Opinion

Holding Iran at Bay

Yesterday’s decision by a Saudi-led “coalition of the willing” to enter Bahrain raised the stakes in a skirmish over a small island. It could also turn into one of the most decisive battles in the ongoing war for the shape of a new Mideast.

But this one isn’t for, or against, democracy. Although striving for democracy is at the heart of the Bahrain crisis, Riyadh decided to intervene for one reason: to stop the advances of its most feared regional rival — Iran.

The Saudi-led convoy, with troops from Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Oman, crossed into Bahrain yesterday via the King Fahd Causeway, which connects the tiny Gulf island state to Saudi Arabia.

Anti-government unrest had intensified over the last few days with the takeover of key government buildings. And while the Bahraini protesters frame their campaign in democratic ideals, like so many others in Mideast streets and town squares these days, the battle for Bahrain is also sectarian: A Shiite majority of almost 70 percent of the population, which has long been ruled by a Sunni king, now wants more say in the country’s decision-making.

Yes, the protests were launched a month ago as a homegrown reaction to events across the region since the Tunisian revolt broke out in December.

But as the prospects improved for a successful overthrow of the regime of King Hamad bin Isa Al-Khalifa, the Shiite regime in Tehran saw an opening.

Iranians have coveted Bahrain for decades, arguing that the island was once part of their country. In the 1960s, Arab rulers had to pay off the shah to convince him to renounce ownership of Bahrain and drop a plan to annex it. Now some Tehran legislators and officials are trying to revive the flame, demanding to reseize Iran’s “14th province.”

But a takeover would be catastrophic — and not just because it would further encourage Iranian-backed battles against several local Sunni regimes that rule over Shiite minorities, including the Saudis.

This is a very strategically located piece of property — it’s not for nothing that we decided to locate the naval headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. Control of it would give Iran land access into Saudi Arabia and, more important, decisive power to control global petroleum markets.

In short, unless it’s stopped, the Iranian regime — which has a knack for forging tactical alliances with the region’s pro-democracy forces and even rival Sunni Islamists — will emerge out of this winter of Arab discontent as the top winner. Threatened by that outcome, the Saudis opted to move in to solidify the Bahraini kingdom’s hold on power.

Iran watchers tell me they doubt Iran will retaliate by sending in its own troops. For one thing, where the Saudis could enter by land, over the scenic causeway, Iran would have to invade by sea — and its weak naval forces are much better at using small boats for hit-and-run attacks on vulnerable targets than at a large-scale, amphibious assault.

That said, Iran can fall back on a strategy it’s developed over the years — quiet infiltration. Rather than invading, the Islamic Republic supports natural religious or political allies by showering them with funds, arms, military advisers and Revolutionary Guards to guide and indoctrinate them. That way, Tehran gains influence, even outright control, over such nearby territories as Lebanon and Gaza — and even some power as far away as South America.

In Bahrain, Iran has used such strategy since the start of the unrest. It’s likely now to increase its involvement in order to further extend its sway over the island’s Shiites.

Washington has so far wisely avoided jumping on Bahrain’s pro-democracy bandwagon. Rather than throwing Bahrain’s king under the bus — as we did Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak — President Obama encouraged Manama to lead a reform process. It’s also unlikely that the Saudis moved in yesterday without at least a tacit nod from Washington.

But here’s a question: If it’s a wise move for the Saudis to lead a military contingency of interested parties into a neighboring sovereign country (even if Bahrain’s government invited them in) — and if the Gulf Arabs can do so without the approval of the Arab League, the UN Security Council or any other international body — why can’t we do it elsewhere? beavni@gmails.com