allowing Hezbollah to live to fight still another day — and enhancing Iran’s status even further. But the regime and its henchmen may instigate hostilities anyway, leaving Israel no choice.
In that case, Israel — and Washington — best be prepared to finish the job this time around. The world can’t afford another failure.abrodsky@nypost.com