Does the sci-fi spectacular “Gravity’’ have sufficient gravitas to win this year’s Best Picture Oscar? Not so long ago, I would have said “no way’’ and told you to put your money on the heavyweight biopic “12 Years a Slave’’ instead.
But as the upset of the heavily favored “Lincoln’’ by the crowd-pleasing “Argo’’ showed last time around, traditional models of predicting Oscars don’t necessarily work anymore.
As academy veterans die off, they are replaced by younger members who are apparently less impressed than their predecessors by prestige films set in the 19th century.
Even Turner Classic Movies host Robert Osborne, author of the academy-authorized “85 Years of the Oscar,’’ concedes the times, they are a-changin’.
“ ‘Lincoln’ had everything academy voters would normally prefer: prestige, elegance, seriousness,’’ he says. “But the academy is opening up voting, getting younger people involved.
“I just hope,’’ Osborne adds, that new voters “take the responsibility of picking the best and not just the most popular films.”
Certainly a lot more people have enjoyed the spectacle of Sandra Bullock floating weightlessly while trying to survive in space than will probably line up to watch the star of “12 Years,’’ Chiwetel Ejiofor, being forced at gunpoint to whip a female slave.
Notably light in the gravitas department — they’re basically raucous comedies — are a couple of other major Oscar contenders, Martin Scorsese’s drug-and-hooker fueled “The Wolf of Wall Street’’ and David O. Russell’s rollicking riff on ’70s con artists and FBI agents, “American Hustle’’ (the latter won the best feature prize from the New York Film Critics Circle last week, while “Gravity’’ and “Her’’ tied when the Los Angeles Film Critics Association voted on their awards on Sunday).
Yes, there are old-school prestige films on the list of possible nominees like the rousing Tom Hanks sea-hijack vehicle “Captain Phillips,’’ Disney’s factually dubious self-tribute “Saving Mr. Banks’’ and Weinsteins’ star-cameo-laden, civil rights struggle faux-biopic “Lee Daniels’ The Butler.’’
But generally, academy voters over the past few years seem less and less interested in films that are specifically designed to win awards.
Oscar bait like “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,’’ “Avatar,’’ “The Social Network’’ and “The Descendants” may rake in nominations, but the actual prizes for those years went respectively to quirkier fare like “Slumdog Millionaire,’’ “The Hurt Locker’’ and “The Artist.’’
Which explains why relatively lightweight films like “Inside Llewyn Davis’’ (mopey folk singer in 1961 Greenwich Village), “Her’’ (mopey writer falls in love with his new computer operating system) and “Nebraska’’ (demented geezer goes on a road trip with his mopey son) all have shots at Best Picture nominations this year.
It remains to be seen whether they can edge out nods for more traditional Oscar bait like “Dallas Buyers Club’’ (Matthew McConaughey as an unlikely AIDS crusader) and “All Is Lost’’ (Robert Redford tries to survive at sea in a crippled yacht).
We’ll find out when Oscar nominations are announced on Jan. 16. And expect lots of space-shuttle jokes when the statuettes are handed out March 2.
Handicapping the actors:
Unlike last year, when Daniel Day-Lewis had the Best Actor race wired, this year there are no fewer than a dozen credible candidates chasing just five slots: nominal front-runner Ejiofor versus Redford (who took the New York critics prize), Hanks, McConaughey, LA Critics winner Bruce Dern (“Nebraska’’), Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Wolf of Wall Street’’), Forest Whitaker (“The Butler’’), Christian Bale (“American Hustle’’), Oscar Isaac (“Inside Llewyn Davis’’), Michael B. Jordan (“Fruitvale Station’’) and Joaquin Phoenix (“Her’’).
On the Best Actress side, Cate Blanchett’s attention-getting turn as an alcoholic (“Blue Jasmine”) seems to be dominating a field likely to include Adèle Exarchopoulos (“Blue Is the Warmest Color’’) — the two shared the LA Critics prize — Bullock, Emma Thompson (“Saving Mr. Banks’’), Judi Dench (“Philomena’’), Amy Adams (“American Hustle’’) and Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Enough Said’’).