MLB

2011 Yankees Preview: Poised to contend for title

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TAMPA — Yankees fans can lament Cliff Lee landing in Philadelphia and Andy Pettitte retiring in Texas.

They can sweat what type of year A.J. Burnett will deliver, wonder if general manager Brian Cashman was right about $35 million for Rafael Soriano being too much and ask themselves if Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Robinson Cano can carry a suspect rotation after CC Sabathia.

Yet, even the biggest self-hating Yankees fan has to have a hard time picking a team other than the Bombers to cop the AL wild card. And that’s before they make their annual moves in July, one of which likely will bring a quality starter to The Bronx.

That’s not to say the Yankees are a lock to make it to the postseason. Far from it, but look around. After the Red Sox, do you see a better team than the Yankees?

The Twins will win the AL Central and the Rangers, even without Lee and Vladimir Guerrero, will take the AL West.

That leaves the White Sox, Tigers, Angels and A’s to chase the Yankees for the back-door entry into October. Forget about the Rays, Blue Jays and Orioles.

Do you really believe any of them are better than the Yankees?

YANKEES ESSENTIALS

MOST IMPORTANT EVERYDAY PLAYER: Russell Martin. He has to work with a new staff in a new league. How he handles Burnett is key. Has to improve at the plate.

MOST IMPORTANT PITCHER: If A.J. Burnett doesn’t bounce back, the Yankees are in trouble. However, the winner in this category is always Mariano Rivera because who closes if he can’t?

WILL HAVE A BIGGER YEAR THAN EXPECTED: Curtis Granderson should be more comfortable in his second season, once he gets over his late-spring training oblique injury.

MOST LIKELY TO DISAPPOINT: Soriano was paid $35 million for three years against the wishes of Cashman, who said that was too much for an eighth-inning setup man. Unfortunately for the Yankees, Soriano is about to prove Cashman correct.

KEY CALL UP: Manuel Banuelos is the pitcher everybody wants to see in the majors. However, Adam Warren will be the first hurler promoted if the rotation needs a fix.

BIGGEST MANAGERIAL DECISION: How long will Joe Girardi stick with Derek Jeter at the top of the lineup and Jorge Posada as the DH if they don’t hit?

DON’T BE SURPRISED IF: Ivan Nova wins 12 games.

SURE TO MAKE FANS GRUMBLE: Teixeira getting off slow and Burnett repeating last year’s nightmare.

WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS: If Burnett bounces back, Soriano adjusts to not closing games and nothing happens to Rivera.

WILL MISS PLAYOFFS: If Burnett doesn’t bounce back, Soriano flops, Rivera suffers an injury and Martin doesn’t adjust to new surroundings.

INJURY THAT WOULD HURT THE MOST: The Yankees can’t survive an injury that would shelve Rivera for an extended period of time.

PLAYING THE FIELD

FIRST BASE: After two years, it’s a given Mark Teixeira is going to start slowly. Then he is going to finish among the Top 10 in homers and RBIs while providing Gold Glove defense.

SECOND BASE: Remember when Chase Utley was considered the best second baseman in baseball and Robinson Cano wasn’t in the discussion? Now, Utley is fading fast in Cano’s rear-view mirror as he moves into the talk about best players in the game.

SHORTSTOP: Derek Jeter will be 37 in June. Critics point to his lack of range. Supporters want late-inning ground balls hit to him. Critics cringe over the career-low .270 last year. Supporters believe his new stride with the front foot will help him return to a .300 hitter. Needs 74 hits for 3,000.

THIRD BASE: Alex Rodriguez is in terrific shape and had a sizzling spring. After consecutive 30-homer seasons, is it too much to ask the 35-year-old to slug 40 and drive in 130 runs? It had better not be.

LEFT FIELD: Brett Gardner evolved into an every-day player a year ago when he batted .277, scored 97 runs and posted an OBP of .383. Now, he has to improve on those numbers whether he hits first (vs. RHP) or ninth.

CENTER FIELD: The belief is a simple one: Curtis Granderson’s second year in The Bronx will be better than the first. Everything a year ago was new. Now it’s not. A simple adjustment made by hitting coach Kevin Long late last season worked and Granderson was having a sensational spring before straining an oblique muscle late in camp. He possibly will be hampered at the beginning of the season or start it on the disabled list.

RIGHT FIELD: Nick Swisher’s first two seasons in pinstripes have been terrific since he has averaged 29 homers and 85 1/2 RBIs. But the Octobers have been downers thanks to a combined .146 (12-for-82). Now, Swisher is in a walk year if the Yankees don’t pick up a $10.25 million option. Will that be too much pressure?

CATCHER: Russell Martin takes over for Jorge Posada and must hit more than the .250 and .248 he did the past two years with the Dodgers, who non-tendered him. Surgically repaired knee slowed him at the start of camp but wasn’t an issue later.

DESIGNATED HITTER: Jorge Posada makes the transition from starting catcher to DH. Logic dictates that without the bumps and bruises of catching, the switch-hitter will hit. However, what isn’t known is if Posada handle not being involved in the entire game.

BENCH: Andruw Jones was the biggest addition. He is expected to play left field against lefties but didn’t show much in spring training. Decisions about back-up infielder and catcher were still being discussed late in camp.

STARTING ROTATION: CC Sabathia is a legitimate ace, but after him there are questions. Can A.J. Burnett bounce back from a miserable year? Will Phil Hughes win 18 games again? How much can be expected from fourth starter Ivan Nova and No. 5 man Freddy Garcia? And who will the Yankees get in a trade before the deadline.

BULLPEN: Hank Steinbrenner said the sting of not getting Cliff Lee was reduced by acquiring Rafael Soriano and turning the pen into the best in baseball. We will see. Mariano Rivera, at 41, remains an elite closer and David Robertson is emerging as a reliable reliever. Boone Logan is the only experience lefty in the pen because Pedro Feliciano will open the season on the DL. Where does Joba Chamberlain fit?

PREDICTION: 91-71; Second in AL East, wild card