The Post’s panel of experts provides its picks for the 137th Kentucky Derby, to be run Saturday at Churchill Downs.
A field of 20 is set to take to the starting gate for the 6:24 p.m. post time.
Ed Fountaine
BRILLIANT SPEED: In a 20-horse field with two vulnerable favorites, might as well shoot for the moon with a 30-1 shot coming off a fast-closing win in a Grade 1 stakes. Street Sense in 2007 and Paddy O’Prado last year both came out of the Blue Grass on Polytrack to run big races in the Derby, and Brilliant Speed has the running style and pedigree to handle a mile-and-a-quarter on dirt.
ARCHARCHARCH: The Arkansas Derby has been a key prep for the Kentucky Derby in recent years, and Archarcharch turned in a game effort rallying to win it in his last start. He’s bred for the distance and has worked well over the Churchill strip.
DIALED IN: This Florida Derby-winning son of Mineshaft has finished full of run in all four starts and broke his maiden at Churchill last fall.
LONG SHOT: Shackleford
Ray Kerrison
ARCHARCHARCH: Coming off brilliant, relatively fast Arkansas Derby win, he loomed a Derby lock in my book — then he drew the kiss-of-death rail and suddenly his chances diminished severely.
His 50-year-old jockey, with no Derby experience, will need to ride race of his life to get the job done. But Archie still has the best performance, fastest Beyer speed fig and certainly has trained over the track better than any rival.
DIALED IN: Dramatic come-from-behind closer, he sports near flawless profile. Won Florida Derby in a heart-stopper, gets terrific jockey to suit his style, and has drawn dream post in 8. The one to beat.
MUCHO MACHO MAN: Really seasoned colt with eight lifetime starts, off the board only once, has run with all the best of them and has galloped 14 miles over the Churchill strip in the last week alone.
LONG SHOT: Shackleford
John DaSilva
MUCHO MACHO MAN: Kathy Ritvo trainee could be the horse that has worked the best prepping for the Derby. He ran a tremendous race to be third in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby despite losing a shoe. The June foal has grown physically since that race and his breeding suggests the distance should not be a problem.
DIALED IN: The morning-line favorite has worked well at Palm Meadows after winning the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Nick Zito is no stranger to winning the Derby and his runner Ice Box finished second in this race last year.
MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE: Came off a maiden victory to win the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Despite lack of experience, the rapidly improving Bob Baffert trainee has been working a series of bullets for this race.
LONG SHOT: Santiva
Vic Cangialosi
MUCHO MACHO MAN: Found his stride in February winning two-turn stake while swung wide on turn for home. Impressive. On the board 7 of 8 times while being tangled at the start in only miss. Connections very confident about distance and should be most attractive price among real contenders.
DIALED IN: Will be very difficult keeping him out of the winner’s circle. Exciting stretch runner may not have run his best race yet and is peaking at right moment. Zito threat should be showing up with about half-mile to got passing lots of wannabes. Dangerous, confident and short price is justified.
UNCLE MO: Gotta go to Mo? Well, not quite. In fact we’re not sure he’ll make it to the gate. Disturbing loss in the Wood after leading by 1 1⁄2 lengths in midstretch. Was gastrointestinal inflammation to blame or did he hit a wall going 1 1⁄8 miles?
LONG SHOT: Master Of Hounds
Anthony Affrunti
BRILLIANT SPEED: Pedigree says distance for race usually run in waves. Horses move at quarter-pole and run out of steam. This guy can make that prolonged run, and if kickback is no problem he should be that late consistent runner on this surface. Price is right.
COMMA TO THE TOP: The lone gelding in this field has nothing else but run in his loins. Enters this with a front-end style that will enable him to be free from early trouble. Already hit lottery at post draw, may take them the whole way.
DIALED IN: Late running style and will need a lot of luck through stretch run, but rider more than capable of steering through traffic. Trainer Zito knows how to get them ready for the big show.
LONG SHOT: Twice the Appeal