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It’s that nail-biting time of the year again, when networks hunker down and make life- or-death decisions for their shows — just in time to present their new lineups to prospective advertisers next month.
The big news this year is that many long-running TV staples are “on the bubble” — walking that thin line between renewal and cancellation.
And you can also add two hotshot, highly publicized first-year shows to that list, according to industry experts.
Some shows could be jettisoned simply to make room for new entries, while others are just performing so badly that their network simply can’t afford to make them anymore.
Here, in no particular order, are some “on-the-bubble” shows:
* “CSI: NY” (CBS). Despite a cast change and new Friday timeslot, the series is “in trouble,” says Adweek’s Marc Berman, because it’s only done “relatively well this season. At this point, the franchise is aging, it’s costly to keep and [in] moving it to Friday, it did come down in the ratings significantly.”
* “Chuck” (NBC). Media watchers are flummoxed each season when the NBC action comedy lives another day — so much so that “I’d be surprised if it wasn’t on the bubble,” says Brad Adgate, industry analyst at Horizon Media.
Ratings dropped from Season 1’s average 8.7 million viewers to a paltry 4.2 million viewers in the latest Season 4 episode.
* “Brothers & Sisters” (ABC). “It’s likely to be canceled at this point, just looking at the ratings,” says Robert Seidman of tvbythenumbers.com. He suspects that ABC will want to take advantage of whatever lead-in “Desperate Housewives” still provides to launch a new series.
* “One Tree Hill” (The CW). After eight seasons, “OTH” is the granddaddy of CW shows with slowly declining ratings to prove it. The series should have ended long before now, says Berman, “But at the moment, the CW is so weak that there’s the possibility that it’ll come back” simply because they lack any other big draws.
* “Law & Order: Los Angeles” (NBC). The “Law & Order” replacement, transplanted to the West Coast, is “very iffy,” Berman says. “NBC took it off the air, retooled it and moved it to Monday — and it’s flopping,” he says.
Adgate suspects that “L&O: LA” is the type of show that will wind up being a “game-time decision,” with NBC holding out for more trending info before making the call.
* “Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior” (CBS). Despite the usual success of CBS spinoffs and series star, Oscar-winner Forest Whitaker, it’s not looking good for the show. And, Adgate says, CBS has had such a successful TV season overall that it can afford to dump “Suspect Behavior,” despite its respectable 10 million viewers.
Ultimately, chances for renewal “depends on how strong CBS thinks their development slate is,” he says.