ST. PAUL, Minn. — Repeat after me.
Unless a team is a serious Stanley Cup contender prepared to shoot the moon in an attempt to win, it is not about this year.
Instead, it is about maintaining maximum flexibility coming out of next summer’s NHL labor negotiations that are sure to yield a dramatically reduced cap.
The last two Stanley Cup winners in Chicago and Boston emerged from the canceled 2004-05 season with few player commitments, thereby allowing those clubs to pick and choose — and survive blunders — in amassing personnel under a hard cap.
That’s the model that should be followed entering this final season under the current collective bargaining agreement.
Donald Fehr’s unbeaten record on the diamond isn’t going to mean the NHLPA will be able to withstand the NHL’s push to slice, dice and take back whatever it can. The percentage of the gross is going down in the NFL. The percentage of the gross is going down in the NBA. And the percentage of the gross will be going down in the NHL beginning in 2012-13.
Gary Bettman’s utopia proved nothing of the sort. The entire concept of “gross revenue” in the NHL is fraudulent. Teams do not pool their revenue under any circumstance other than to arrive at a figure that’s then used to calculate the cap.
The entire premise of linkage the commissioner posited through the last owners’ lockout — that would all but ensure every franchise would be in position to make a profit — is counterfeit. It never made the slightest bit of sense the Islanders’ minimum payroll would be dependent on the Rangers’ revenues or the Hurricanes would have to spend more because the Maple Leafs make more money year after year after year.
But common sense doesn’t matter. Percentage of the gross is Bettman’s baby. It is not going away. It is, however, going down, and if the owners have their way, it is going down dramatically, to somewhere in the range of 48-to-50 percent.
Beyond that, there will be a push to include minor-league contracts under the cap, to impose stringent term limits on deal, to transform the mid-point into the ceiling; to, in effect, claw back everything with which the tattered union emerged in 2005.
This isn’t a screed about the owners or the league or the relentless push in this society for the wealthy to become wealthier. This isn’t about the players. Not today, anyway. This is simply about pointing out the way of the future. The cap is going down. Club maneuverability is going to be limited. Mistakes will be far more difficult to erase. Big market fans will prop up the small market franchises.
The only way to prevent chaos — anarchy! — under a dramatically reduced cap is to effect a rollback accompanied by amnesty buyouts. But it is inconceivable Fehr, who is earning $3 million per as head of the PA (three times more than he earned as head of the baseball players’ union) would preside over a rollback in his one and only negotiation with Bettman and the Board of Governors.
This weekend has produced insanity. Columbus and Jeff Carter for more than a decade? Good luck. The Kings and Mike Richards for almost a decade? Good luck. The Panthers and Brian Campbell for five more years at more than $7 million per? Well, that’s Dale Tallon for you.
The inevitability of a dramatically reduced cap is the reason the Rangers cannot, simply cannot, get into a wild bidding war for Brad Richards, regardless of his unimpeachable immediate value.
General manager Glen Sather cannot, simply cannot, put the team in handcuffs coming out of the next round of negotiations. With or without a rollback, dozens of players will be available after mechanisms are imposed to allow teams to get under a reduced cap.
If the Rangers were one player away — were one Richards away — from winning the Cup this season, it would be different. But they’re not. Anyone who paid attention to the playoffs would have to recognize that reality.
It is, therefore, Sather’s charge to maintain maximum flexibility going into 2012-13 just the way the Blackhawks and Bruins did going into 2005-06.
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The NHL’s slow but steady push to eliminate head shots gained a bit more traction at last week’s Board meeting when Bettman informed the Governors the league would indeed impose significant fines against clubs with repeat offenders, Slap Shots has learned.
The fines were not specified — this is a developing policy — but the commissioner is committed to the program first proposed in March by Pittsburgh chairman Mario Lemieux.
It represents another step in the right direction.
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Kirk Muller, hailed for the job he has done as Jacques Martin‘s assistant coach in Montreal, was told by clubs with whom he interviewed for a head coaching position that he needs to run an AHL team before he’s in position to get an NHL job.
Muller is going to be a good one. But it’s imperative he Devils’ first young marquee athlete, who has interest from AHL Houston and Chicago, join an organization with a solid structure.
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Finally, have you heard the new idiom coming out of the Panthers’ trade for Campbell? Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, I’m Dale Tallon.