Foregone conclusion No. 1 of the 2010 baseball season: San Diego will trade Adrian Gonzalez. Foregone conclusion No. 2: The Red Sox will acquire Gonzalez.
Count me among those who believe the trading of Gonzalez before the July 31 deadline will be a major story this season. But I am not as convinced that Boston must be the landing place.
The Red Sox are the perceived front-runners because they badly want the player, the other mega-team (the Yankees) will not have any interest because of the presence of Mark Teixeira, and new Padres general manager Jed Hoyer was the long-time right-hand man to Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein. The common theory is that friendship will facilitate a deal.
Nevertheless, that relationship also can complicate matters. One of Hoyer’s first acts was to name Jason McLeod as assistant general manager. McLeod had been Boston’s director of amateur scouting. So the Padres have two executives intimate with the Red Sox’s system and also, vitally, know how Epstein truly values these pieces.
Trades of magnitude often are completed when teams deal touted prospects because they see blemishes up close that the rest of the industry perhaps doesn’t. For example, the Yankees included Arodys Vizcaino in the Javier Vazquez trade — despite perceptions that he might have been their second-best prospect — because they questioned his work habits, among other things.
Boston cannot sneak a flawed farmhand by Hoyer and McLeod, who know not just the skill level of these prospects but their home lives, work ethics, etc.
“Anyone who thinks Jed and Theo will just go into a room and get this done because they are friends is wrong,” said an executive with ties to both men. Translation: Despite Hoyer’s short time on the job, this quickly will be a signature move of his regime. He will not put friendship above getting what he wants.
In addition, Boston’s chances to obtain Gonzalez also, sadly, were impacted when top prospect, outfielder Ryan Westmoreland, had surgery last week to remove a cavernous malformation in his brain.
You hate to think in baseball terms when such a horrible condition strikes a 19-year-old. But while the Red Sox have among the majors’ deepest systems — in part because of McLeod’s strong drafts — Westmoreland and Casey Kelly had separated as the jewels of the system.
San Diego probably would not deal Gonzalez to Boston without getting one or the other. Now it is uncertain if Westmoreland will play again. So could the Red Sox really give up their other top prize, especially when they privately believe Kelly is speeding toward their rotation although he is just 20?
Would Boston deal Clay Buchholz? Unlikely unless the Red Sox re-sign free-agent-to-be Josh Beckett; and maybe not then either. Would San Diego accept a package built around Daniel Bard and Jacoby Ellsbury? Probably not. So if not Boston, what are the Padres’ other options?
They could wait until the offseason. Derrek Lee is a free agent and maybe the Cubs could build a package around elite shortstop prospect Starlin Castro; expectations exist that new Cubs owner Tom Ricketts is going to increase payroll. But the danger if San Diego waits until the offseason is that there will be free-agent options such as Lee and Carlos Pena who will cost first-base-hungry teams just money. And by the time this offseason rolls around, clubs may just decide to wait 12 months for a potential first-base, free-agent mother lode of Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard, who ranked 1-2-3 in homers last year in the majors.
Gonzalez was fifth, and the feeling is he could do better than 40 homers if liberated from pitching-haven Petco Park. Plus, he is an excellent fielder and doesn’t turn 28 until May.
He is attractive to many, but what helps the Red Sox is that suitors might be limited. The Mets, for example, adore Ike Davis and may want to save their money for Cliff Lee in the offseason. The Mariners recently pursued Gonzalez, but needed to use three big prospects to land Lee in the offseason. The White Sox would love Gonzalez to replace Paul Konerko, who is in his walk year, but they already deposited a lot of prospects on San Diego to obtain Jake Peavy last July, and almost certainly would not part with Gordon Beckham, which is probably a deal breaker.
The Dodgers’ owners are going through a divorce, and the frugal organization already had been asking teams to pay the salary of players they acquire, which is not going to happen here.
The Braves are viewed as a strong possibility because they could form a package around a top first-base prospect (Freddie Freeman) and superb pitching on the farm. But they made this kind of big, midseason deal for Teixeira in 2007, yet did not make the playoffs. So Atlanta could be hesitant here.
On the subject of Teixeira, his eight-year, $180 million contract is expected to be the benchmark for Gonzalez, who has a reasonable two years left at $10.25 million per year on his contract. The Orioles offered north of $140 million on Teixeira, and Gonzalez possesses the two-way impact and durability that made Teixeira so attractive to his home-state Orioles.
Baltimore definitely can form a package headed by an elite young pitcher (the Orioles wouldn’t part with Brian Matusz, but Chris Tillman or Jake Arrieta) and the type of fleet outfield prospect in Xavier Avery that San Diego wants to add to play in its spacious park. Nevertheless, while the Orioles are willing to go big on a free agent, Baltimore officials do not believe the team is ready yet to begin using its prospect base as a way to challenge the Yankees and Red Sox.
Except, if a team such as Baltimore does not step up, then the Red Sox’s chances to improve even more by acquiring Gonzalez grow further.
joel.sherman@nypost.com