PORT ST. LUCIE — David Wright doesn’t buy the notion the Mets need to catch almost every break if they are to contend for the playoffs in 2011.
Repeating a familiar refrain from last spring, Wright says health will be the determining factor in how the Mets fare. That means keeping Jason Bay and Carlos Beltran in the same lineup for more than a week, Jose Reyes remaining on the field, and reclamation projects Chris Young and Chris Capuano staying healthy in an already-thin rotation.
And it goes without saying that integral pieces to the lineup such as Wright, Angel Pagan and Ike Davis stay healthy.
“You need your horses out there to accomplish what you want to accomplish offensively. You need the guys that are supposed to be out there playing every day,” Wright said.
Bay already is hurting, sidelined by ribcage soreness that could land him on the disabled list to start the season. Beltran missed most of spring training trying to recover from tendinitis in his left knee. Already, the Mets know they will be without ace Johan Santana for at least 21/2 months. The bad news must stop there if the Mets are going to have any chance of dealing with the Phillies and Braves in the NL East.
“The thing I like a lot about this team is there [are] a lot of guys who have something to prove this year and are going out there and playing with a little chip on their shoulder,” Wright said. “That’s a good thing for a team, when they have a chip on their shoulder.”
Unless, of course, that chip has to be surgically removed.
MET ESSENTIALS
MOST IMPORTANT EVERYDAY PLAYER: Jose Reyes is still the engine that propels the Mets. Reyes needs a return to 2008 form for the Mets to have a shot at assembling a special lineup.
MOST IMPORTANT PITCHER: R.A. Dickey needs to resume where he finished 2010. The Mets want Dickey to win games and eat up innings, helping ease the burden on a bullpen that could be overextended.
WILL HAVE A BIGGER YEAR THAN EXPECTED: Expectations couldn’t be much lower for Carlos Beltran, coming off two straight seasons in which knee problems have limited his playing time. Look for Beltran to approach 25 homers and 90 RBIs in his final season with the Mets.
MOST LIKELY TO DISAPPOINT: Mike Pelfrey has to carry the “ace” label while Johan Santana recovers from shoulder surgery. Pelfrey is streaky and may have a difficult time matching last season’s 15 victories.
KEY CALL UP: Jenrry Mejia will begin the season as a starter in the minor leagues and could provide a boost to the rotation by the All-Star break. Mejia’s development will be closely watched, especially if Santana isn’t ready as planned.
BIGGEST MANAGERIAL DECISION: How should Terry Collins deploy Daniel Murphy? The Mets would love to have Murphy in the lineup every day, but don’t have a regular position for him. The challenge will be finding him at-bats to utilize his lefty swing.
DON’T BE SURPRISED IF: Francisco Rodriguez finishes 55 games, triggering his $17.5 million option for next season.
SURE TO MAKE FANS GRUMBLE: If the Mets get to the trading deadline in playoff contention and decide to trade Reyes.
WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS IF: The Braves and Phillies incur substantial injuries and the Mets get a close-to-normal Johan Santana for the stretch run.
WILL MISS PLAYOFFS: They don’t receive enormous luck.
INJURY THAT WOULD HURT THE MOST: Nobody wants to find out what the Mets’ plan is should Angel Pagan need to miss extended time in center field.
PLAYING THE FIELD
FIRST BASE
Ike Davis made a splash as a rookie, but will he blossom into one of the NL’s best at the position? Defensively he is already there.
SECOND BASE
Could be a revolving door all season. Brad Emaus starts the season there, but the Mets ideally would like to find a position for Daniel Murphy.
SHORTSTOP
Jose Reyes will have incentive to produce big numbers in the final year of his contract. Reyes could be gone by the trade deadline if Mets fall from contention.
THIRD BASE
David Wright rebounded to hit 29 home runs last season and is still the face of the franchise.
LEFT FIELD
Jason Bay has a ribcage injury and could start the season on the DL. He needs a big year to avoid becoming a target among fans. Lucas Duda or Nick Evans could get a shot if Bay is sidelined.
CENTER FIELD
Angel Pagan had a breakout season in 2010 and became an important piece in the lineup. Pagan will have to cover plenty of ground.
RIGHT FIELD
Carlos Beltran’s knees figure to be a prime story line this season. If the Mets can keep Beltran healthy a full season, the lineup has a chance to be special.
CATCHER
Josh Thole’s game behind the plate keeps improving and he brings a steady bat to the lineup. The Mets like backup Ronny Paulino because of his offensive skills.
BENCH
Scott Hairston and Willie Harris provide veteran help in the outfield, and Murphy brings a nice bat off the bench. Chin-lung Hu is a highly regarded defensive player at shortstop and second base.
STARTING ROTATION
Johan Santana won’t return until the summer — if the Mets are lucky — putting the pressure on Mike Pelfrey, R.A. Dickey and Jon Niese to carry the rotation. Chris Young and Chris Capuano are both reclamation projects who need to stay healthy. Dillon Gee likely will be the first starting pitcher called up if the Mets suffer an injury in the rotation. Jenrry Mejia could be on the scene by midseason.
BULLPEN
Francisco Rodriguez will try to keep his temper in check and reestablish himself among the game’s top closers. They have depth with Bobby Parnell, Taylor Buchholz and D.J. Carrasco. Tim Byrdak will be entrusted with the lefty specialist’s role. Jason Isringhausen could get back into the picture at some point.