Three months after it threw away its despot, Egypt is trying to find its way to a different and hopefully better life.
Pessimists claim Egypt may’ve already lost its way. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has warned that Egypt’s “Arab Spring” may end up as “a mirage in the desert.”
Optimists pretend that democracy has already dawned over the Nile. French President Nicolas Sarkozy speaks of “a new Egypt” that would help create his dream “Euro-Mediterranean democratic space.”
The real picture is somewhat different.
The bad news:
* A faction in the military has concluded an alliance with the Muslim Brotherhood to slow down democratization.
* Radical groups are trying to foment war between Muslims and Christians. Since April, sectarian riots have claimed at least 150 lives.
* Hundreds of prisoners convicted of terrorism have been released, providing a recruitment pool for jihadists.
* The interim government refuses to lift the state of emergency or disband the secret service.
*The economy is in recession, partly due to meltdown in the tourism industry.
Yet, overall, there’s more good news than bad. Almost all Egyptians think they’ve had a great revolution in which every one of them had a part. This gives Egyptians, humiliated by successive jackboots, a new sense of pride. After all, every nation worth its salt has had a revolution — so why not Egypt?
This new myth binds together Egyptians, beyond the shopworn myths of Arabism and/or Islamism.
Even body language has changed. Egyptians, who walked half bent and as close to walls as possible, now walk like Gary Cooper in “High Noon.”
More important, perhaps, Egyptians are developing a taste for elections as a means of choosing leaders and policies. Over the last three months, the country has witnessed countless elections. In March, in a record turnout, some 77 percent of voters approved constitutional amendments.
Scores of elections have renewed the leadership of trade unions, student associations and bodies representing key professions. Under despotic rule, the secret service appointed their leaders.
These elections provide a snapshot of Egyptian opinion. In almost every instance, pro-democracy coalitions won, seizing control of key levers of civil society.
The Muslim Brotherhood and its more radical Islamist allies seldom won more than a quarter of the vote. Even in their traditional stronghold of Alexandria, the “Brothers” suffered defeats in voting for trade unions and student associations.
Attempts at injecting anti-American and anti-Israeli slogans into the public debate have failed. A pro-Hamas group’s calls for a protest in front of the Israeli embassy in Cairo last week drew just 30 individuals.
Nor are pro-democracy forces lowering their guard. In April, they held a “Day of Cleansing” aimed at exposing crimes by the secret services (set up with the help of the Soviet KGB) and pressing the interim government to bring corruption charges against key figures of the despotic regime.
Last week, a dozen pro-democracy parties and groups set up the Egyptian National Congress to prepare for parliamentary elections in September and presidential elections in November.
This heralds a secularist bloc to counter the alliance between part of the military and the Islamists.
Also good news is the media’s determination to break out of its shackles. Newspapers, magazines and radio and TV channels that for decades had specialized in hiding things rather than informing the public have transformed themselves beyond recognition. Despite some excesses, the result is encouraging.
What can outsiders do?
America, which still has great influence in Egyptian business and military circles, should tone down its pessimistic musings and support Egypt’s democratization.
Washington can act, too, by redirecting part of its aid to help Egypt out of recession. It could also persuade the European Union to invest in new Egypt.
Western democracies will have a great impact on the coming elections. A positive attitude would help pro-democracy parties; a negative one could prop up anti-Western reactionary forces, including Islamists.