It is that time of the year again; the time to do my least favorite thing: Make predictions.
We guess today and then tomorrow there is a major injury or a huge trade, and — well — you get it; the unpredictable has occurred scuttling what we thought in the preseason.
Nevertheless, I am required to do this. So I reached out to more than 20 baseball officials to ask — based on their instincts and what they had seen in spring training — what they thought about the upcoming season. This Crystal Ball is based, to some large extent, on synthesizing those responses and adding my own four cents:
AMERICAN LEAGUE
MVP: Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox. Yes, he had shoulder surgery and changed leagues. But he thrived in a terrible hitter’s park and in a bad lineup, and now gets Fenway and the Red Sox. Swing is made for the Green Monster (think 50 doubles). Alex Rodriguez should make a charge at a fourth MVP (third as a Yankee).
CY YOUNG: Jon Lester, Red Sox. So hard not to pick Seattle’s Felix Hernandez. But Lester should benefit from an improved lineup and bullpen to edge out King Felix and Detroit’s Justin Verlander.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Jeremy Hellickson, Rays. Beats out fellow AL East rooks Zach Britton (Baltimore) and Kyle Drabek (Toronto).
DON’T BE SURPRISED IF (Yankees Edition) …
* Eduardo Nunez and Dellin Betances are traded to the Angels for Jered Weaver, a Scott Boras client 11⁄2 years from free agency. Yeah, the Yankees are concerned about getting involved with another Weaver brother, but his high-end stuff is too attractive.
* New pitching coach Larry Rothschild has little success with A.J. Burnett, who pitches to a 4.75 ERA. That sparks a round of Andy Pettitte returns in July rumors. Pettitte does not actually return.
* The Yankees break their policy of not negotiating before free agency, and get an extension done with CC Sabathia. In exchange for Sabathia giving up his opt-out clause, the Yankees tack two years at $50 million on top of the four years at $92 million left.
* Derek Jeter bats .290 and gets his 3,000th hit on June 15 vs. Texas. Oh, what the heck: In the third inning, a double to left on a cutter from C.J. Wilson.
* Andruw Jones is released in June as a flop, and to fill the fourth outfielder spot, the Yankees re-acquire Melky Cabrera, who is in the midst of a rebound year with the Royals.
DON’T BE SURPRISED IF (AL Edition) …
* Manny Ramirez revives enough in Tampa to hit 20-25 homers, drive in 100 runs and hit .300.
* Toronto’s Jose Bautista does not repeat his shocking 54-homer output, but shows he was no power fluke by hitting 35.
* Baltimore’s Mark Reynolds hits 40 homers in Camden Yards, but also breaks his own single-season strikeout record by becoming the first-ever to 240 (just against Burnett, he goes 3-for-15 with three homers and 12 strikeouts).
* Oakland’s rotation trio of Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez all make the All-Star team. And then to support that staff, the A’s infuse their weak offense by obtaining Arizona’s Kelly Johnson and Cleveland’s Grady Sizemore.
* The White Sox’s Gordon Beckham shakes off the sophomore blahs and finishes in the top 10 in the MVP race.
* Last year’s second-half breakout by Texas first baseman Mitch Moreland was no fluke.
* The Royals’ overflow of prospect talent begins to come in June with third baseman Mike Moustakas, and Kansas City becomes a tough late-season opponent. KC’s final 14 games are against the expected AL Central contenders: the White Sox, Twins and Tigers.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
MVP: Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies. He does something his idol, Derek Jeter, never has done by winning an MVP award. He noses out San Francisco’s brilliant Buster Posey. And, of course, Albert Pujols is in the conversation despite the distraction of his walk year.
CY YOUNG: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers. His team has a lot of dysfunction and a dubious closer (Jonathon Broxton), but a 2.85 ERA over age-21/22 seasons bodes well for this, his age-23 season. Beats out Josh Johnson and Roy Halladay.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Atlanta’s Freddie Freeman. The Braves finish in the top three in NL scoring, in part because Freeman helps to bring length to the lineup. If San Francisco can figure out how to get at-bats for the sweet-swinging Brandon Belt, he also will be in the conversation.
DON’T BE SURPRISED IF (Mets Edition) …
* Jose Reyes thrives, but the Mets don’t, and a July trade bidding war emerges among the Giants, Angels and Reds. Cincy obtains Reyes by dealing Homer Bailey and shortstop prospect Zack Cozart.
* Josh Thole increases his power to hit 35 doubles and 10 homers while Ike Davis and Angel Pagan validate that they are strong contributors, as well.
* Brad Emaus becomes a poor man’s Dan Uggla.
* The offense still is nothing more than middle of the pack because Carlos Beltran cannot get on the field enough and Jason Bay still does not conquer Citi Field in his second season as a Met.
* R.A. Dickey is the real thing, producing 200 innings and 15 wins; but Mike Pelfrey takes a step back, his ERA climbing toward 4.50 as the ace burden without Johan Santana around is too much for him.
DON’T BE SURPRISED IF (NL Edition) …
* Roy Halladay wins 20 as the Phillies’ rotation is brilliant. But Chase Utley plays just 90 games, Jimmy Rollins’ OPS falls for a fourth straight year into the .650s, and Philadelphia falls just short of the wild card.
* The Marlins decide their defense is too putrid to compete and obtain Mike Cameron from Boston and move Chris Coghlan to third.
* Cincinnati right fielder Jay Bruce becomes one of the game’s stars, rising into the top 10 in NL MVP voting.
* Milwaukee’s Prince Fielder puts on a walk-year power surge and heads into free agency off of a 50-homer season. But that is not enough to help the Brewers overcome woeful defense that undermines their additions of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum.
* Washington’s Bryce Harper is everything advertised, shoots through the minors and is called up to the majors before his 19th birthday.
* The Nationals’ Jordan Zimmermann emerges as a legitimate ace-level starter to provide a potential sidekick for the healing Stephen Strasburg.
* Mark DeRosa returns from a lost season due to injury to significantly help the Giants.
* Don Mattingly cannot rouse the troubled Dodgers to beyond 80 wins in his managerial debut season.
* Matt Garza is tremendous in the NL, going 18-9 with a 3.25 ERA for the Cubs.
* Despite losing ace Adam Wainwright, the Cardinals hang in the race because the Kyles — Lohse and McClellan — each win 12 games.