And so here we are. Finally, we can stop theorizing about the state of the Yankees’ rotation — which turned into the favorite pastime of the offseason.
Facts begin today, albeit with the only element of that rotation that does not cause large-scale Yankees panic: CC Sabathia.
In essence, the offseason has been one long counseling session for an organization and its fan base to get over a fantasy rotation that never materialized. The Yankees never did unite Cliff Lee and Andy Pettitte with Sabathia to form a big-game tested trio of lefties that would have, among other things, de-emphasized A.J. Burnett to a No. 5 starter and made Ivan Nova depth for a rainy day.
But the Yankees have reality now, not fantasy: Burnett is a fulcrum player who could swing the Yankees season wildly one way or the other. Nova is the No. 4 starter. Freddy Garcia won a geriatric shootout against Bartolo Colon to be the No. 5 starter because, of all things, he was viewed as more durable.
This is not a Fantasy Island rotation.
So then let’s deal in reality. Let’s begin with a 4.35 ERA. That was what the Yankees’ rotation offered up last year. That was 22nd in the majors. Yet the Yankees still found a way to win 95 games. Burnett and Javier Vazquez had two of the worst seasons by Yankees full-time starters in their history. Yet the Yanks still found a way to win 95 games.
In other words, the Yankees navigated around a lot of rotation problems last year, yet still found a way to win 95 games. Heck, in a major league-high 18 games after Aug. 1, a Yankees starter did not even pitch the requisite five innings to qualify for a win.
The Yankees still earned the wild card by leaning on the good work of their bullpen, the highest-scoring offense in the majors and a veteran group expert at understanding how to get from Point A to the playoffs. Consider that the Yankees actually found a way to go 7-11 in those 18 games in which a starter failed to reach even five innings.
Well, it could be argued that the bullpen will be even better this year with Rafael Soriano as the key set-up man. Is there reason to think the Yankees will score much fewer than the 859 runs of last year? Heck, if Alex Rodriguez is really going to return to the 40-homer, 140-RBI, MVP-ish mode he hinted at in spring, then the 2011 Yankees will probably outscore the 2010 Yankees.
And even without Pettitte, the Yankees roster still is dripping with postseason experience.
So can these assets again overcome a problematic rotation? With general good health, probably. But maybe the better question is: Do the Yankees have a problematic rotation?
“I can’t see us having two guys perform as badly as we had for as long as we did last year, but at the same time Burnett is one of those guys,” GM Brian Cashman said. “Nova is a rookie. We lost Pettitte. I believe we will be fine, but it is a fair question. I look forward to answering those questions with what we throw out there. That’s the challenge.”
The challenge begins with this: Can they do better than 22nd in the majors in ERA even without Lee or Pettitte? That is a low bar. Here is a higher one: Can this rotation pitch with that of Boston’s?
On paper, the Rays probably have the AL East’s best rotation. But the Red Sox are widely viewed as the divisional team to beat. Yet the Yankees’ bullpen and offense is no worse than Boston’s and possibly better.
So can Sabathia match or outdo Boston’s lefty ace Jon Lester? Can Phil Hughes be the equal or better of Boston’s young, high-ceiling righty Clay Buchholz? Can Burnett rebound better than his one-time Marlins teammate Josh Beckett, whose 5.78 ERA last year was actually far worse than Burnett’s? Can Nova and Garcia provide a back-end competence similar or better than John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka?
And can Cashman outdo counterpart Theo Epstein by reaching into the treasure trove of young arms he has been incubating for years to find rotation solutions by using the prospects to pitch or to obtain a veteran?
The theorizing ends today. Is this the start of something great for the Yankees?
joel.sherman@nypost.com