TAMPA — In the next few days, Joe Girardi will make it official that Phil Hughes is the Yankees’ fifth starter.
There are still meetings this week, still final statements that could be offered, still an injury that can change minds and needs. But this was a competition in the faintest of ways. As I reported in early February, the Yankees brass was going to enter spring privately viewing Hughes as the clear fifth starter frontrunner.
The reality is that no one else could win the job. Hughes could only lose it. And strangely, he sealed the win Monday when, of all things, he lost by surrendering three homers, including a walk-off shot by Philadelphia’s Wilson Valdez.
But this was never a numbers contest. If so, Alfredo Aceves and Sergio Mitre, both of whom statistically have outpitched Hughes, would still be in the mix. This was more about projection. The Yanks like Mitre and, especially, Aceves. But they view both as back-end starters who already have reached their ceilings.
They envision Hughes as a No. 3 starter or better depending on his ability to keep the aggressiveness he showed last year out of the bullpen while honing what, until this point, had been an unappetizing changeup. Thus, Yankee officials were elated Monday despite the poor overall line by how far Hughes’ changeup had advanced, both in its deception and his trust in deploying it.
The homers they saw more as a function of the wind and Hughes’ still gaining arm strength. His fastball was mainly 89-91 mph, and the Yanks anticipate several mph more over the next few weeks. If that comes along with the changeup, the Yanks really may have a No. 3 starter in the No. 5 spot in 2010. But, just as vital, they also may have a No. 3 starter in the No. 3 spot in 2011 should Andy Pettitte retire and Javier Vazquez leave as a free agent.
Of course, the Yanks would probably just buy another starter in that situation. But they know neither Aceves nor Mitre can ever offer even mid-rotation protection. So it is Hughes’ job now because of what Hughes could mean going forward.
Brian Cashman refused to divulge the identity of the No. 5 starter before more meetings were held and all involved parties were informed of the decision. But he did say, “I can’t deny that 2010 and 2011 are part of the conversation. What does the team look like right now, but also what does the team look like going forward.”
That screams Hughes in the rotation.
That puts Joba Chamberlain into the eighth inning, Mitre in long relief and Aceves again in a jack-of-all-trades role. The deadline for releasing players without guaranteed contracts and owing just 45-days’ termination pay is 2 p.m. next Tuesday. So the Yanks will either trade Chad Gaudin by then or release him and owe about $713,000 of his $2.9 million salary. Boone Logan and Royce Ring, despite impressing the Yanks this spring, will be sent to Triple-A, leaving the Yanks without a second lefty so they can carry Aceves and Mitre.
Yankees officials know it will be uneasy to inform Aceves and Mitre that despite excelling in their rotation bids that they are going to the pen. But this reflects merely the Opening Day configuration. Aceves should know well that what exists for Game 1 is not permanent. After all, Aceves and David Robertson did not overly impress in spring last year and were demoted to Triple-A, yet both ultimately became integral members of a championship staff.
So Aceves and Mitre will probably get their starting shots yet. The Yanks saw positives out of likely Triple-A rotation members Ivan Nova, Romulo Sanchez, Dustin Moseley and Jason Hirsh, but would turn first to Aceves or Mitre should there be a rotation injury or stumble.
Thus, Hughes should know that Step No. 1 is done when it comes to being No. 5. He didn’t lose the job he was pretty much destined to win in spring. Now he has to keep not losing it all year.
joel.sherman@nypost.com