Carlos Beltran (Anthony J. Causi)
Chris Capuano (Anthony J. Causi)
I was talking with a veteran scout a few days back who does not fall into the curmudgeonly, “hates everyone” category frequented by many of his brethren.
In other words, his DNA is not to trash whatever team or player you bring up, nor has he ever shown a habitual inclination to downgrade the Mets. I asked what he liked about the Mets this spring and he said, “There aren’t many fans at the game, so I can sit wherever I want behind home plate.”
I said, no, seriously. He paused for a few seconds and then said, “Lucas Duda is better than I thought.” But in his mind that only upgraded Duda from non-prospect to a helpful corner utilityman.
As for the other young Mets he had seen, he said, “The future is so bright you have to wear rose-colored glasses.” As for veteran Mets, he sounded particularly alarmed by the swings of Jason Bay and David Wright.
Now this is spring training. What you see is not always what you get. So making intractable proclamations from here is silly. I don’t remember anyone last March predicting a Rangers-Giants World Series. And if you want to be particularly optimistic as a Mets fan, Texas’ ownership plight was as bleak at this time last year as the Mets’ situation is now.
Can the Mets surprise? Sure. But it feels as if it would take so many dominoes to fall just so. For example, say you believe that to be a contender, the Mets need 500 plate appearances from Carlos Beltran and 25 starts from Chris Young. Would you put the chance of each happening at, say, 20 percent? If so, it means they have a four-percent chance of occurring concurrently.
I recognize this is no perfect science. You can’t just say this has a 30-percent chance of occurring, something else 70-percent, something else 50-percent and put it into one of those long equation strings you might have seen up on the board in “Good Will Hunting” and emerge with a definitive result describing the Mets’ chances at contention — kind of the sum of all fears in the Mets’ case.
Nevertheless, I saw value in assessing the Mets’ key issues and assigning what I thought the probable percentages were as a way to form an impression of the Mets heading toward the season:
CARLOS BELTRAN HAS 500 PLATE APPEARANCES (20 percent)
He has 612 combined the past two years and needed to be at least temporarily shut down after one game as a DH this spring.
JOHAN SANTANA MAKES 10 STARTS (30 percent)
A Mets official pointed out that the Phillies have problems, too, noting Chase Utley’s knee issues are as concerning as Beltran’s. Indeed. But Philadelphia has four aces to fall back on, and the Mets ace is playing catch from 60 feet.
Every Mets person spoken with suggests that we will not see the best of Santana again before 2012. And, remember, shoulders are more concerning than even elbows, so maybe Santana is never going to be Santana again.
JASON BAY HAS 500 PLATE APPEARANCES (80 percent)
No one would have anticipated Bay not playing after July 25 last year due to a concussion, so this is not easy to anticipate now. Yet with as iffy as Bay and Beltran are, Mets officials have defined the middle of their order — those two plus Wright — as a strength.
So even this new, supposedly more logical management group is addicted to a Mets’ problem of being overly optimistic that the best-case scenario will prevail and also shunning that strengths and weaknesses are judged by comparisons to other clubs, not simply what you think of your own players.
For example, do you think the Mets’ 3-4-5 is better than Washington’s? At best, Wright is equal to Ryan Zimmerman. Jayson Werth has an edge over Bay. And though Beltran at his best is superior to Adam LaRoche, I think the Mets would sign up this second for Beltran to be a 25-homer/85-RBI man — or what LaRoche brings every season.
Ike Davis is probably a safer bet to have a strong year out of the six-hole than Washington’s Mike Morse (15 homers, 266 at-bats). But let’s take the comparison game a little further. The Mets love Davis. But the 25/85 of a journeyman first baseman like LaRoche is probably equivalent to what to expect from Davis. In fact, it will be interesting at the end of this year to see how the inexperienced NL East first basemen rank: Davis, Atlanta’s Freddie Freeman and Florida’s Gaby Sanchez (or Logan Morrison if he is moved there).
R.A. DICKEY IS FOR REAL (80 percent)
This might be too high for a knuckleballer who found himself at 35. But count me among those who just love the story.
THE METS CURRENTLY HAVE A MAJOR LEAGUE SECOND BASEMAN (5 percent)
It is one thing to give up defense and have Dan Uggla playing second. It is another to do so with Brad Emaus and/or Daniel Murphy. Luis Castillo has lost almost all of his range and he is still far superior to either one.
JOSE REYES IS HEALTHY AND PRODUCTIVE (80 percent)
He looks strong with good burst. And here is something to worry about as the Mets figure out what to do with Reyes: Is this an example of a guy getting into great shape in his walk year? I am wondering the same about Francisco Rodriguez, whose $17.5 million option kicks in with 55 games finished. Because he is in better shape than any time as a Met, right now.
CHRIS YOUNG AND CHRIS CAPUANO COMBINE FOR 50 STARTS (10 percent)
Like Beltran’s 500 plate appearances rather than a full season of 600-plus, the bar here is 25 starts apiece rather than 30-plus. Padres officials who know Young well admire him as a person, competitor and teammate, but have real concerns if his shoulder can get through a whole campaign.
He has made just 36 starts over the past three years. Capuano has made nine. If they were the Nos. 4-5 starters of another club in which you did not have an emotional investment (say, Kansas City) how many starts would you think they would make? Probably nowhere near 50.
joel.sherman@nypost.com