ARLINGTON, Texas — The Yankees are hoping for two painful, but ultimately successful confrontations with Cliff Lee in the near future: One from 60 feet, six inches tomorrow night, the other across a negotiating table in about six weeks.
If all goes perfectly for the Yankees, they would beat Lee in Game 7 of the AL Championship Series and then have him join them in November or December on a free-agent contract.
First on the agenda is beating Texas tonight in Game 6 to force a decisive ALCS showdown tomorrow: Lee against the defending champs in a winner-goes-to-the-World-Series contest that would probably be a ratings bonanza.
It would further the perception that Texas’ 11th-hour decision in July to include Justin Smoak in a package in order to steal Lee away from the Yankees was the most vital maneuver of the 2010 season. It is a maneuver that will have resonance in the offseason.
Think about it: If the Yankees had obtained Lee in July, re-signing him would feel like a formality. No other club legitimately would sense it could get to Lee. There would be no strong emotional bonds elsewhere. The Rangers, for example, would be non-players for him.
Now, however, the Rangers have gone further than ever before in the playoffs, seeing the value in Lee as both ace and in energizing their fan base. The Rangers are at a transformative moment in franchise history, especially with a new, front-loaded TV deal ready to begin that will strengthen their financial bottom line. New owner Chuck Greenberg has pledged a significant effort to retain Lee.
And Lee’s ability to help the Phillies last year and the Rangers this year get to and then thrive in the playoffs could prod other suitors to pursue that magic. For example, the Cubs also have new and even richer ownership. And is there any franchise that needs a player that currently defines playoff success more than the Cubs, working on their second century without a championship?
The Angels, like the Yankees before they signed CC Sabathia, are a team used to making the playoffs that didn’t this year. In the recent past, they have fallen short of the big free-agent score on Sabathia and Mark Teixeira, in particular. But now the Rangers have the AL West crown, so the Angels could be more motivated big-game hunters.
There also has been buzz about the Nationals making an aggressive run at Lee.
In other words, the Yankees’ path to signing Lee long-term is not quite as clear as it would have been had they completed that trade for the ace in July.
Translation: Cha-ching.
“The bottom line is he has put himself in a good spot either way,” Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said. “When you perform, you put yourself in a good place.”
Sabathia currently owns the record for average value on a multi-year pitching contract ($23 million) and also total dollars ($161 million over seven years). Lee would seem certain now to at least top $23 million. Lee is two years older than Sabathia, so teams — including the Yankees — will try to keep the deal to four or five years.
But, really, the Yankees bent quickly when Sabathia demanded a seventh year when they were offering six, and I can’t imagine them not bending for a sixth year here if that is what it would take. A deal for $150 million over six years — $25 million annually — feels like where this is heading.
Sure, there would be concerns about having a pitcher in his age-32 to age-37 seasons. But it will be a hard sell to tell Lee that the Yankees were willing to commit five years to A.J. Burnett through his age-36 season, but would not go a little further for the game’s best playoff pitcher.
The Yankees will not retain Javier Vazquez. Andy Pettitte could retire. That duo made $23.25 million combined this year, which would go a long way toward paying Lee in 2011. And the Yankees could more comfortably work in a minimum-wage starter such as Ivan Nova on the back end if Sabathia and Lee are logging high-end ace innings up front.
The Yankees are still the favorites to do just that. It’s just that their life would have been easier — in the ALCS and the offseason — had they been able to obtain Lee in July.