The Yankees have the best record in the American League and the worst record against the Red Sox.
Which carries the most influence with the trade deadline a month away?
Organizations generally try to build a team good enough to reach the playoffs, and, at this moment, the two AL teams with the best postseason chances are the Yankees and Red Sox: Baseball Prospectus’ playoff odds calibration had Boston with a 94.2 percent chance of playing into October and the Yankees at 87.1 percent.
“My job is to reduce that 13 percent risk that we won’t make the playoffs,” general manager Brian Cashman said.
To do that, however, should the Yankees keep the Red Sox specifically in mind? Because it does feel as if the Canyon of Heroes goes through Boston. The Yankees have at least nine and potentially as many as 16 games left against the Red Sox. They were 1-8 in the first half against Boston and repeating such failure in the second half would further open a door for a team such as Tampa Bay to overtake the Yankees.
Yes, there is a lot of season left for all kinds of twists and turns and, yes, the playoffs are fickle, but today what do you think the odds are of a Red Sox-Yankees ALCS? Twenty-five percent? Thirty? Forty? And if the teams are on a collision course, do the Yankees have to pay attention that Boston’s OPS against righty pitching is 24 points higher than any other team’s?
There was a moment when the Yankees imagined a 2011 roster that would include Cliff Lee, Andy Pettitte and Pedro Feliciano, which would have made them armed — left-armed, in fact — to deal with Boston’s lefty-leaning might. But now all the Yankees have is CC Sabathia’s brilliance and Boone Logan’s undependability.
“One of our areas of weakness is the left side, but I can’t force it,” Cashman said. “I can’t make it happen if it is not there.”
Another Yankees official said, “A lefty would help. But I don’t think it is live or die. You tend to make mistakes when you focus on one thing. If we go to the deadline only thinking about lefty pitching versus the Red Sox, we are going to screw up the trade deadline.”
Also, the Red Sox are determined to add a righty-hitting outfielder (a Michael Cuddyer type) before the deadline to better counter lefty pitching.
There just is not a lot available right now as teams have turned their attention fully from the draft to the trade deadline. The initial read is that there are not going to be a lot of attractive pitching pieces in the market.
Cashman’s early read, in fact, is “I don’t think I can trade for any starter that is better than Bartolo Colon or Phil Hughes, or a reliever better than Rafael Soriano.”
Cashman believes the Yankees could have Colon, Hughes and Eric Chavez off the disabled list by a week from today and Soriano later in July. Cashman is more dubious that he will get either of his lefty relievers — Feliciano or Damaso Marte — back and said he is proceeding on the market as if he will not.
“Do the Yankees really have significant needs? I don’t think so,” one AL executive said. “They are not doing better in this market than Colon coming off the DL. I know Colon is old and risky, but the risk in the market is just as great. I think the Yanks end up doing something because they are the Yankees and can’t help themselves.”
If Colon and Hughes are effective, then suddenly the Yankees actually would have to remove someone from the rotation (probably Ivan Nova). But one AL personnel man said, “They are not going to get everyone healthy and pitching well at one time, and they have a $200 million product. Are they really not going to get another starter?”
But what starter? There are no obvious aces, and Cashman has indicated to other organizations that the prospects needed to land an ace — Manuel Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Jesus Montero and Austin Romine — are close to untouchable. That could just be brinksmanship, especially since Montero has been available previously, including for Cliff Lee last year.
As the AL executive said, “[Montero] is struggling offensively [at Triple-A], and we think he is non-athlete who cannot catch, so you might be getting a DH. He may be losing value.”
Still, the Yankees have a deep system. For example, if they put Nova and Hector Noesi into one deal they would be offering up two arms that could project to Nos. 3-4 starters who are making a pittance and are under control for years. When I ran that scenario by an NL official, he said, “That has great value.”
However, you need a trade partner. The Yankees have shown no interest in high-cost veterans with dubious stuff such as the Astros’ Brett Myers, the Cubs’ Carlos Zambrano and Ryan Dempster, the White Sox’s Edwin Jackson or the Nationals’ Livan Hernandez and Jason Marquis.
“Famous names, but names that might not be as good as Nova, especially when you factor in cost in prospects and dollars” in the words of one Yankees official.
The lefty starting market is weak. Oakland has shown no inclination to move Gio Gonzalez, especially with fellow lefties Brett Anderson and Dallas Braden out with arm injuries. The White Sox might have considered shopping John Danks, but now he is on the DL for the first time in his career with a strained oblique.
When I asked if the Dodgers’ financial plight is such that they would consider dealing Clayton Kershaw before his first arbitration year for a boatload of prospects, an NL personnel man said, “MLB will treat the Dodgers like the Rangers last year and will not sell off parts because they want it to be as attractive to prospective buyers as possible.”
The likely available lefties are Houston’s Wandy Rodriguez and Minnesota’s Francisco Liriano. Rodriguez has a good curve, but his chances of being even above average going from the NL Central to the AL East are not good.
As for Liriano, an AL scout said, “His own organization doesn’t like him. He started Game 1 of the playoffs last year, and they never even talked about signing him long-term. That is because they bump heads about his style; they want contact, he wants strikeouts, and they know he is an injury waiting to happen. He has the stuff to hold a good team to one run in seven innings and the erratic style to give up six runs in two innings and the delivery to be on the DL 10 days after you get him. So what do you give up for that?”
As for righties, there has been some buzz that the Braves, desperate for offense, could use their rotation depth and trade a starter such as Jair Jurrjens. But the Yankees’ policy has become pretty much to run away from Atlanta pitching after having successful Braves hurlers such as Javier Vazquez, Kyle Farnsworth, Jaret Wright, Steve Karsay, Chris Hammond, Denny Neagle and Soriano blow up on them.
The Dodgers might move Hiroki Kuroda, and the Yankees were interested in the righty as a free agent. However, at that time the Yankees could not have imagined having Colon and Freddy Garcia pitching well for them. Also, Kuroda signed a one-year deal because he wanted to stay in Los Angeles and he might not agree to a trade or could want some kind of extension (that the Yankees would not offer) to move.
Two interesting cases to watch are the Cubs’ Matt Garza and the Marlins’ Anibal Sanchez. Cubs brass was said to be meeting this week to decide whether to be sellers. Garza has some kinship with A.J. Burnett — big stuff that has not translated to a big record, a tendency to wear out his welcome and (like the pre-Yankees Burnett) a strong record against the Red Sox. Garza is 9-4 against Boston, including 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA in two ALCS games in 2008. Will the Cubs decide to recoup the prospects they gave up for Garza and go into a complete rebuild mode?
Sanchez is a free agent after the 2012 season, and, unlike Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco, Florida has shown no inclination to go long-term with a pitcher who has had arm problems in his past.
When it comes to relievers, the Padres, according to multiple officials, want to get out in the market quickly with Heath Bell and Chad Qualls; word is the Cardinals are trying to land Bell and shortstop Jason Bartlett. The Yankees are more interested in Mike Adams, who is earmarked as San Diego’s closer of the future and would come with that price tag. Washington is willing to move ex-Yankee Tyler Clippard, but specifically is looking for a center fielder and has focused on the Rays’ B.J. Upton.
The lefty relief market is even more unappealing right now. Another ex-Yankee, Randy Choate, probably could be had. Or the Yankees could wait until August because overpaid, under-performing types such as Oakland’s Brian Fuentes and Baltimore’s Mike Gonzalez will get through waivers and — as with Kerry Wood last year — perhaps they will try to find success with a veteran who was struggling elsewhere.
joel.sherman@nypost.com